000
WTPZ41 KNHC 082038
TCDEP1
TROPICAL STORM ADRIAN DISCUSSION NUMBER 6
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP012011
200 PM PDT WED JUN 08 2011
VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGES AND RECENT MICROWAVE DATA INDICATE THAT
ADRIAN HAS DEVELOPED AN EYE-LIKE FEATURE. HOWEVER...THIS FEATURE
IS NOT YET COMPLETELY SURROUNDED BY CONVECTIVE BANDING...AS SEEN IN
INFRARED IMAGES. SATELLITE CLASSIFICATIONS HAVE NOT CHANGED MUCH
FROM EARLIER...AND THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS HELD AT 60 KT FOR THIS
ADVISORY.
AFTER JOGGING NORTHWARD EARLIER...ADRIAN APPEARS TO HAVE RESUMED A
MORE NORTHWESTWARD HEADING AT A SLIGHTLY FASTER SPEED...330/7. A
GRADUAL TURN TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED AS MID-LEVEL
RIDGING STRENGTHENS TO THE NORTH OF THE CYCLONE. THE TRACK MODELS
REMAIN QUITE DIVERGENT...ESPECIALLY BEYOND 3 DAYS...WITH THE GFS
AND GFDL MODELS SHOWING ADRIAN TURNING MORE TOWARD THE NORTH DUE TO
A STRONGER SHORTWAVE TROUGH OFF THE BAJA PENINSULA. CONVERSELY...
THE UKMET AND ECMWF MODELS SHOW A WEAKER SHORTWAVE AND TAKE THE
CYCLONE MORE WESTWARD. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS NUDGED A LITTLE TO
THE LEFT...OR SOUTH...OF THE PREVIOUS ONE AND IS A COMPROMISE
BETWEEN THE AFOREMENTIONED SCENARIOS.
ALTHOUGH THE INTENSIFICATION PROCESS HAS SLOWED TODAY...ADDITIONAL
STRENGTHENING IS EXPECTED AS ADRIAN REMAINS IN A FAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENT. STEADY...OR EVEN RAPID INTENSIFICATION...IS LIKELY
OVER THE NEXT 36 TO 48 HOURS AS ADRIAN REMAINS OVER WATERS OF 29-30
C AND IN A LOW WIND SHEAR ENVIRONMENT. BEYOND THAT TIME...THE
OFFICIAL FORECAST TAKES ADRIAN OVER PROGRESSIVELY COOLER WATERS.
THE COOLER SSTS ALONG WITH A MORE STABLE ATMOSPHERE ARE EXPECTED TO
PROMOTE WEAKENING. THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS ESSENTIALLY AN UPDATE
OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 08/2100Z 13.5N 101.6W 60 KT 70 MPH
12H 09/0600Z 14.1N 102.3W 75 KT 85 MPH
24H 09/1800Z 14.8N 103.3W 85 KT 100 MPH
36H 10/0600Z 15.4N 104.4W 95 KT 110 MPH
48H 10/1800Z 15.9N 105.6W 95 KT 110 MPH
72H 11/1800Z 16.7N 107.5W 90 KT 105 MPH
96H 12/1800Z 17.5N 109.5W 70 KT 80 MPH
120H 13/1800Z 18.5N 111.5W 50 KT 60 MPH
$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI/BRENNAN
000
WTPZ21 KNHC 082037
TCMEP1
TROPICAL STORM ADRIAN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 6
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP012011
2100 UTC WED JUN 08 2011
CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...
NONE.
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE COAST OF MEXICO FROM ACAPULCO WESTWARD TO PUNTA SAN TELMO
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN 24 TO 48 HOURS.
TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.5N 101.6W AT 08/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 315 DEGREES AT 8 KT
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 994 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 60 KT WITH GUSTS TO 75 KT.
50 KT....... 35NE 25SE 25SW 35NW.
34 KT....... 75NE 45SE 45SW 75NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 85NE 120SE 55SW 80NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.5N 101.6W AT 08/2100Z
AT 08/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 13.2N 101.3W
FORECAST VALID 09/0600Z 14.1N 102.3W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 25SE 15SW 25NW.
50 KT... 50NE 40SE 35SW 50NW.
34 KT...100NE 75SE 65SW 90NW.
FORECAST VALID 09/1800Z 14.8N 103.3W
MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
64 KT... 35NE 30SE 25SW 30NW.
50 KT... 60NE 50SE 40SW 50NW.
34 KT...110NE 90SE 70SW 100NW.
FORECAST VALID 10/0600Z 15.4N 104.4W
MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.
64 KT... 40NE 35SE 30SW 35NW.
50 KT... 60NE 50SE 45SW 55NW.
34 KT...120NE 90SE 80SW 110NW.
FORECAST VALID 10/1800Z 15.9N 105.6W
MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.
50 KT... 60NE 50SE 45SW 55NW.
34 KT...120NE 90SE 80SW 110NW.
FORECAST VALID 11/1800Z 16.7N 107.5W
MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.
50 KT... 60NE 50SE 45SW 55NW.
34 KT...120NE 90SE 80SW 110NW.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY
OUTLOOK VALID 12/1800Z 17.5N 109.5W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
OUTLOOK VALID 13/1800Z 18.5N 111.5W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 13.5N 101.6W
NEXT ADVISORY AT 09/0300Z
$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI/BRENNAN
000
WTPZ31 KNHC 082037
TCPEP1
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM ADRIAN ADVISORY NUMBER 6
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP012011
200 PM PDT WED JUN 08 2011
...ADRIAN JUST BELOW HURRICANE STRENGTH...
SUMMARY OF 200 PM PDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...13.5N 101.6W
ABOUT 260 MI...420 KM SSW OF ACAPULCO MEXICO
ABOUT 290 MI...465 KM S OF ZIHUATANEJO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 315 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...994 MB...29.35 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...
NONE.
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE COAST OF MEXICO FROM ACAPULCO WESTWARD TO PUNTA SAN TELMO
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN 24 TO 48 HOURS.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.
DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 200 PM PDT...2100 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ADRIAN WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 13.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 101.6 WEST. ADRIAN IS
MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 9 MPH...15 KM/H. A GRADUAL TURN TO
THE WEST-NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. ON
THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF ADRIAN IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN
OFFSHORE OF THE COAST OF MEXICO. HOWEVER...ANY DEVIATION TO THE
RIGHT OF THE FORECAST TRACK COULD BRING TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS
TO THE COAST WITHIN THE WATCH AREA TOMORROW AND FRIDAY.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 70 MPH...110 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS LIKELY DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS...AND ADRIAN IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A HURRICANE BY TONIGHT.
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 85 MILES...140 KM
FROM THE CENTER.
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 994 MB...29.35 INCHES.
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH
AREA BY TOMORROW MORNING.
SURF...SWELLS GENERATED BY ADRIAN WILL BEGIN AFFECTING A PORTION OF
THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF MEXICO LATER TODAY. THESE SWELLS COULD
CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND RIP CURRENT CONDITIONS.
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...500 PM PDT.
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...800 PM PDT.
$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI/BRENNAN
000
FOPZ11 KNHC 082037
PWSEP1
TROPICAL STORM ADRIAN WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 6
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP012011
2100 UTC WED JUN 08 2011
AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ADRIAN WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 13.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 101.6 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS NEAR 60 KTS...70 MPH...110 KM/H.
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)
PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME
HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME
I. MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITY TABLE
CHANCES THAT THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEED OF
THE TROPICAL CYCLONE WILL BE WITHIN ANY OF THE FOLLOWING CATEGORIES
AT EACH OFFICIAL FORECAST TIME DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS.
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT. X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS
THAN 1 PERCENT.
- - - MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITIES - - -
Code: Select all
VALID TIME 06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 18Z SAT 18Z SUN 18Z MON
FORECAST HOUR 12 24 36 48 72 96 120
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
DISSIPATED X X X X 1 3 16
TROP DEPRESSION X X X 1 2 11 35
TROPICAL STORM 8 8 6 9 21 55 44
HURRICANE 92 92 94 90 77 31 5
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
HUR CAT 1 79 48 30 34 40 24 5
HUR CAT 2 11 33 35 28 22 5 1
HUR CAT 3 2 10 24 22 12 2 X
HUR CAT 4 X 2 5 6 3 X X
HUR CAT 5 X X 1 1 X X X
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
FCST MAX WIND 75KT 85KT 95KT 95KT 90KT 70KT 50KT
II. WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS
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