WPAC: MUIFA (Kabayan) - Tropical Depression

[euro6208]

CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
2.5 /1004.0mb/ 35.0kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
2.0 2.4 3.0

[StormingB81]

Euro now showing Okinawa going to get hit with it.

[phwxenthusiast]

now upgraded to TS Muifa by JMA... by the way latest Euro showing an Okinawa hit as well as a northern Taiwan hit, yikes!!

seems to me it's moving more west than though, it's now inside the PAR.. i hope it spares the Philippines...

[oaba09]

According to pagasa, it will enhance the SW monsoon over the weekend(it won't make a landfall in the philippines)....

Should start heading northwards soon based on jma and jtwc tracks...

[KWT]

Back to the very strong westerly turn, and a much stronger system on the 00z. A much more agressive run overall thats for sure.

[Typhoon Hunter]

Back to the very strong westerly turn, and a much stronger system on the 00z. A much more agressive run overall thats for sure.

Yeah! I think it's likely Muifa will make landfall somewhere down the road. Interests from Taiwan to Japan and in between will need to watch this one closely! Indeed JMA 5 day track takes this pretty close to Ryukus.

[KWT]

Yep needs to be watched very closely, the models seem to be all over the place. GFS bends back west but much further north, close call with SW Japan.

[rdhdstpchld]

Euro now showing Okinawa going to get hit with it.

I think this forum needs a "dislike" button...

[dexterlabio]

now upgraded to TS Muifa by JMA... by the way latest Euro showing an Okinawa hit as well as a northern Taiwan hit, yikes!!

seems to me it's moving more west than though, it's now inside the PAR.. i hope it spares the Philippines...

Meari (Falcon) went near Taiwan but it brought significant rainfall across Luzon, and also caused ruckus on the infamous Marikina River when it almost spilled off. Induced monsoonal flow appears to be the problem in the Philippines, at least. By the way, the latest ECM track is similar to the track of TY Fanapi last year. Also a Taiwan-hitting typhoon.

[KWT]

The track of Muifa is pretty unusual if the ECM is right, for it to go nearly straight north, even NNE and then bend back that far west would be a most interesting track!

Looks like its finally strengthening...

[ManilaTC]

Very unrealistic at this time for the storm to head on straight into the ridge.
I dont want to sound alarmist but we might need to take heed as well.

[Infdidoll]

Muifa? Muifa?! Aw come on! If we're going to get hit with a storm, can't we have a big, bad name? That name is destined to be the laughingstock of Okinawa if it hits us. I can hear it now...

Yeah, this is one to watch...projected track has shifted all over the place!

[dexterlabio]

^Yes, forming that large CDO again. I really think the period of quick strengthening is starting.


Also seeing a south of west jog for the past few hours, and bit slowing down... http://www.goes.noaa.gov/sohemi/sohemiloops/vsmtsatw.html Just saying, Songda last May did somewhat of a west to wsw bend, slowed down then began turning more northwards. Nock-ten also did quite the same thing, it went west to wsw then it started to move northwestwards. I don't know if what I'm thinking is right but it seems it signifies that a more northerly movement is next? What do you think?

[phwxenthusiast]

convection is still sheared to the west though... but i agree, very cold cloud tops indeed!

[dexterlabio]

Very unrealistic at this time for the storm to head on straight into the ridge.
I dont want to sound alarmist but we might need to take heed as well.

Have to agree with you. Though we just need to make sure that the STR to the north must weaken or retreat on time so that things would be more proper for us (but not for Okinawa I think, sorry folks for sounding selfish! ) Just kidding.

Seriously, if the westward movement becomes continuous and quick, Taiwan and Philippines must also be ready for the worst.

[dexterlabio]

Nice image of Nock-ten and Muifa together from PAGASA.

[HURAKAN]

Latest infrared

[HURAKAN]

WTPN32 PGTW 280900
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 11W (MUIFA) WARNING NR 012 RELOCATED
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
280600Z --- NEAR 11.9N 135.0E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 265 DEGREES AT 16 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 11.9N 135.0E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
281800Z --- 12.4N 133.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 325 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
290600Z --- 13.1N 133.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 350 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
291800Z --- 14.1N 132.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 360 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
300600Z --- 15.2N 132.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 020 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
310600Z --- 17.7N 133.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 025 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY
NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY.
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
010600Z --- 21.2N 135.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 360 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
020600Z --- 24.2N 135.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
REMARKS:
280900Z POSITION NEAR 12.0N 134.7E.
TROPICAL STORM (TS) 11W (MUIFA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 590 NM WEST
OF ANDERSEN AFB, GUAM, HAS TRACKED JUST SOUTH OF WESTWARD OVER THE
PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THE
SYSTEM HAS EXPANDED AS CONVECTIVE TOPS DEEPENED. INITIAL POSITION
AND INTENSITY ARE BASED ON DVORAK FIXES FROM PGTW AND RJTD. UPPER
LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE STORM IS 10 DEGREES SOUTHEAST OF AN
ANTICYCLONE THAT IS CAUSING SUBSIDENCE ALONG THE NORTHEAST QUADRANT.
HOWEVER, A RIDGE TO THE SOUTH IS PROVIDING EFFICIENT EQUATORWARD
OUTFLOW. THESE DYNAMICS ARE EVIDENT ON ANIMATED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY.
TS 11W, CURRENTLY UNDER MODERATE (15-20 KT) NORTHEASTERLY VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR (VWS), IS TRACKING ALONG THE SOUTHERN BOUNDARY OF A LOW-
TO MID-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGE ANCHORED JUST SOUTHEAST OF KYUSHU,
JAPAN. THIS RIDGE IS BEGINNING TO RECEDE AND WILL CAUSE THE SYSTEM
TO TURN SHARPLY POLEWARD WITHIN THE NEXT 12 HOURS. THIS POLEWARD
MOTION WILL DIMINISH THE SUBSIDENT EFFECT OF THE ANTICYCLONE TO THE
NORTHWEST AND ALSO REDUCE THE VWS, FAVORING GRADUAL INTENSIFICATION
OF THE SYSTEM. AFTER TAU 36, A NEAR EQUATORIAL RIDGE TO THE EAST
WILL ASSUME STEERING AND TUG THE CYCLONE SLIGHTLY RIGHT OF POLEWARD.
AS THE SYSTEM GAINS LATITUDE, THE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS WILL
REMAIN CONDUCIVE FOR FURTHER DEVELOPMENT. TS 11W IS EXPECTED TO
INTENSIFY INTO A MODERATE TYPHOON BY TAU 96 WHEN A BUILDING STR EAST
OF HONSHU JAPAN ASSUMES STEERING AND PUSHES 11W LEFT OF POLEWARD.
THE AVAILABLE NUMERICAL GUIDANCE IS IN LOOSE AGREEMENT AND FANS OUT
TO A 20 DEGREE SPREAD. ALL, HOWEVER, DEPICT AN S-SHAPE TRACK PATTERN
MOLDED BY THE THREE STEERING INFLUENCES DESCRIBED ABOVE. THERE IS
ONE EXCEPTION: WBAR MAINTAINS A PROLONGED WESTWARD TRAJECTORY BEFORE
TURNING POLEWARD AT TAU 96. THIS TRACK FORECAST IS SLIGHTLY LEFT OF
CONSENSUS AT THE BEGINING OF THE FORECAST PERIOD TO ACCOUNT FOR THE
PERSISTENT WESTWARD STORM MOTION. NEXT WARNINGS AT 281500Z, 282100Z,
290300Z AND 290900Z. REFER TO TROPICAL STORM 10W (NOCK-TEN) WARNINGS
(WTPN31 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//
NNNN

[HURAKAN]

ZCZC 551
WTPQ21 RJTD 281200
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 1109 MUIFA (1109)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 281200UTC 12.3N 134.0E FAIR
MOVE W 11KT
PRES 996HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
30KT 200NM
FORECAST
24HF 291200UTC 14.3N 131.9E 70NM 70%
MOVE NW 07KT
PRES 990HPA
MXWD 045KT
GUST 065KT
48HF 301200UTC 16.7N 131.2E 110NM 70%
MOVE NNW 06KT
PRES 980HPA
MXWD 055KT
GUST 080KT
72HF 311200UTC 18.9N 130.7E 160NM 70%
MOVE N 06KT
PRES 970HPA
MXWD 065KT
GUST 095KT =
NNNN

[Extratropical94]

By the way, PAGASA is also tracking it as a TS now, calling it Kabayan.