ATL: EMILY - Remnants

[wxman57]

Recon isn't finding much there. Certainly nothing down at 26N. Miami radar is looking at 15,000 ft, by the way. Maybe a weak swirl north of Grand Bahama Island near 27N. Winds 5-10 kts and variable over a large area. Pressure around 1013mb. No TD, that's for sure. Mid level vorticity is moving at a fair clip to the north, too. Florida won't get much rain out of this.

[GCANE]

Outflow boundary shot out to the NE.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/flash-vis.html

[HURAKAN]

[NDG]

You can tell that the mid level circulation is a bit displaced from the surface COC found.

[artist]

000
URNT15 KNHC 061946
AF307 1405A INVEST HDOB 19 20110806
193630 2807N 07806W 9781 00303 0121 +249 +234 089012 013 000 001 03
193700 2808N 07805W 9761 00322 0125 +245 +229 094010 011 /// /// 03
193730 2808N 07803W 9775 00317 0131 +245 +229 077007 007 000 002 03
193800 2807N 07802W 9779 00311 0130 +245 +231 068007 008 /// /// 03
193830 2805N 07801W 9779 00312 0130 +245 +233 055009 009 000 000 03
193900 2803N 07800W 9779 00311 0129 +245 +230 053008 008 001 000 03
193930 2801N 07800W 9780 00309 0128 +245 +228 046008 009 000 001 03
194000 2759N 07759W 9779 00309 0128 +245 +226 049007 007 000 002 03
194030 2757N 07759W 9780 00308 0128 +245 +227 048006 007 000 001 03
194100 2756N 07758W 9781 00307 0128 +245 +230 054006 007 000 001 03
194130 2754N 07757W 9781 00306 0127 +245 +231 060006 006 000 001 03
194200 2752N 07757W 9779 00307 0127 +245 +233 079005 006 000 001 03
194230 2750N 07756W 9779 00307 0126 +245 +232 101006 006 000 002 03
194300 2748N 07755W 9779 00307 0126 +244 +234 108005 005 000 001 03
194330 2746N 07755W 9781 00305 0125 +245 +228 079004 004 000 000 00
194400 2745N 07754W 9781 00305 0125 +245 +227 074003 004 001 002 00
194430 2743N 07754W 9780 00305 0124 +247 +223 022001 001 000 000 03
194500 2741N 07753W 9780 00303 0123 +250 +221 316001 002 000 002 03
194530 2739N 07752W 9781 00305 0124 +249 +217 240001 002 000 000 03
194600 2737N 07752W 9778 00305 0123 +250 +219 221001 002 001 000 03
$$
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[HURAKAN]

[gatorcane]

When I loop this VIS floater, certainly looks like a mid-level circulation is headed WNW......convection creeping closer to SE Florida...

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/loop-vis.html

[AdamFirst]

When I loop this VIS floater, certainly looks like a mid-level circulation is headed WNW......convection creeping closer to SE Florida...

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/loop-vis.html

Seems to be dying on radar. Will there be anything left, IF it does get here?

[artist]

in all honesty, they have flown nothing but the far north end which doesn't look like much on satellite yet. i want to see what they find when they start going further south. They have been around Abaco which is off the Palm Beach coast.

[artist]

000
URNT15 KNHC 061956
AF307 1405A INVEST HDOB 20 20110806
194630 2736N 07751W 9781 00305 0124 +246 +228 171003 004 000 001 00
194700 2734N 07750W 9780 00303 0123 +249 +227 164005 006 000 000 03
194730 2732N 07749W 9778 00305 0123 +247 +231 167003 004 000 001 03
194800 2730N 07749W 9777 00308 0124 +246 +230 181008 010 011 002 03
194830 2729N 07748W 9776 00307 0122 +245 +231 175009 011 014 000 00
194900 2727N 07748W 9777 00306 0121 +247 +225 182006 006 010 000 00
194930 2725N 07748W 9778 00306 0124 +243 +224 195009 012 008 000 03
195000 2723N 07747W 9781 00302 0123 +236 +230 201013 014 009 000 00
195030 2722N 07746W 9778 00306 0124 +240 +219 198012 013 007 000 00
195100 2720N 07746W 9781 00303 0124 +235 +224 205012 012 007 000 00
195130 2718N 07745W 9778 00305 0124 +239 +216 203010 011 005 000 00
195200 2716N 07745W 9780 00303 0124 +240 +212 198010 010 004 000 00
195230 2715N 07744W 9780 00305 0124 +241 +212 196008 009 011 000 00
195300 2713N 07743W 9780 00305 0126 +231 +217 189009 010 022 001 00
195330 2711N 07743W 9779 00306 0126 +230 +223 190008 009 020 004 00
195400 2709N 07742W 9779 00307 0127 +234 +221 189008 009 018 001 00
195430 2707N 07742W 9778 00308 0127 +237 +228 169008 009 006 000 00
195500 2706N 07741W 9779 00305 0125 +241 +221 168006 007 000 001 03
195530 2704N 07740W 9779 00306 0126 +239 +223 162004 005 000 000 03
195600 2702N 07740W 9778 00306 0127 +235 +233 163005 006 /// /// 03

[gatorcane]

When I loop this VIS floater, certainly looks like a mid-level circulation is headed WNW......convection creeping closer to SE Florida...

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/loop-vis.html

Seems to be dying on radar. Will there be anything left, IF it does get here?

Looping the radar shows the rain shield getting closer slowly...

I still think it doesn't get it here, but wouldn't be surpised if it ends up about 5-10 miles offshore before stopping its westward movement

What a teaser

[Jevo]

Florida won't get much rain out of this.

Heh maybe not most of Florida, but my lawn just happens to be sitting right under the moisture train that is currently over N Broward County .. Radar estimates and the puddle of water in my wife's flower bed show 3-5 inches in the last hour..

On track I do agree with the rest of you analysis

[gatorcane]

Looking at NWS MIam radar, there is a distinct spin in the thunderstorm activity east of South Palm Beach county.....no movement:

http://radar.weather.gov/radar.php?rid= ... 1&loop=yes

[artist]

000
URNT15 KNHC 062006
AF307 1405A INVEST HDOB 21 20110806
195630 2700N 07739W 9782 00303 0125 +239 +224 161005 006 000 000 03
195700 2659N 07739W 9780 00306 0125 +241 +223 161004 004 000 002 03
195730 2657N 07738W 9777 00309 0127 +240 +228 174004 005 000 000 03
195800 2655N 07737W 9779 00307 0126 +240 +228 185004 005 000 002 03
195830 2653N 07737W 9787 00299 0125 +240 +228 239003 004 /// /// 03
195900 2652N 07738W 9779 00307 0126 +243 +220 044001 002 /// /// 03
195930 2650N 07740W 9782 00303 0126 +243 +224 005001 001 /// /// 03
200000 2649N 07741W 9774 00309 0127 +240 +228 348001 001 /// /// 03
200030 2648N 07743W 9778 00308 0127 +240 +230 084001 003 /// /// 03
200100 2647N 07744W 9778 00308 0126 +240 +230 013002 003 /// /// 03
200130 2645N 07746W 9780 00305 0126 +244 +228 001001 002 /// /// 03
200200 2644N 07747W 9782 00303 0125 +244 +231 058001 002 /// /// 03
200230 2642N 07749W 9778 00309 0126 +245 +229 075001 002 /// /// 03
200300 2641N 07750W 9780 00305 0125 +245 +233 294001 001 /// /// 03
200330 2640N 07752W 9781 00307 0127 +245 +229 280004 005 /// /// 03
200400 2638N 07753W 9777 00308 0126 +246 +224 285004 005 /// /// 03
200430 2637N 07755W 9780 00307 0126 +248 +217 280005 005 /// /// 03
200500 2636N 07756W 9781 00306 0126 +246 +218 275005 006 /// /// 03
200530 2634N 07758W 9778 00307 0125 +245 +218 281005 006 /// /// 03
200600 2633N 07759W 9781 00305 0125 +242 +225 283008 009 /// /// 03

[HURAKAN]

[artist]

Looking at NWS MIam radar, there is a distinct spin in the thunderstorm activity east of South Palm Beach county.....no movement:

http://radar.weather.gov/radar.php?rid= ... 1&loop=yes

I see it closer to Ft. Lauderdale.

[cycloneye]

Very,very off-topic=We may have Franklin by late next week. At Talking Tropics forum,you will see the details.

[Aric Dunn]

yeah mid level not moving really .. neither is the surface circ.. I believe it just keeps trying to reform near the convection.. convection now beginning to develop closer to the coast... as the pressure drops the circ should get a little bigger.

[gatorcane]

Very,very off-topic=We may have Franklin by late next week. At Talking Tropics forum,you will see the details.

Franklin is the CAT 3 monster that plows into SC/NC in the GFS longe-range right?

I was reading through that thread actually...

Thankfully its 1) the GFS and 2) long-range and probably will not verify.

[artist]

000
URNT15 KNHC 062016
AF307 1405A INVEST HDOB 22 20110806
200630 2632N 07801W 9785 00302 0126 +238 +227 284009 010 /// /// 03
200700 2630N 07802W 9778 00306 0126 +235 +225 277010 011 /// /// 03
200730 2629N 07804W 9780 00306 0126 +237 +214 270010 011 /// /// 03
200800 2628N 07805W 9778 00307 0126 +239 +206 269011 012 /// /// 03
200830 2627N 07806W 9780 00305 0126 +234 +218 279010 010 /// /// 03
200900 2625N 07808W 9778 00306 0127 +230 +224 287010 010 /// /// 03
200930 2624N 07809W 9779 00307 0128 +229 +224 290011 012 /// /// 03
201000 2623N 07811W 9781 00303 0127 +228 +224 281011 012 /// /// 03
201030 2621N 07812W 9779 00306 0126 +230 +220 279012 013 /// /// 03
201100 2620N 07814W 9777 00306 0125 +230 +223 282010 011 /// /// 03
201130 2619N 07815W 9780 00305 0126 +230 +226 289010 011 /// /// 03
201200 2617N 07817W 9779 00306 0126 +233 +223 298011 012 /// /// 03
201230 2616N 07818W 9778 00308 0127 +232 +225 304011 012 /// /// 03
201300 2615N 07819W 9780 00306 0127 +235 +228 308012 012 /// /// 03
201330 2614N 07821W 9778 00308 0128 +235 +227 309012 013 /// /// 03
201400 2613N 07823W 9778 00309 0129 +234 //// 321017 018 001 000 05
201430 2612N 07825W 9779 00307 0130 +231 //// 326019 020 016 001 01
201500 2610N 07826W 9775 00313 0131 +225 //// 308025 029 028 004 05
201530 2610N 07828W 9783 00303 0129 +223 //// 302028 029 033 002 05
201600 2608N 07829W 9778 00312 0133 +224 //// 292030 031 032 003 01
$$
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