ATL: EMILY - Remnants

[Evil Jeremy]

42 hour low pressure frame:

As strong as the vorticity is on SouthFloridawx's picture, it doesn't translate here. Emily is an open wave, dispersed tropical energy. But what area is to be tracked as Emily?

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_042m.gif

the GFS has been doing this all year....track the 850mb vorticity....

In that case, that is a wild swing to the east for the GFS.

[crimi481]

Yes - not much confidence in long range forecasting.
Emily could also go only place not forecast - S.W. (goes west - than gets shoved south by the big dome high pressure over mid west)

[SouthFLTropics]

If I recall that's a wild swing to the east for the NOGAPS as well. The mystery continues!

[hurricanedude]

where did the news broadcast say it will reach FL as a cane, he said it will pass off the Carolina coast as a cat 1 cane

[jonj2040]

000
URNT15 KNHC 040441
AF309 1005A EMILY HDOB 06 20110804
043200 1720N 06620W 3756 08052 0427 -190 //// 206016 017 /// /// 05
043230 1719N 06622W 3760 08041 0424 -190 //// 208017 018 /// /// 05
043300 1719N 06624W 3756 08050 0424 -190 //// 209018 019 /// /// 05
043330 1718N 06627W 3758 08045 0423 -190 //// 208017 017 /// /// 05
043400 1717N 06629W 3759 08045 0424 -194 //// 208018 019 /// /// 05
043430 1717N 06631W 3758 08046 0422 -192 //// 207016 017 /// /// 05
043500 1716N 06634W 3758 08044 0422 -190 //// 203015 016 /// /// 05
043530 1715N 06636W 3762 08039 0423 -190 //// 207014 014 /// /// 05
043600 1714N 06639W 3753 08052 0421 -190 //// 203011 012 /// /// 05
043630 1714N 06641W 3762 08036 0422 -187 //// 201009 009 /// /// 05
043700 1713N 06644W 3758 08041 0421 -189 //// 202008 009 /// /// 05
043730 1712N 06646W 3758 08040 0419 -187 //// 201009 010 /// /// 05
043800 1711N 06649W 3758 08040 0419 -185 //// 191008 009 /// /// 05
043830 1711N 06651W 3758 08042 0420 -185 //// 193009 009 /// /// 05
043900 1710N 06653W 3758 08042 0421 -185 //// 190007 008 /// /// 05
043930 1709N 06656W 3758 08042 0421 -184 //// 168003 005 /// /// 05
044000 1709N 06658W 3758 08041 0421 -185 //// 181004 004 /// /// 05
044030 1708N 06701W 3758 08041 0419 -185 //// 163002 003 /// /// 05
044100 1707N 06703W 3758 08039 0418 -183 //// 092001 002 /// /// 05
044130 1707N 06703W 3758 08039 0418 -185 //// 148003 004 /// /// 05
$$
;

[Bocadude85]

The 0z models have the GI data dont they? So perhaps we are going to see a big shift east in all the models

[CronkPSU]

So the gfs has it going due north the first 48 hours? I am so confused!

[ROCK]

42 hour low pressure frame:

As strong as the vorticity is on SouthFloridawx's picture, it doesn't translate here. Emily is an open wave, dispersed tropical energy. But what area is to be tracked as Emily?

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_042m.gif

the GFS has been doing this all year....track the 850mb vorticity....

In that case, that is a wild swing to the east for the GFS.

yep.....wild swings all over the place....IMO they are not initialized correctly...and some take into account a trip over landand disruption....Hell the 12Z CMC opens this up....crazy...doesnt even see it...

[ObsessedMiami]

where did the news broadcast say it will reach FL as a cane, he said it will pass off the Carolina coast as a cat 1 cane

Besides, that is the 5pm newscast.

[Bocadude85]

So the gfs has it going due north the first 48 hours? I am so confused!

Yea if you follow the 850 vort it pretty much goes due north.

[jonj2040]

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[jonj2040]

000
URNT15 KNHC 040451
AF309 1005A EMILY HDOB 07 20110804
044200 1706N 06708W 3758 08040 0418 -185 //// 171002 003 /// /// 05
044230 1705N 06711W 3758 08041 0418 -185 //// 348002 002 /// /// 05
044300 1704N 06713W 3758 08039 0416 -185 //// 048002 003 /// /// 05
044330 1703N 06716W 3758 08036 0415 -185 //// 043003 004 /// /// 05
044400 1703N 06718W 3758 08036 0414 -185 //// 036002 003 /// /// 05
044430 1702N 06721W 3758 08037 0415 -185 //// 056003 003 /// /// 05
044500 1701N 06724W 3758 08037 0415 -185 //// 068001 001 /// /// 05
044530 1700N 06726W 3757 08039 0416 -185 //// 076002 003 /// /// 05
044600 1700N 06729W 3758 08039 0418 -185 //// 060003 003 /// /// 05
044630 1659N 06731W 3758 08041 0419 -183 //// 092003 003 /// /// 05
044700 1658N 06734W 3758 08042 0419 -184 //// 087003 004 /// /// 05
044730 1657N 06736W 3758 08039 0419 -183 //// 085004 004 /// /// 05
044800 1657N 06739W 3758 08041 0419 -180 //// 084004 005 /// /// 05
044830 1656N 06741W 3759 08038 0418 -180 //// 085006 006 028 002 05
044900 1655N 06744W 3759 08037 0418 -180 //// 087007 007 028 002 01
044930 1654N 06746W 3759 08036 0417 -180 //// 091008 008 028 002 01
045000 1653N 06749W 3759 08034 0414 -180 //// 090009 010 027 003 01
045030 1653N 06751W 3760 08035 0415 -180 //// 101011 011 028 003 01
045100 1652N 06754W 3759 08037 0417 -180 //// 112011 012 028 004 01
045130 1651N 06757W 3758 08038 0418 -180 //// 127011 012 028 005 01
$$
;

[TexasF6]

I think you must toss all the model data until we get another recon sweep of data (soon), the spread is telling....

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[SouthDadeFish]

I think you must toss all the model data until we get another recon sweep of data (soon), the spread is telling....

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

The 00Z set of model runs were supposed to be the good set since they had the Gulfstream data in them.

[jonj2040]

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[brunota2003]

Shows that as far as we have come with models, Mother Nature still is totally unpredictable. This whole hurricane season (both ATL and EPAC) have been proving that.

[SouthFloridawx]

It might sound weird, but I think the CLP5 model has performed the best thus far with Emily.

[SouthDadeFish]

Whats with the awkward yellow ring near the center location?



Edit: Sorry I just noticed this was the models thread.

[Cainer]

That has to be one of the most extreme spread in the models that I've seen - the distance between the final point in the BAMD and the NHC track is over 1,500 miles! Obviously the track is heavily favoured to the easterly models, but still, pretty crazy to see.

[bamajammer4eva]

Whats with the awkward yellow ring near the center location?

http://img21.imageshack.us/img21/4434/183rs.jpg

I doubt that is the center and since its consistently been west of the deepest storms I would guess it to be in that notched area on the western side near 17.3/71.8