ATL: IRENE - Models

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AHS2011
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Re: ATL: INVEST 97L - Models

#881 Postby AHS2011 » Fri Aug 19, 2011 2:33 pm

Correct me if I'm wrong but is this hypothesis correct? The quicker this storm develops, the greater chance it has of going northward, and the slower this storm develops, the greater chance it has of going into the gulf.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 97L-Models

#882 Postby lancewilson » Fri Aug 19, 2011 2:35 pm

wxman57 wrote:Near Orlando Saturday morning on the Euro. Note the 2 other storms in the Atlantic to the east.


Well I for one don't like that at all.
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#883 Postby gatorcane » Fri Aug 19, 2011 2:36 pm

Yep, looks like it hit that large weakness over the FL peninsula in the 12Z Euro. Euro quite consitent on a FL peninsula / EGOM threat though we are still in the long-range....that is incredible how much the system intensifies over the FL Straits as it heads north over the peninsula.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 97L - Models

#884 Postby Wx_Warrior » Fri Aug 19, 2011 2:36 pm

From JB:

Euro right on top of Cleo track in 1964. My track a bit further west.. see weatherbell.com post on that if you are curious
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#885 Postby gatorcane » Fri Aug 19, 2011 2:37 pm

Disney World anybody? :eek:

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Re: ATL: INVEST 97L - Models

#886 Postby AdamFirst » Fri Aug 19, 2011 2:37 pm

Image

Nowhere to hide if this scenario verifies.
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Re:

#887 Postby Ivanhater » Fri Aug 19, 2011 2:38 pm

gatorcane wrote:Yep, looks like it hit that large weakness over the FL peninsula in the 12Z Euro. Euro quite consitent on a FL peninsula / EGOM threat though we are still in the long-range....that is incredible how much the system intensifies over the FL Straits as it heads north over the peninsula.


Well moves NW from the west coast of Florida into the Eastern Florida Panhandle but I agree...this looks like a problem for the Gulf/Florida, not so much for the East coast. Things could still change though.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 97L - Models

#888 Postby Aric Dunn » Fri Aug 19, 2011 2:38 pm

slight shift east with the consensus models.

and bam s for 18z


the bam models are being initilized farther north than the rest.. could be why they are farther north in the long run..
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Re:

#889 Postby Ivanhater » Fri Aug 19, 2011 2:39 pm

gatorcane wrote:Disney World anybody? :eek:



Glad I went to Orlando earlier this Summer :wink:
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#890 Postby OuterBanker » Fri Aug 19, 2011 2:39 pm

RIP Fla!
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#891 Postby HouTXmetro » Fri Aug 19, 2011 2:40 pm

Looks like the North Central Gulf/West Coast Florida region seems to be the emerging consensus...
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#892 Postby gatorcane » Fri Aug 19, 2011 2:40 pm

All kidding aside, I could easily see the models keep shifting west slowly though, especially because it is not developing very quickly....heck for all we know it could even be Texas again by the end of the weekend....

and Ivan I would be watching very closely if I were you with that large weakness the Euro is showing...
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Re: Re:

#893 Postby caneseddy » Fri Aug 19, 2011 2:41 pm

Ivanhater wrote:
gatorcane wrote:Disney World anybody? :eek:



Glad I went to Orlando earlier this Summer :wink:


Funny thing is I'm going to be in Orlando from Sunday-Wednesday for a conference... :lol:
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Re:

#894 Postby Tireman4 » Fri Aug 19, 2011 2:41 pm

gatorcane wrote:All kidding aside, I could easily see the models keep shifting west slowly though, especially because it is not developing very quickly....heck for all we know it could even be Texas again by the end of the weekend....

and Ivan I would be watching very closely if I were you...



Or anywhere....LOL
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Re:

#895 Postby Ivanhater » Fri Aug 19, 2011 2:44 pm

gatorcane wrote:All kidding aside, I could easily see the models keep shifting west slowly though, especially because it is not developing very quickly....heck for all we know it could even be Texas again by the end of the weekend....

and Ivan I would be watching very closely if I were you with that large weakness the Euro is showing...


You too Gator, the angle of the possible turn is going to be a big factor. I do not seeing this getting picked up by a trough and turned out to sea though. I'm sure the media will be on this one shortly.
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Re:

#896 Postby Scorpion » Fri Aug 19, 2011 2:44 pm

gatorcane wrote:All kidding aside, I could easily see the models keep shifting west slowly though, especially because it is not developing very quickly....heck for all we know it could even be Texas again by the end of the weekend....

and Ivan I would be watching very closely if I were you with that large weakness the Euro is showing...


Its developing right on schedule...
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Re: Re:

#897 Postby Aric Dunn » Fri Aug 19, 2011 2:49 pm

Scorpion wrote:
gatorcane wrote:All kidding aside, I could easily see the models keep shifting west slowly though, especially because it is not developing very quickly....heck for all we know it could even be Texas again by the end of the weekend....

and Ivan I would be watching very closely if I were you with that large weakness the Euro is showing...


Its developing right on schedule...


Actually this afternoon it has made a substantial increase in organization. IT could end of developing a little earlier giving the progress today.
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#898 Postby PTrackerLA » Fri Aug 19, 2011 2:50 pm

Ivan looks like Euro ensembles suggest a MS/SE LA landfall.
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Re:

#899 Postby Ivanhater » Fri Aug 19, 2011 2:59 pm

PTrackerLA wrote:Ivan looks like Euro ensembles suggest a MS/SE LA landfall.


GFS Ensembles do, as well as last night's Euro Ensembles. 12Z Euro Ensembles will be out shortly.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 97L - Models

#900 Postby PTrackerLA » Fri Aug 19, 2011 3:02 pm

Ah I somehow read Euro...long friday already with work and watching the tropics :wink: .
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