ATL: IRENE - Models

[Ivanhater]

IVAN it aint going to lift up if its being steered by the lower levels. It just ate Hispa and half of Cuba for dessert.....

Possibly..just talking about what I see on this run though

[caneseddy]

Ha...at 180 hours, an identical track to Irene of 1999

[ROCK]

now it goes back for seconds....

[Ivanhater]

180 hours...still heading NW

[caneseddy]

Another consistent run of the GFS showing a possible US landfall hit....that's 15 straight runs...no matter where it heads, it always ends up coming close to the US

[somethingfunny]

And it's 991mb overland in Cuba on 180hr.

I don't always trust models, but when I do they intensify over land.[/dosequis]

[SFLcane]

This run is garbage any tc will undergo significant weakening if it went over all those mountains.

[Ivanhater]

This run is garbage any tc will undergo significant weakening if it went over all those mountains.

Forget the intensity..look at the pattern and you can still get a good idea where it could go

[SouthFLTropics]

This run seems much slower than the previous runs. Not sure if I buy that given the current movement right now and motion.

SFT

[Ivanhater]

192 hour....about to smack Key West

[somethingfunny]

For a change of pace:

[Ivanhater]

This run seems much slower than the previous runs. Not sure if I buy that given the current movement right now and motion.

SFT

Nope..8/26 has been the possible landfall date

[caneseddy]

This run is garbage any tc will undergo significant weakening if it went over all those mountains.

Forget the intensity..look at the pattern and you can still get a good idea where it could go

Agree...intensity has not been the models strong suit....however the pattern and consistency is still there of an eventual US hit by the GFS..although the fact this run was initialized farther south than where this invest is may have skewed the rate

[Ivanhater]

204...in the Eastern Gulf

[wxman57]

Directly up the western peninsula of FL through 228hrs. Still the same general track indicating a threat to the SE U.S.

[HurricaneBelle]

This run is garbage any tc will undergo significant weakening if it went over all those mountains.

Tell that to Hurricane Georges, which maintained hurricane strength while tracking directly over PR, Hispaniola, and Cuba.

[caneseddy]

Landfall Tampa at 216 hours and intensifying

[Ivanhater]

Into Tampa north to the Big bend

[Hurricaneman]

This run is garbage any tc will undergo significant weakening if it went over all those mountains.

Tell that to Hurricane Georges, which maintained hurricane strength while tracking directly over PR, Hispaniola, and Cuba.

Even though this was still a hurricane, it looked quite disrupted

[caneseddy]

15 straight runs showing a US hit...the consistency has been amazing with this model

Now we all eagerly await the 12z Euro which showed a Bahamas track the previous run