WPAC: ROKE - Post-Tropical (18W)

[dexterlabio]

Whether this be just a weak TS or a stronger one, you should never let your guards down. Yeah I agree the main problem would be the rain and even the winds that people expect may not be that "spectacular", the thick convective clouds will bring an inclement weather enough to cause trouble.

[dexterlabio]

btw the latest run from euro is one of the weirdest runs i've seen from them. i almost thought the lingering system shown somewhere in Taiwan and Okinawa is the same system as this (maybe the other one behind it). I trust Euro but hell, that run is just hard to absorb.

[euro6208]

yeah euro has this system going down to taiwan while strengthening then back up to okinawa...okinawa 3 landfalls? we'll see

[RobWESTPACWX]

Looks like JTWC went ahead and attached the name to there most recent warning.

Tropical Depression 18W (Roke) Warning #09

[P.K.]

Looks like JTWC went ahead and attached the name to there most recent warning.

Tropical Depression 18W (Roke) Warning #09

Well it was upgraded to a TS at 12Z hence the name.

WTPQ21 RJTD 131800
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 1115 ROKE (1115)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 131800UTC 23.1N 137.4E POOR
MOVE N SLOWLY
PRES 998HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
30KT 200NM NORTHEAST 100NM SOUTHWEST
FORECAST
24HF 141800UTC 25.0N 134.3E 70NM 70%
MOVE WNW 09KT
PRES 994HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
48HF 151800UTC 26.7N 130.7E 110NM 70%
MOVE WNW 09KT
PRES 990HPA
MXWD 045KT
GUST 065KT
72HF 161800UTC 27.2N 129.1E 160NM 70%
MOVE WNW SLOWLY
PRES 985HPA
MXWD 050KT
GUST 070KT =

[RobWESTPACWX]

User error on JMA last night, was refreshing it assuming the new warning would pop up. But you haft to go back then go back in to it. Noted for future reference.

[rdhdstpchld]

This has got to be one of the weirdest storm tracks I've seen in 2yrs...up, over the top of Okinawa and back down the west side??!! Infidoll, you'd better watch out! That's going to be one weird weekend for you guys down there! It's like someone flushed the pacific and it's going to just going to circle the drain (the drain being Okinawa) --

[StormingB81]

LOL! Rob I can see the smoke comming out of your ears from your email and made me think..and the last couple of storms first forecasted over Kadena then they come no where close..now you look JTWC has it comming down teh west side of Okinawa and JMA has it going north..what will it do?

[Infdidoll]

Haha! I was wondering if JTWC was going to get on board with the models...because they seemed to totally defy them as far as where the storm went after it got near Okinawa by about 180 degrees! Yeah, this looks like a real weekend-ruiner. Instead of just one nasty day, looks like we might be in for two if it cuts down the island north to south - that is a VERY weird track. Seen them cut through south to north before, but never north to south and then maybe coming back?!? If it follows that track, we could some crazy high waves on this side of the island. Surfers would be out in droves!

They've slowed the track way down since earlier forecasts which showed the storm getting here on Thursday, now looking more like Sat/Sun. I was betting that intensity would stay low because of this and the shear around here still being bad...but now that it's behind schedule, I wonder how this is going to change the intensity. Love to hear what the pros are thinking.

[StormingB81]

Infdidoll, My head is spinning with how many different tracks this thing has. The shear has died down by the storm by by us it has increased but hwo knows what it will be i nthe comming days...if it does that track yes a weekend ruiner..They were just briefing saying look it is only a tropical storm no worries...and I was like yes but IF notice it is a big if..it does follow that track we will get 60-70 knot winds that will be 1E and we will be locked down..shoulda seen thier faces...lol

[StormingB81]

Latest from JMA:

TS 1115 (ROKE)
Issued at 21:45 UTC, 13 September 2011
<Analyses at 13/21 UTC>
Scale -
Intensity -
Center position N23°20'(23.3°)
E137°30'(137.5°)
Direction and speed of movement N Slowly
Central pressure 998hPa
Maximum sustained wind speed 18m/s(35kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 25m/s(50kt)
Area of 30kt winds or more NE370km(200NM)
SW190km(100NM)

<Forecast for 14/21 UTC>
Intensity -
Center position of probability circle N25°30'(25.5°)
E133°55'(133.9°)
Direction and speed of movement WNW 15km/h(9kt)
Central pressure 994hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 20m/s(40kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 30m/s(60kt)
Radius of probability circle 130km(70NM)

<Forecast for 15/18 UTC>
Intensity -
Center position of probability circle N26°40'(26.7°)
E130°40'(130.7°)
Direction and speed of movement WNW 15km/h(9kt)
Central pressure 990hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 23m/s(45kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 35m/s(65kt)
Radius of probability circle 200km(110NM)

<Forecast for 16/18 UTC>
Intensity -
Center position of probability circle N27°10'(27.2°)
E129°05'(129.1°)
Direction and speed of movement WNW Slowly
Central pressure 985hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 25m/s(50kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 35m/s(70kt)
Radius of probability circle 300km(160NM)

<Forecast for 17/18 UTC>
Center position of probability circle N28°05'(28.1°)
E128°35'(128.6°)
Direction and speed of movement NNW Slowly
Radius of probability circle 440km(240NM)

<Forecast for 18/18 UTC>
Center position of probability circle N28°50'(28.8°)
E128°20'(128.3°)
Direction and speed of movement Almost stationary
Radius of probability circle 560km(300NM)

[StormingB81]

Interesting enough a change in JMA's track bends it SW at the end..not a full south like JTWC but way different from earlier...

[wjs3]

All:

Thanks. I am a Floridian who is in Taiwan right now on business. I can't get to the JTWC or the NRL site from Taiwan and wondered if you guys had a second to post the latest forecast maps from the agency. It sounds interesting, and I'd like to keep an eye on it.

Thanks

Winn

[StormingB81]

This is what is being passed here as the latest:

11 a.m. Wednesday, Sept. 14, Japan time: Tropical Storm Roke will affect Okinawa early next week, but will take a rather roundabout way of getting there. Currently headed northeast, Roke is forecast to make a sharp turn northwest, head that way for a couple of days, then hook southwest right over Okinawa Sunday night into Monday as a severe tropical storm. Kadena Air Base’s 18th Wing Weather Flight forecast calls for damaging winds of 58 mph or greater from 3 a.m. Monday to 9 p.m. Tuesday, with peak winds of 81 mph around 5 p.m. Monday, with between 12 to 15 inches of rain.

[StormingB81]

Wind Shear seems to be dropping..

[Amoygal]

All:

Thanks. I am a Floridian who is in Taiwan right now on business. I can't get to the JTWC or the NRL site from Taiwan and wondered if you guys had a second to post the latest forecast maps from the agency. It sounds interesting, and I'd like to keep an eye on it.

Thanks

Winn

Winn, you should be able to access JTWC in Taiwan--I live here and can get on right now. But here you go:

[wjs3]

Thanks, Amoygal--

I don't know why--I can't get JTWC in the hotel or here in the office!

I'm out of here on Friday, so I think I'll be OK.

Off topic--since you live in Taiwan, any suggestions for fun things to do in Taipei? I have a free day/evening tomorrow. Please feel free to PM me!

[Typhoon Hunter]

Thanks, Amoygal--

I don't know why--I can't get JTWC in the hotel or here in the office!

I'm out of here on Friday, so I think I'll be OK.

Off topic--since you live in Taiwan, any suggestions for fun things to do in Taipei? I have a free day/evening tomorrow. Please feel free to PM me!

Have fun in Taipei! JTWC website weird sometimes. I can't access it straight up here in Hong Kong, have to use a proxy instead.

If you want a good bite (Western) to eat head to Alley Cats in Huashan (google will give you address.) Run by my friend and has good food and drinks. Also go up to the top of Taipei 101 if you can, the views up there on a clear day are sensational!

Will post my thought on Roke once ECMWF 00z comes out in 15 mins!

EDIT: Seen ECMWF 00z and I have no idea where the heck Roke is going to go or how strong it will be. I think it will be a good couple of days more to wait before it ramps up then after that anywhere from Taiwan to Kyushu and in between need to watch it closely!

[wjs3]

Thanks, James. Taipei 101 is definitely on the list. Appreciate the recommendations! Keep them coming. Have not really been out and about here in Taipei (2nd trip) so am looking forward to it.

I can never stay up for the 0z Euro when I'm in the US--this is exciting for a change.

[StormingB81]

ECMWF....I just know hot to reply..I mean it keeps in and around Okinawa for days....if that comes to reality that would just be i dont know..I am sure tons of rain..looks liek maybe even it gets up to Typhoon status...I am interested to see what James has to say!