ATL: EMILY - Remnants

[weatherSnoop]

I can do some images for a while.

thanks SFW

[summersquall]

"rain contaminated" & "knots" - Thank you!

I'm trying to figure out if I need to do a Home Depot run for plywood and a few extra hurricane straps tomorrow.

[SouthFloridawx]

I can do some images for a while.

thanks SFW

No prob. You guys like the funktop? Hope so, shows those cloud tops nicely. I'll zoom in a little farther for the next one.

[weatherSnoop]

Use this Google Earth file for the floater:
http://tropicalatlantic.com/temp/2011/0 ... loater.kmz
It will only work until the floater is repositioned and then the file will be useless. Unfortunately you can't have an automatic Google Earth file for floaters because you don't know the coordinates to position the image at by automatic means.

Chris, thank you...last year, google had images you could select and I could not find them

[Texashawk]

Oddly, I've heard nothing about Jamaica being a possible target of Emily, but if it continues it's general 275-285 heading, it will go right down the spine of the island by tomorrow evening. You'd think there'd be a little more mention about this possibility from NHC...

[Chris_in_Tampa]

Chris, thank you...last year, google had images you could select and I could not find them

I have some here but they are not as good as floater imagery, since floaters have more detailed imagery:
http://www.tropicalatlantic.com/overlay ... _Earth.kmz
But, you don't have to reposition it each time like the floater.

[brunota2003]

"rain contaminated" & "knots" - Thank you!

I'm trying to figure out if I need to do a Home Depot run for plywood and a few extra hurricane straps tomorrow.

Well...I'll say do the run regardless. If Emily poofs, you got the plywood for other things around the house and/or future threats. Cut out what you need now and store it, then if one threatens later, all you got to do is hang them! Same thing for the straps, you'll have them and won't have to fight with others when it comes to crunch time!

[weatherSnoop]

URNT15 KNHC 040551
AF309 1005A EMILY HDOB 13 20110804
054200 1658N 07114W 8396 01577 //// +119 //// 031013 017 /// /// 05
054230 1658N 07115W 8387 01602 0091 +159 +144 278005 015 /// /// 03
054300 1657N 07117W 8442 01539 0076 +178 +145 241018 020 043 016 03
054330 1655N 07118W 8442 01544 0080 +172 +148 243015 015 032 008 00
054400 1654N 07119W 8428 01559 0077 +180 +152 233013 013 021 003 00
054430 1653N 07120W 8428 01555 0070 +181 +156 218013 013 017 004 00
054500 1652N 07122W 8430 01551 0067 +180 +161 219016 017 022 004 00
054530 1651N 07123W 8427 01551 0064 +179 +165 219018 019 025 005 03
054600 1650N 07124W 8429 01546 0063 +177 +169 230020 020 026 005 00
054630 1648N 07124W 8426 01547 0059 +182 +171 235020 021 028 006 00
054700 1647N 07125W 8428 01547 0069 +169 //// 237020 022 028 003 05
054730 1646N 07126W 8426 01547 0062 +177 +173 240021 022 030 003 00
054800 1645N 07127W 8431 01545 0070 +167 //// 243020 021 026 006 01
054830 1644N 07129W 8428 01547 0061 +182 +172 248020 020 024 001 00
054900 1644N 07130W 8430 01547 0061 +181 +172 265018 019 025 002 00
054930 1642N 07131W 8426 01552 0062 +182 +173 272017 019 024 000 00
055000 1641N 07132W 8430 01547 0062 +180 +176 270020 020 022 001 00
055030 1640N 07133W 8429 01550 0063 +180 +178 274019 020 022 000 00
055100 1639N 07135W 8433 01547 0065 +177 //// 279019 021 024 000 01
055130 1638N 07136W 8434 01546 0073 +166 //// 275021 023 028 005 01

[SouthFloridawx]

Edit to zoom:

[SouthDadeFish]

And this seems interesting as well...from NHC recon VDM:

RAPID TS DEVELOPMENT IN SE QUAD

Where did you get that from?

[brunota2003]

And this seems interesting as well...from NHC recon VDM:

RAPID TS DEVELOPMENT IN SE QUAD

Where did you get that from?

It came from the last VDM posted on the previous mission...at about 8 pm EDTish.

[stormhunter7]

Appears the center is about 45 miles from the coast of Haiti... (the point that sticks out towards storm) as... noting that wind shear on the west side tonight appears its weaker than last night... which could allow for a better CDO over night and through the morning

[stormhunter7]

Time: 05:34:30Z
Coordinates: 17.1833N 70.8667W
Acft. Static Air Press: 843.3 mb (~ 24.90 inHg)
Acft. Geopotential Hgt: 1,545 meters (~ 5,069 feet)
Extrap. Sfc. Press: 1009.8 mb (~ 29.82 inHg)
D-value: -
Flt. Lvl. Wind (30s): From 133° at 26 knots (From the SE at ~ 29.9 mph)
Air Temp: 12.9°C (~ 55.2°F)
Dew Pt: 12.1°C (~ 53.8°F)
Peak (10s) Flt. Lvl. Wind: 28 knots (~ 32.2 mph)
SFMR Peak (10s) Sfc. Wind: 55 knots (~ 63.2 mph)
SFMR Rain Rate: 36 mm/hr (~ 1.42 in/hr)
(*) Denotes suspect data

[SouthFloridawx]

Looks like that was old.

[summersquall]

And this seems interesting as well...from NHC recon VDM:

RAPID TS DEVELOPMENT IN SE QUAD

Where did you get that from?

That was a last VDM from a previous mission (earlier today).

[weatherSnoop]

Product: Air Force Tropical RECCO Message (URNT11 KNHC)
Transmitted: 4th day of the month at 05:17Z
Aircraft: Air Force Aircraft (Last 3 digits of the tail number are 309)
Storm Number: 05
Storm Name: Emily (flight in the North Atlantic basin)
Mission Number: 10
Observation Number: 03

Mandatory Data...

Observation Time: Thursday, 5:11Z
Radar Capability: Yes
Aircraft Altitude: Below 10,000 meters
Coordinates: 17.2N 69.4W (View map)
Location: 94 miles (152 km) to the SSE (160°) from Santo Domingo, Dominican Republic.
Turbulence: Light
Conditions Along Flight Route: In the clear
Pressure Altitude: 1,530 meters
Flight Level Wind: From 130° at 33 knots (From the SE at ~ 37.9 mph)
- The above is a spot wind.
- Winds were obtained using doppler radar or inertial systems.
Flight Level Temperature: 15°C
Flight Level Dew Point: 10°C
Weather (within 30 nautical miles): Thunderstorm(s)
850 mb Surface Altitude: 1,500 geopotential meters

Remarks Section...

Surface Wind Speed (likely by SFMR): 38 knots (~ 43.7mph)

[SouthDadeFish]

Oh ok thanks. I think recon missed the center on this pass.

Edit: it might be because they can't fly that close to the DR.

[SouthDadeFish]

00Z GFDL is also over the Bahamas. Models now have a nice consensus and have credibility with me after having the Gulfstream data this time.

[SouthFloridawx]

000
URNT15 KNHC 040602
AF309 1005A EMILY HDOB 14 20110804
055200 1637N 07137W 8426 01553 0068 +176 //// 290017 018 029 004 01
055230 1636N 07138W 8433 01547 0068 +178 //// 290018 019 024 002 01
055300 1635N 07139W 8429 01553 0071 +175 //// 296018 018 022 001 01
055330 1633N 07140W 8425 01559 0072 +175 //// 296018 019 022 003 01
055400 1632N 07142W 8420 01562 0074 +172 //// 307018 018 022 003 01
055430 1631N 07143W 8430 01551 0072 +173 //// 308018 019 019 001 01
055500 1630N 07144W 8428 01556 0072 +175 //// 312019 020 017 000 01
055530 1629N 07145W 8429 01556 0075 +175 //// 316019 019 012 001 01
055600 1628N 07146W 8429 01555 0076 +172 //// 320019 020 014 000 01
055630 1626N 07148W 8428 01557 0077 +175 //// 317020 021 017 000 01
055700 1625N 07149W 8425 01557 0078 +172 //// 317018 018 018 003 01
055730 1624N 07150W 8432 01552 0080 +163 //// 315018 019 030 011 01
055800 1623N 07151W 8429 01556 //// +146 //// 312016 017 033 016 05
055830 1622N 07152W 8431 01555 //// +144 //// 300019 020 039 021 01
055900 1620N 07154W 8432 01556 0092 +152 //// 300021 021 032 010 01
055930 1619N 07155W 8428 01558 0084 +164 +160 300020 021 018 002 00
060000 1618N 07156W 8429 01557 0085 +165 +159 307022 023 009 001 00
060030 1617N 07157W 8426 01559 0084 +165 +160 313023 024 003 001 00
060100 1616N 07158W 8433 01553 0080 +168 +162 313019 022 005 002 00
060130 1615N 07159W 8426 01561 0083 +167 +164 319020 020 005 001 03
$$
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[SouthFloridawx]

000
URNT12 KNHC 040606
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE AL052011
A. 04/05:41:50Z
B. 16 deg 59 min N
071 deg 13 min W
C. 850 mb 1470 m
D. 43 kt
E. 081 deg 76 nm
F. 130 deg 43 kt
G. 083 deg 97 nm
H. EXTRAP 1007 mb
I. 15 C / 1525 m
J. 15 C / 1538 m
K. 15 C / NA
L. NA
M. NA
N. 1345 / 8
O. 0.02 / 1 nm
P. AF309 1005A EMILY OB 04
MAX FL WIND 43 KT E QUAD 05:13:30Z
SLP EXTRAP FROM 850 MB
MAX FL TEMP 17 C 073 / 43 NM FROM FL CNTR
;