ATL: OPHELIA - Remnants - Discussion

[Blown Away]

TAFB says possible tropical cyclone in 72 hours.

[AdamFirst]

Looks like a repeat of Maria upcoming. Moving too fast to develop, plus walls of wind shear? Wake me up when it enters the Caribbean.

(Mods adds the disclaimer, I'm on my phone and can't copy/paste)



Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

*edited by southerngale to add the disclaimer

[clfenwi]

12Z Best track

AL, 98, 2011091912, , BEST, 0, 117N, 377W, 25, 1008



(edited to add satellite image)

[Gustywind]

From SSD...
19/1145 UTC 11.4N 37.8W TOO WEAK 98L -- Atlantic
19/0545 UTC 11.3N 37.0W TOO WEAK 98L

[Gustywind]

000
AXNT20 KNHC 191143
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT MON SEP 19 2011

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1015 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

A 1008 MB LOW IS EMBEDDED ALONG THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS NEAR
12N37W. TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY INDICATES THAT
LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE IS MAXIMIZED FROM 06N-14N BETWEEN 34W-42W.
SCATTERED MODERATE AND ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM
07N-15N BETWEEN 36W-40W. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS REMAIN
FAVORABLE FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A TROPICAL DEPRESSION DURING
THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

[Aric Dunn]

Well from the looks of it this morning its on its way except its still attached to the ITCZ which will slow down development a little. Also seems the wave behind it is splitting the low level flow. I do see a weak but noticeable circ about 12N 37 to 38W. basically not moving right now as the formative dynamics are still ongoing. will likely do a wobble to the wnw to NW before resuming a W motion as strong ridging builds in north of it. if a well defined circ does not become established before the ridging builds in then we may only see a weak TD or open wave till it approaches the Islands since it will be moving fast ( similar to Maria).

[clfenwi]

Unusual wording in today's recon POD. Flight penciled in for Thursday.

NOUS42 KNHC 191430
WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
1030 AM EDT MON 19 SEPTEMBER 2011
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
VALID 20/1100Z TO 21/1100Z SEPTEMBER 2011
TCPOD NUMBER.....11-111
I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISANCE REQUIREMENTS.
2. SUCCEEDING DAY OUTLOOK.....NEGATIVE.
3. ADDITIONAL DAY OUTLOOK: FIX A POTENTIAL TROPICAL
STORM NEAR 13.5N 52.5W AT 22/1800Z.
II. PACIFIC REQUIREMENTS
1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISANCE REQUIREMENTS.
2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY.....NEGATIVE.
JWP

[AdamFirst]

RECON must be bored. Haven't flown in a legit storm in weeks.

[cycloneye]

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 PM EDT MON SEP 19 2011

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY HAS NOT BECOME ANY BETTER ORGANIZED
IN ASSOCIATION WITH AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED ABOUT 1450
MILES EAST OF THE WINDWARD ISLANDS. HOWEVER...ENVIRONMENTAL
CONDITIONS STILL APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR A TROPICAL DEPRESSION TO FORM
DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THIS SYSTEM HAS A HIGH CHANCE...60
PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS
AS IT BEGINS TO MOVE WESTWARD AT 5 TO 10 MPH.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN

[Hylian Auree]

I'm sort of curious as to what track this will take. I see no reason for significant gain of latitude... maybe a smoothed slightly north of west motion till the Caribbean?

[cycloneye]

From the predict team,here is the discussion of the models of 98L.

http://www.met.nps.edu/~mtmontgo/P28L.html

SYNOPSIS 2011091900

P28L … 98L
11N, 37W
700 hPa

Stationary period should last for only a day or so. For that reason, I determined a phase speed for its subsequent westward motion. Result: The initial positions may be a little too far north.


ECMWF: Uncertain positions for the first 12 hours. Intensifies and moves westward, just a slight northward turn at the end of the five days.

GFS: Intensifies over the next few days. Stationary for one day, then tracks westward.

UKMET: Westward motion the entire time. Intensifies soon.

NOGAPS: Intensifies (although not as much as it intensifies 97L) and tracks westward.

HWRF-GEN: Similar to other models. Intensifies and moves westward.


ECMWF -7.4 v700 120h
GFS -6.8 v700 120h
UKMET -7.1 v700 120h
NOGAPS -6.8 v700 120h
HWGEN -7.4 v700 120h

[tobol.7uno]

Florida Storm?

[tobol.7uno]

Not expected to be very strong though...

[cycloneye]

18z Best Track

AL, 98, 2011091918, , BEST, 0, 117N, 387W, 25, 1008, DB

ftp://ftp.tpc.ncep.noaa.gov/atcf/tcweb/ ... 011.invest

[Blown Away]

72 hour TAFB still showing "Possible Tropical Cyclone" and keeping it at a low latitude.

[cycloneye]

18z Tropical Models.

Code: Select all

CHGHUR
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1825 UTC MON SEP 19 2011
 
DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.
 
ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR
 
DISTURBANCE INVEST (AL982011) 20110919 1800 UTC
 
        ...00 HRS...   ...12 HRS...   ...24 HRS. ..   ...36 HRS...
        110919  1800   110920  0600   110920  1800   110921  0600
 
         LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON
BAMS    11.7N  38.7W   11.8N  40.3W   12.0N  42.5W   12.2N  45.1W
BAMD    11.7N  38.7W   12.1N  40.0W   12.7N  41.7W   13.3N  43.7W
BAMM    11.7N  38.7W   11.8N  40.1W   12.0N  41.9W   12.3N  44.1W
LBAR    11.7N  38.7W   12.1N  40.1W   12.9N  42.0W   14.0N  44.3W
SHIP        25KTS          29KTS          33KTS          38KTS
DSHP        25KTS          29KTS          33KTS          38KTS
 
        ...48 HRS...   ...72 HRS...   ...96 HRS. ..   ..120 HRS...
        110921  1800   110922  1800   110923  1800   110924  1800
 
         LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON
BAMS    12.4N  48.4W   11.9N  55.3W   11.2N  61.7W   11.9N  66.6W
BAMD    13.9N  45.9W   14.9N  50.4W   16.2N  54.3W   18.0N  57.5W
BAMM    12.5N  46.5W   12.8N  51.7W   13.7N  56.3W   15.5N  60.2W
LBAR    15.2N  46.9W   18.2N  52.2W   21.1N  56.8W   24.0N  60.0W
SHIP        42KTS          41KTS          40KTS          42KTS
DSHP        42KTS          41KTS          40KTS          42KTS
 
         ...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR =  11.7N LONCUR =  38.7W DIRCUR = 270DEG SPDCUR =   7KT
LATM12 =  11.7N LONM12 =  37.2W DIRM12 = 270DEG SPDM12 =   5KT
LATM24 =  11.9N LONM24 =  36.2W
WNDCUR =   25KT RMAXWD =   60NM WNDM12 =   25KT
CENPRS = 1008MB OUTPRS = 1012MB OUTRAD =  130NM SDEPTH =   S
RD34NE =    0NM RD34SE =    0NM RD34SW =    0NM RD34NW =   0NM
 


[SuperLikeNintendo]

Maria's ugly step sister?

[tolakram]

I'm sort of curious as to what track this will take. I see no reason for significant gain of latitude... maybe a smoothed slightly north of west motion till the Caribbean?

What's your reasoning, the current model plots?? Also, everyone, please don't forget to include the disclaimer when making predictions.

Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

Islanders need to stay on guard for sure, I don't trust intensity forecasts that try and predict shear 4 days from now. Intensity forecasts are historically bad.

[cycloneye]

Saved image by ImageShack.us

[wxman57]

I'm sort of curious as to what track this will take. I see no reason for significant gain of latitude... maybe a smoothed slightly north of west motion till the Caribbean?

I don't see too much mystery as to its most likely track. Models are in very good agreement in taking it to the NE Caribbean late Friday or on Saturday morning then slowly northwestward toward PR/DR. Very deep trof developing along the East U.S. Coast this weekend and early next week should allow for recurvature well east of the U.S. next week. This is probably true whether or not it develops. That's a fairly strong cold front projected to be across the southern and eastern Gulf early next week. Should prevent any movement in that direction.

Conditions in its path don't look too favorable for development, and it doesn't look very impressive on satellite. Might have a shot at developing by Wednesday afternoon, but it may be another struggling TS as it nears the eastern Caribbean.