ATL: LEE - Remnants - Discussion

[duris]

Might be an interesting few days in NOLA. Went out to get gas thinking I would beat rain and was in first band to come through instead. Lower Garden District areas prone to flooding backed up fast. Fortunately, didn't last but about 15 minutes and it's draining now, but prime example of our pumping system not able to keep up with heavy downpours.

[Nikki]

Thanks T-man....

I'm just not seeing it really.

I know and I am sorry, I was and still am rooting and praying for us!

[Dave]

000
URNT15 KWBC 011700
NOAA2 01HHA INVEST HDOB 05 20110901
165030 2746N 08457W 6483 03849 0172 +051 +042 147018 018 027 000 00
165100 2746N 08500W 6482 03851 0163 +057 +036 151018 018 028 000 00
165130 2746N 08502W 6482 03849 0164 +056 +036 149017 017 027 000 00
165200 2745N 08505W 6482 03848 0162 +056 +039 148015 016 025 000 00
165230 2745N 08508W 6482 03846 0159 +057 +040 150014 015 025 000 00
165300 2745N 08510W 6482 03846 0157 +058 +037 149014 014 025 000 00
165330 2745N 08513W 6483 03845 0159 +057 +031 150015 015 024 000 00
165400 2745N 08515W 6483 03845 0161 +055 +031 145015 015 024 000 00
165430 2745N 08518W 6483 03845 0159 +058 +024 143015 015 023 000 00
165500 2745N 08520W 6482 03847 0162 +056 +028 144016 016 024 000 00
165530 2745N 08523W 6483 03847 0160 +057 +033 149015 015 025 000 00
165600 2745N 08525W 6483 03845 0161 +055 +035 143014 015 025 000 00
165630 2745N 08528W 6483 03843 0162 +054 +034 140014 014 024 000 00
165700 2745N 08530W 6483 03843 0162 +053 +034 141012 012 024 000 00
165730 2745N 08533W 6484 03841 0159 +055 +035 138012 012 025 000 00
165800 2744N 08536W 6484 03840 0155 +057 +033 137012 012 026 000 00
165830 2744N 08538W 6484 03839 0153 +057 +035 138012 012 026 000 00
165900 2744N 08541W 6484 03837 0151 +057 +036 138012 012 027 000 00
165930 2744N 08543W 6483 03837 0150 +058 +035 147012 013 029 000 00
170000 2744N 08546W 6484 03837 0151 +058 +035 145013 014 030 000 00

[Dave]

Anybody wants to pick up graphics or hdobs let me know here...either one is fine with me.

[Dave]

[gboudx]

We are hoping it doesn't sit and spin out there all week long down here in Lafitte, we will certainly have some flooding if that occurs. All that rain, and the high tides will be a problem for some folks down here on the bayou.

Would depend on the wind direction. Northerly and/or easterly, the bayou shouldn't rise too much. But get a southerly component and it may be game on. I hope Timmy is ready with some better boom than he used for Ike.

Well, as you know, if it slides SW we will be gettin' stacked up in Barataria Bay, and the waterway...hoping for the best.

Yeah I hear ya on the concern. I know Road Home has raised a lot of homes down there in the past 1-2 years so hopefully less will be affected by any flooding. My father-in-law just had his done so he'll be fine, and my parents in Barataria are 12' off the ground. This is something I've been thinking of with this system. Us folks in Texas really need the rain, but it would come at the expense of flooding in La as it sits and piles up water from the south. The ECMWF(yes I know this isn't the model thread) is showing such a scenario too.

[Clint_TX]

Certainly the potential for major flooding across south LA as it develops and meanders around near the LA coast over the weekend, regardless of whether it eventually tracks southwest or northeast. GFS may tend to be a bit strong with the trof to the north, that's why it's been leaning NE vs. the other models.

But we need the rain here! A small child was swallowed up by the earth in one of hundreds of giant cracks at the Lake Jackson Soccer Fields last night!

Use all you powers to nudge the rain line west please

[HouTXmetro]

http://www.weatheroffice.gc.ca/model_fo ... 12_....jpg

Correct me if I'm wrong... but the newest CMC run brings this inland near TX/LA border stalls it inland then rides SW inland along much of the TX coast... for drought purposes this would be ideal. But somebody in LA or TX will be dealing with major flooding.

[Ivanhater]

12z Canadian switches...heads NE like the GFS

[CYCLONE MIKE]

Does anyone think we could have a center develop down near the deeper convection around 25n 87w ?

[Dave]

URNT15 KWBC 011710
NOAA2 01HHA INVEST HDOB 06 20110901
170030 2744N 08548W 6484 03839 0154 +056 +035 143012 013 029 000 00
170100 2744N 08551W 6485 03837 0149 +060 +034 145014 014 028 000 00
170130 2744N 08553W 6485 03837 0149 +059 +034 152014 014 028 000 00
170200 2744N 08556W 6486 03835 0146 +061 +032 149015 015 029 000 00
170230 2744N 08559W 6484 03835 0146 +059 +031 152013 013 028 000 00
170300 2743N 08601W 6484 03835 0145 +059 +032 158012 012 029 000 00
170330 2743N 08604W 6486 03832 0144 +061 +032 157011 011 030 000 00
170400 2743N 08606W 6485 03834 0143 +061 +033 155011 011 030 000 00
170430 2743N 08609W 6484 03834 0141 +062 +031 150011 011 031 000 00
170500 2743N 08611W 6487 03830 0137 +065 +030 143011 011 031 000 00
170530 2743N 08614W 6486 03832 0135 +066 +028 139012 012 032 000 00
170600 2743N 08616W 6486 03831 9137 +072 +026 139034 075 032 000 00
170630 2743N 08619W 6487 03830 0130 +069 +025 139013 014 033 000 00
170700 2743N 08621W 6488 03828 0125 +072 +024 142013 013 032 000 00
170730 2743N 08624W 6485 03829 0121 +074 +022 146013 014 032 000 00
170800 2743N 08626W 6486 03829 0122 +073 +020 149015 015 034 000 00
170830 2743N 08629W 6487 03828 0122 +072 +020 151014 015 036 000 00
170900 2743N 08631W 6487 03825 0120 +073 +020 152014 014 038 002 00
170930 2743N 08634W 6487 03825 0123 +071 +021 146015 015 039 000 00
171000 2743N 08637W 6488 03826 0125 +071 +021 149014 015 044 004 00

[BigB0882]

The CMC is very odd, looks like it goes inland at the LA/TX border then up NE well into LA before being pushed SW down the TX coast. Haven't seen a model do the NE then SW thing yet, not to this degree. It is the CMC though, I usually take it less seriously. Maybe that is a different low that pops up? This thing is going too fast for me to tell, need to turn the speed down, lol

Yes, upon a 2nd viewing at a slower speed I think that is a different L that comes into south TX.

[duris]

NOLA met's take, http://www.wwltv.com/community/blogs/we ... 89228.html, most of which anyone following the board probably already knows, but decent discussion of alternatives.

[duris]

Joe B's most recent tweet: whats 2,000 miles among friends. I like a 3-5 day loop de loop like juan in 1985, then a move northeast pic.twitter.com/Y5YFW9n

[Dave]

[clfenwi]

http://www.weatheroffice.gc.ca/model_forecast/animateweb_e.html?imagetype=model_forecast&imagename=12_054_G1_north@america@zoomout_I_4PAN_CLASSIC@012_....jpg

Correct me if I'm wrong... but the newest CMC run brings this inland near TX/LA border stalls it inland then rides SW inland along much of the TX coast... for drought purposes this would be ideal. But somebody in LA or TX will be dealing with major flooding.

That animation hasn't fully updated its graphics yet; (at this very moment) last couple of images are from the previous 12z run, that why a low appears in TX suddenly.

Animation on Dr Hart's site has updated.

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/cmctc2.cgi?time=2011090112&field=Sea+Level+Pressure&hour=Animation

[BigB0882]

I guess JB likes the Euro.

[WeatherGuesser]

Once 93 does develop into TS Lee it will be all over the news.

You mean Maria

[BigB0882]

Why Maria? Is 94L going to beat it to the punch?

[SouthDadeFish]

SFMR measured 44 knots. Rain rate seemed to be low. Straight to TS if classified?