ATL: NATE - Remnants - Discussion

[somethingfunny]

BEST TRACK: AL15, 197N 923W, 60kts, 997mb, TS NATE

[Wx_Warrior]

Naa. No wars here. It's really not even close.

Just because 1 run shows something different, doesn't mean that scenario is going to AUTOMATICALLY play out, especially with the gfs, which was the "model of the day" on Wednesday. Patience is key is this world.

It's great to express your opinion, but not a good idea to doubt the pros.

[Dave]

000
URNT12 KNHC 081841
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE AL152011
A. 08/18:05:50Z
B. 19 deg 43 min N
092 deg 14 min W
C. NA
D. 40 kt
E. 315 deg 40 nm
F. 049 deg 41 kt
G. 315 deg 41 nm
H. EXTRAP 997 mb
I. 21 C / 458 m
J. 24 C / 519 m
K. 24 C / NA
L. NA
M. NA
N. 1345 / 01
O. 0.02 / 5 nm
P. AF300 0215A NATE OB 05
MAX OUTBOUND FL WIND 81 KT SE QUAD 18:15:50Z
SLP EXTRAP FROM BELOW 1500 FT
;

[Dave]

DECODED VDM OB 5

Product: Air Force Vortex Message (URNT12 KNHC)
Transmitted: 8th day of the month at 18:41Z
Aircraft: Air Force Aircraft (Last 3 digits of the tail number are 300)
Storm Number & Year: 15L in 2011
Storm Name: Nate (flight in the North Atlantic basin)
Mission Number: 2
Observation Number: 05
A. Time of Center Fix: 8th day of the month at 18:05:50Z
B. Center Fix Coordinates: 19°43'N 92°14'W (19.7167N 92.2333W)
B. Center Fix Location: 112 miles (180 km) to the W (265°) from Campeche, Campeche, México.
C. Minimum Height at Standard Level: Not Available
D. Estimated (by SFMR or visually) Maximum Surface Wind: 40kts (~ 46.0mph)
E. Location of the Estimated Maximum Surface Wind: 40 nautical miles (46 statute miles) to the NW (315°) of center fix
F. Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: From 49° at 41kts (From the NE at ~ 47.2mph)
G. Location of Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: 41 nautical miles (47 statute miles) to the NW (315°) of center fix
H. Minimum Sea Level Pressure: 997mb (29.44 inHg) - Extrapolated
I. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Outside Eye: 21°C (70°F) at a pressure alt. of 458m (1,503ft)
J. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Inside Eye: 24°C (75°F) at a pressure alt. of 519m (1,703ft)
K. Dewpoint Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): 24°C (75°F)
K. Sea Surface Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): Not Available
L. Eye Character: Not Available
M. Eye Shape: Not Available
N. Fix Determined By: Penetration, Wind, Pressure and Temperature
N. Fix Levels (sfc and flt lvl centers are within 5nm of each other): Surface and 1,500 feet
O. Navigation Fix Accuracy: 0.02 nautical miles
O. Meteorological Accuracy: 5 nautical miles
Remarks Section:
Maximum Flight Level Wind Outbound: 81kts (~ 93.2mph) in the southeast quadrant at 18:15:50Z
Sea Level Pressure Extrapolation From: Below 1,500 feet

[Dave]

Waiting for GE to get caught up...got tripped up with hdobs 21 coming in before 20..

[tobol.7uno]

18z Models want to go west again...

[Dave]

000
URNT11 KNHC 081841
97779 18304 51190 91309 15200 22057 15153 /2490
RMK AF300 0215A NATE OB 06
SWS = 42 KTS

[Dave]

000
URNT15 KNHC 081835
AF300 0215A NATE HDOB 22 20110908
182530 1905N 09133W 8429 01544 0072 +157 +156 231058 059 048 002 00
182600 1904N 09132W 8432 01543 0072 +160 +156 230059 059 047 004 00
182630 1903N 09131W 8428 01548 0074 +160 +155 231059 059 047 002 00
182700 1901N 09129W 8428 01552 0079 +158 +156 229057 057 048 001 00
182730 1900N 09128W 8433 01546 0083 +156 //// 227057 057 047 001 01
182800 1859N 09127W 8429 01552 0087 +154 //// 227057 058 045 000 05
182830 1858N 09126W 8428 01557 0090 +153 //// 227058 058 043 000 05
182900 1857N 09125W 8430 01557 0093 +154 //// 227056 056 042 000 05
182930 1856N 09123W 8421 01569 0099 +150 //// 224056 056 /// /// 05
183000 1858N 09121W 8433 01557 0098 +150 //// 223057 057 042 000 05
183030 1859N 09120W 8431 01558 //// +146 //// 222058 058 044 000 05
183100 1900N 09118W 8431 01559 //// +149 //// 221058 059 043 001 05
183130 1901N 09116W 8429 01561 //// +150 //// 220057 057 045 000 01
183200 1902N 09114W 8433 01561 //// +150 //// 218057 058 043 000 05
183230 1904N 09112W 8430 01562 //// +148 //// 219058 059 040 000 05
183300 1905N 09110W 8432 01562 //// +146 //// 218058 058 041 001 01
183330 1906N 09109W 8434 01558 //// +146 //// 218058 059 041 000 05
183400 1907N 09107W 8426 01568 //// +145 //// 217059 059 042 000 01
183430 1908N 09105W 8429 01564 //// +142 //// 215058 058 040 000 05
183500 1909N 09103W 8429 01569 //// +145 //// 211055 056 039 000 35
$$
;

[underthwx]

http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/atcf_web/ima ... 090812.gif


latest Navy......


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[Sabanic]

I'll just wait until it is actually moving in a general direction because as for now I don't believe even the models are 100% sure.

[Dave]

[tobol.7uno]

18z runs absolutely have mad a westward shift...

[Dave]

Waiting for hdobs 23...also watching archives for it...22 came from in there.

*Note: Maria hdobs have stopped also...hdobs 9 was last for it.

[bamajammer4eva]

GFS is the Outlier! Sounds like Lee all over again

[Dave]

Here's 25...missing 23 & 24 so far...

000
URNT15 KNHC 081905
AF300 0215A NATE HDOB 25 20110908
185530 2027N 09034W 8408 01593 0101 +165 //// 170039 040 023 000 01
185600 2029N 09033W 8411 01591 0100 +165 //// 169038 038 022 000 01
185630 2031N 09033W 8410 01593 0102 +165 //// 167037 037 021 001 01
185700 2033N 09033W 8410 01592 0101 +162 //// 167038 038 021 000 01
185730 2034N 09033W 8410 01592 0102 +160 //// 169038 039 020 000 01
185800 2036N 09032W 8412 01589 0104 +160 //// 169037 037 019 000 01
185830 2038N 09032W 8410 01593 0106 +160 //// 166038 038 021 000 01
185900 2040N 09032W 8418 01584 0106 +157 //// 167038 038 018 001 01
185930 2042N 09032W 8405 01598 0108 +153 //// 166036 037 020 000 01
190000 2044N 09031W 8410 01593 0111 +152 //// 162031 034 019 001 01
190030 2046N 09031W 8407 01597 0107 +158 //// 165031 032 020 000 01
190100 2048N 09030W 8416 01587 0107 +159 //// 158028 029 020 000 01
190130 2049N 09029W 8405 01598 0110 +152 //// 160024 024 020 001 01
190200 2051N 09029W 8409 01593 0108 +153 //// 163024 026 017 000 01
190230 2053N 09028W 8409 01591 0106 +155 //// 163025 026 010 000 01
190300 2054N 09027W 8411 01592 0105 +157 //// 165026 027 008 000 01
190330 2056N 09027W 8408 01594 0105 +158 //// 167028 028 007 000 01
190400 2058N 09026W 8411 01590 0103 +157 //// 168027 028 003 001 01
190430 2100N 09025W 8405 01594 0105 +155 //// 168028 028 002 001 05
190500 2101N 09026W 8401 01598 0096 +164 //// 170028 029 /// /// 05
$$
;

[tobol.7uno]

GFS is the Outlier! Sounds like Lee all over again

Was GFS right about Lee? I don't remember.

[bamajammer4eva]

GFS is the Outlier! Sounds like Lee all over again

Was GFS right about Lee? I don't remember.

GFS was the only one that kept showing Lee going to the Northern Gulf. Euro kept saying Mexico. NWS forecasters kept calling the GFS the outlier and going with the Euro until it finally agreed with the GFS

[Dave]

[tobol.7uno]

Look at microwave imagery over the last 24 hr, it does not support 70 mph status.

[drezee]

I haven't seen obs from the G IV