ATL: EMILY - Remnants

[wjs3]

Real headline from Yahoo (Reuters feed):

"Storm Emily kills four, may reform over Caribbean"

Caribbean? Really???

http://news.yahoo.com/storm-emily-kills ... 52846.html

Technically not wrong bc the Bahamas is considered to be part of the Caribbean

I'm sorry, that's not correct. See here, Caribbean ends (to the north) at the greater antilles.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Caribbean_Sea

[artist]

you would never think there could be a storm knocking on our doorstep today in here.

[Nikki]

Hi! Long time lurker here, don't really post much, but if she is in fact moving NW (I know recon will tell us more), wouldn't that mean she is defying the odds against what the NHC is saying....AGAIN?!? She sure has been one stubborn storm!!

[Sanibel]

This one might actually get a boost from the Gulf Stream.

[artist]

This one might actually get a boost from the Gulf Stream.

that has been my concern. You just never know! lol

[Aric Dunn]

its either stationary or drifting NW to NNW atm

[artist]

still waiting on more obs...

[Dave]

000
URNT15 KNHC 061646
AF307 1405A INVEST HDOB 01 20110806
163630 3007N 08900W 5975 04502 0172 +009 -029 105008 010 /// /// 03
163700 3005N 08859W 5850 04671 0172 -001 -055 105008 009 /// /// 03
163730 3003N 08859W 5715 04861 0151 -001 -088 120008 010 /// /// 03
163800 3002N 08858W 5573 05061 0133 -007 -067 154006 006 /// /// 03
163830 3000N 08858W 5429 05271 0309 -019 -044 173003 005 /// /// 03
163900 2958N 08858W 5308 05450 0321 -034 -043 189001 002 /// /// 03
163930 2957N 08857W 5204 05613 0334 -036 -058 097001 002 /// /// 03
164000 2955N 08857W 5174 05658 0338 -040 -061 111003 003 /// /// 03
164030 2953N 08856W 5100 05768 0342 -047 -067 119004 005 /// /// 03
164100 2951N 08856W 5012 05905 0349 -056 -077 146008 009 /// /// 03
164130 2949N 08855W 4929 06036 0357 -060 -090 139010 011 /// /// 03
164200 2947N 08855W 4851 06159 0364 -068 -097 137011 011 /// /// 03
164230 2945N 08854W 4793 06258 0374 -070 -131 153010 011 /// /// 03
164300 2943N 08854W 4773 06290 0377 -070 -137 153009 009 /// /// 03
164330 2942N 08853W 4744 06337 0377 -073 -151 156011 011 /// /// 03
164400 2941N 08851W 4666 06463 0384 -081 -164 147011 012 /// /// 03
164430 2940N 08848W 4576 06613 0393 -092 -206 143011 011 /// /// 03
164500 2939N 08846W 4504 06739 0403 -099 -229 146012 013 /// /// 03
164530 2939N 08844W 4466 06805 0409 -100 -283 149011 012 /// /// 03
164600 2938N 08842W 4459 06820 0411 -100 -330 155011 011 /// /// 03
$$
;

Hdobs restarted at 01

[HurricaneBrain]

I think it's slowly moving NW. NHC was expecting it to be going north-northeast at the position it's at right now.

[cycloneye]

Latest ASCAT made around 10:30 AM EDT shows a good circulation pattern.



Uploaded by Imageshack.us

[NDG]

The more I look at the vis sat loop as the day has gone by the more I believe that a piece of the surface circulation shooted off to the NNE, now collapsing, from the mid level circulation just off of Andros Island. You can clearly see an outflow boundary to the NE, this could be indicative of some NE dry shear also, similar to what happened to Don, that had outflow boundaries all to the time on its NE quadrant.
Now, the mid level circulation has stayed behind and I still see some inflow from the SW into it and from the NW also, so perhaps a new surface circulation might be trying to form underneath it if indeed it lost one earlier. Hopefully the recon will clarify things.

[artist]

seems obs were restarted at 01 now. Dave caught it.

[Dave]

237
URNT15 KNHC 061656
AF307 1405A INVEST HDOB 02 20110806
164630 2937N 08839W 4461 06817 0412 -100 -326 156011 011 /// /// 03
164700 2936N 08837W 4462 06816 0413 -100 -347 154011 012 /// /// 03
164730 2935N 08834W 4462 06816 0412 -099 -354 153011 012 /// /// 03
164800 2935N 08834W 4462 06816 0411 -100 -331 152010 010 /// /// 03
164830 2934N 08829W 4463 06813 0412 -100 -320 153010 010 /// /// 03
164900 2933N 08826W 4463 06815 0412 -100 -322 157010 011 /// /// 03
164930 2932N 08823W 4462 06817 0414 -100 -326 155011 011 /// /// 03
165000 2931N 08821W 4464 06809 0411 -100 -324 160010 011 /// /// 03
165030 2928N 08819W 4462 06817 0413 -101 -319 167008 008 /// /// 03
165100 2926N 08819W 4463 06816 0414 -104 -315 169008 009 /// /// 03
165130 2923N 08818W 4463 06815 0414 -104 -315 173009 009 /// /// 03
165200 2921N 08817W 4464 06816 0415 -105 -317 177008 009 /// /// 03
165230 2918N 08816W 4464 06812 0414 -107 -306 179009 010 /// /// 03
165300 2916N 08816W 4464 06812 0412 -105 -292 172010 010 /// /// 03
165330 2913N 08815W 4464 06810 0410 -104 -271 173009 010 /// /// 03
165400 2910N 08814W 4463 06811 0409 -100 -251 158008 009 /// /// 03
165430 2908N 08813W 4462 06812 0408 -099 -262 157006 008 /// /// 03
165500 2905N 08813W 4463 06810 0408 -100 -260 156007 008 /// /// 03
165530 2903N 08812W 4464 06809 0408 -100 -260 157007 008 /// /// 03
165600 2900N 08811W 4463 06810 0408 -099 -238 155007 008 /// /// 03
$$
;

[NDG]

[northjaxpro]

Observing Miami radar and visible satellite imagery, I believe the LLC is apporoximately midway between Grand Bahama Island and Andros Island, with a very slow NNW drift currently.

[Dave]

[Dave]

454
URNT15 KNHC 061706
AF307 1405A INVEST HDOB 03 20110806
165630 2857N 08810W 4464 06806 0407 -100 -220 149007 007 /// /// 03
165700 2855N 08810W 4462 06811 0407 -101 -232 145008 009 /// /// 03
165730 2852N 08809W 4463 06807 0405 -100 -229 133007 008 /// /// 03
165800 2850N 08808W 4464 06802 0404 -100 -219 130007 009 /// /// 03
165830 2847N 08808W 4464 06805 0404 -100 -203 131007 007 /// /// 03
165900 2844N 08807W 4461 06807 0401 -105 -193 133007 008 /// /// 03
165930 2843N 08804W 4467 06800 0402 -104 -182 139008 009 /// /// 03
170000 2842N 08801W 4463 06807 0404 -101 -189 145009 009 /// /// 03
170030 2841N 08758W 4464 06805 0404 -101 -186 144009 010 /// /// 03
170100 2840N 08756W 4462 06807 0404 -100 -193 143010 010 /// /// 03
170130 2839N 08753W 4464 06802 0403 -100 -198 135011 011 /// /// 03
170200 2838N 08750W 4463 06804 0403 -101 -197 134011 011 /// /// 03
170230 2836N 08748W 4464 06802 0402 -102 -198 139011 011 /// /// 03
170300 2835N 08745W 4463 06805 0403 -101 -197 137011 012 /// /// 03
170330 2834N 08742W 4464 06802 0403 -102 -200 135012 013 /// /// 03
170400 2834N 08739W 4464 06801 0402 -103 -194 136012 012 /// /// 03
170430 2833N 08736W 4463 06805 0403 -101 -196 133011 012 /// /// 03
170500 2832N 08733W 4464 06802 0403 -100 -216 131011 011 /// /// 03
170530 2831N 08730W 4467 06795 0401 -102 -196 135012 013 /// /// 03
170600 2831N 08728W 4463 06805 0403 -103 -201 131013 014 /// /// 03
$$
;

[CronkPSU]

come on "emily" keep coming NW- NNW for about 12 more hours, we can use the rain!!!

[NDG]

Might be too early to tell, but by the way recon is heading it seems like it will be entering from the SW quadrant of the system.

Edit: Never mind, it is now pointing to its NW quadrant.

[HurricaneWarning92]

The BAMM model is interesting. kinda like a jeanne solution but of course the loop farther away from land...