ATL: NATE - Remnants - Discussion

[South Texas Storms]

Nate is showing NO signs of being picked up as per the Canadian, so I'll stick with Mexico. Possibly even south of Tampico.

If it takes that track then wouldn't that help with our wildfires here?

[SoupBone]

Are you referring to the entire GOM?
If so, I hate to disappoint but it's (dry air) not going anywhere
anytime soon.

Dry air in and around Nate in the GOM is getting squeezed out. If I had to bet, I would bet the dry air will oly be around another 24hrs. or so.

Do you have something to back this up? The Texas dry air looks persistent right now.

I agree which is why I was asking for something that showed what he's suggesting. He posted that it's being squeezed out, but all I see is a large area of dry air over the entire GoM (fron the front) and the obvious one over Texas.

[wxman57]

Nate is showing NO signs of being picked up as per the Canadian, so I'll stick with Mexico. Possibly even south of Tampico.

If it takes that track then wouldn't that help with our wildfires here?

Not in the slightest. Moisture would stay down in Mexico.

[gatorcane]

I will definitely lean with the Euro also --- and say Mexico because it shows no signs of going north plus I put more money in the Euro for medium-range forecasts

I feel bad for you in Texas as you just can't buy rainfall! Now the Mexican ridge comes in and blocks a system, previously it was the death ridge over Texas.

[Hurricaneman]

Nate is showing NO signs of being picked up as per the Canadian, so I'll stick with Mexico. Possibly even south of Tampico.

If it takes that track then wouldn't that help with our wildfires here?

Nope, it would actually be worse because the winds would spread the fires, especially with no rain

[drezee]

Nate is showing NO signs of being picked up as per the Canadian, so I'll stick with Mexico. Possibly even south of Tampico.

The Euro is showing a deep trough in the midwest less than 3 days after landfall...if Nate can avoid landfall in MX...it could be pulled N

[Dave]

Checked archives and hdob 20 isn't in yet...

871
URNT15 KNHC 081825
AF300 0215A NATE HDOB 21 20110908
181530 1923N 09150W 9505 00446 //// +185 //// 209078 080 058 006 05
181600 1923N 09148W 9528 00427 //// +180 //// 206080 081 052 005 05
181630 1923N 09147W 9522 00435 //// +175 //// 202077 079 060 010 05
181700 1922N 09147W 9526 00433 //// +172 //// 202075 076 059 012 01
181730 1921N 09147W 9526 00434 //// +171 //// 204074 076 057 015 01
181800 1920N 09147W 9527 00435 //// +171 //// 207075 077 059 016 01
181830 1919N 09148W 9524 00444 //// +169 //// 206075 075 059 018 01
181900 1918N 09148W 9524 00446 //// +170 //// 210075 076 060 018 01
181930 1917N 09148W 9498 00472 0034 +172 //// 213073 074 058 019 05
182000 1916N 09147W 9345 00620 //// +170 //// 218074 075 055 016 05
182030 1916N 09145W 9208 00759 0051 +175 //// 220075 076 054 008 01
182100 1915N 09143W 9076 00888 0052 +186 //// 221073 074 053 004 01
182130 1914N 09142W 8910 01050 0051 +184 //// 223068 070 051 005 01
182200 1913N 09141W 8723 01232 0050 +180 //// 220064 065 054 005 01
182230 1912N 09140W 8548 01412 //// +157 //// 219066 068 051 006 01
182300 1911N 09139W 8442 01523 //// +154 //// 220061 065 050 007 01
182330 1910N 09138W 8433 01532 0065 +158 //// 223055 056 048 006 01
182400 1908N 09136W 8425 01541 0065 +159 //// 227055 057 048 005 01
182430 1907N 09135W 8433 01536 0067 +157 //// 228057 057 048 002 01
182500 1906N 09134W 8427 01542 0069 +157 +157 230058 058 047 002 00
$$
;

[dwsqos2]

81 knots at 400 meters, bwah.

[drezee]

Per the recon, nate is darn near a hurricane!!!!!!!!!!!

[drezee]

81 knots at 400 meters, bwah.

Yes, recon pulled up fast!!!! That had to be really hairy!!

[Dave]

hdobs #20 wasn't sent.

[JtSmarts]

These BOC storms always have the potential to spin up rapidly especially in the last 3 years.

[tobol.7uno]

18Z model runs soon. Like to see how they compare to this...

[craptacular]

Unflagged 69 mph from SFMR.

[wxman57]

Must be some sort of funneling effect going on east of the center along the coast of Mexico. Nate doesn't even have a core right now.

[Dave]

Missing hdobs #20

294
URNT15 KNHC 081832
AF300 0215A NATE HDOB 20 20110908
180530 1943N 09215W 9525 00404 9973 +230 //// 332003 003 011 000 01
180600 1942N 09213W 9526 00403 9973 +231 //// 251003 004 011 000 01
180630 1942N 09212W 9523 00405 9972 +233 //// 233006 008 012 001 01
180700 1942N 09210W 9524 00402 9971 +234 //// 226012 015 014 000 05
180730 1941N 09209W 9518 00408 9969 +240 //// 228015 015 017 000 05
180800 1940N 09208W 9524 00404 9969 +247 //// 221017 017 015 000 01
180830 1938N 09207W 9524 00404 9970 +248 //// 219019 021 015 000 01
180900 1937N 09205W 9524 00405 9971 +244 //// 215022 022 012 001 01
180930 1936N 09204W 9524 00406 9974 +234 //// 214022 022 014 000 01
181000 1935N 09203W 9525 00407 //// +231 //// 217022 022 014 000 01
181030 1934N 09202W 9522 00411 //// +232 //// 216022 022 011 001 01
181100 1933N 09201W 9524 00409 9979 +233 //// 213022 023 012 000 01
181130 1932N 09200W 9526 00409 //// +230 //// 218022 023 014 000 01
181200 1931N 09159W 9524 00412 //// +229 //// 224022 023 013 002 01
181230 1930N 09157W 9524 00413 //// +225 //// 229023 023 013 002 01
181300 1928N 09156W 9525 00413 //// +225 //// 232023 024 018 001 01
181330 1927N 09155W 9520 00420 //// +220 //// 235023 023 029 006 01
181400 1926N 09154W 9517 00423 //// +216 //// 232026 028 031 005 01
181430 1925N 09153W 9522 00419 //// +211 //// 230040 045 042 009 01
181500 1924N 09152W 9537 00414 //// +199 //// 209065 073 057 005 05
$$
;

[Hurricaneman]

seeing the measured Flight level wind at 81kts and the SMFR at 60kts I would maybe go Hurricane Nate at 5

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[GCANE]

Must be right on the edge of if that cutoff low over the OH valley can scoop him or not.

Depends on relative strengths, positions, and timing.

[somethingfunny]

Not a hurricane. Those readings have got to be contaminated. I mean, look down there.

[Stormcenter]

Very true and they seem to always be small compact intense storms. IMO

These BOC storms always have the potential to spin up rapidly especially in the last 3 years.