ATL: INVEST 96L - Discussion

[wxman57]

I think that the dynamic models may be developing it too much and taking it too far east along the panhandle. It might head toward Apalachicola if it gets stronger (maybe TS). But if it remains a disorganized sheared weak low then it will either dissipate completely before it moves ashore and/or move inland closer to Pensacola.

Even as the upper low moves slowly westward, the mean flow at all levels would be from south to north across the disturbance. So I don't think it'll bring any rain to LA or TX. The upper low itself will help to draw moisture into LA & TX by Sunday, increasing our rain chances.

[psyclone]

it's the keech byram (sp) drought index, a good measure of wildfire potential.

[dolebot_Broward_NW]

Thank the drought gods that the rain today has been a solid drizzle. On the rain scale I give it a 2/10. We need this kind of soaking specifically to wet everything everywhere. Its much much better for filling lakes and aquifers and droughtbusting than a huge storm would give. Today's tropical light rains are welcome here. We should get a couple 3 inches by the end of it.

Good to hear your expectation of 2-3 inches in Broward (not sure if that "solid drizzle" would yield 2-3 inches even if it persisted from now until September!) but here in Palm Beach County, the streets have hardly gotten wet from the mist and drizzle. I'd take a huge rain storm, no wind to damage anything; rather than this spitting rain. There is a whole lot of Lake O to replenish not to mention the canals, lakes and sources for water in our extreme drought. This system hasn't done squat I'm afraid.

I'm actually in Boca (at work) and its rained pretty much allllll day. Just now cleared up and the streets are still nice and wet. Sry to hear you haven't got much out of it - but this station shows 0.6" so far today up by WPB:
http://www.findu.com/cgi-bin/wxpage.cgi?call=DW4888

Closer to where I live (pretty far east this station is and I'm out by tamarac) - its been over an inch:
http://www.findu.com/cgi-bin/wxpage.cgi?call=DW0271

Down by 84 this guy recorded nearly 2":
http://www.findu.com/cgi-bin/wxpage.cgi?call=W4AKE

[fci]

it's the keech byram (sp) drought index, a good measure of wildfire potential.

Sorry if this is too off topic; but what are the metrics on the map.
Higher number=More severe drought?
Colors??

[ronjon]

Pressures dropped almost 3 mb over the last 24 hrs at the buoy 42003 near 26N-85.4W. Wind out of the south at 25kts gusting to 28 kts at Pulaski Shoal 30 miles west of Key West.

http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=42003&unit=E&tz=STN

http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=PLSF1

[Nimbus]

There has been a broad mid level turning off the west coast of Florida for a while now. May take a while to get a clear low level center but the surface pressures are dropping. Last couple of visible frames there was some convection returning to the apparent LLC.

[MGC]

So far the UL has done little in the way of increased rain coverage here in Mississippi. I am leaving in the morning for Pensacola for the Blue Angels so you can count on getting some good rains while I am there this weekend. Low is exposed now so I don't expect any rapid development until the UL moves away......MGC

[psyclone]

that's correct. looks like hendry county has been the big rainfall winner overall but the panhandle remains very dry.

[artist]

it's the keech byram (sp) drought index, a good measure of wildfire potential.

Sorry if this is too off topic; but what are the metrics on the map.
Higher number=More severe drought?
Colors??

higher numbers is more severe. Ask thetruesms about it. He is responsible for those maps.

[KWT]

ECM is quite strong, don't think it develops an actual system, though it may do, I can't tell looking at the resolution I've seen, but no doubt there'd be alot of rain with that system.

[yzerfan]

C'mon panhandle path! We so need a good soaking storm right now.

[ronjon]

North half of the FL peninsula just getting hammered with storms now. That's what tropical moisture and a little heating will do.

RADAR

[tailgater]

Well it's hard to pick out a tight llc but over the last 7 hours I have it's movement as stationary or certainly not north, yet, but I do believe if it became a stacked system it would head northward. The UUL isn't moving much at all either. Stalemate right now.

[NDG]

Dry tortugas C-MAN station has been reporting steady winds in the mid 20s knot range for the last couple of hours at least, with highest gust of 35 knots at one time.
A wind gust of 38 mph has recorded here in Orlando this afternoon as a squall like line of storms moved through this area earlier this afternoon.

Pressure at buoy 42003 now reporting a pressure of 1011mb, slowly dropping, 2 mb lower than 24 hrs ago.

[Flakeys]

Already at almost an inch and a half today here in Citrus county. No signs of letting up. Keep it coming!!

[tropicwatch]

C'mon panhandle path! We so need a good soaking storm right now.

Amen to that!

[SootyTern]

We've been hogging the rain the last few days down here in extreme south Florida. The 'feel' of the weather changed mid afternoon today; since Wednesday the afternoon land-based thunderstorms and overnight storms at sea just seemed extra juiced by the atmospheric conditions. Now the general background wind (outside of squalls) has increased and the clouds have that low layered look they get when something tropical is around.

[Sanibel]

It really had that "feel" around here a few days ago.

[tropicwatch]

Looks like the ULL is starting to finally progress westward and there doesn't appear to be as much dry air coming in from the southwest as it was earlier.

Good water vapor loop showing what I am talking about.
http://www.goes.noaa.gov/HURRLOOPS/gulfwv.html

Tropicwatch

[JonathanBelles]

I'm really looking at this system as a rain-maker for Florida and Georgia rather than a tropical entity. Some good thunderstorms should be able to develop where there is any heating, but there doesn't seem to be enough time or the right conditions for tropical development. I'm not ruling anything though though.