ATL: EMILY - Remnants

[sunnyday]

I'm also concerned about people having time to prepare. I know they should have everything set by now, but what is shutters need to be installed at the eleventh hour? Heaven forbid, Emily gets up to cat 2 or so, and people want to evacuate but don't have time. I just want to see her go poof!

[SFLcane]

WIll someone post a link for the GFS please

[http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/NCOMAGWEB/appcontroller?prevPage=Model&MainPage=index&model=GFS&area=ATLANTIC&areaDesc=Atlantic+region&page=Model&prevModel=&prevArea=ATLANTIC&currKey=model&prevKey=model&cat=MODEL+GUIDANCE

[sunnyday]

Thanks for your opinion, Jeremy. If not in the morning, I wonder when ts watches would go up.

[Kohlecane]

Is the circulation, near 70 and 17 lon lat

[Bocadude85]

WIll someone post a link for the GFS please

[http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/NCOMAGWEB/appcontroller?prevPage=Model&MainPage=index&model=GFS&area=ATLANTIC&areaDesc=Atlantic+region&page=Model&prevModel=&prevArea=ATLANTIC&currKey=model&prevKey=model&cat=MODEL+GUIDANCE

Thank you.. but link does not work

[cycloneye]

bocadude85,here is the link.

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... el_l.shtml

[ozonepete]

Is the circulation, near 70 and 17 lon lat

More like 17N and 71W to me.

[SouthFloridawx]

Emily is getting pretty lucky for being a weak minimal tropical storm.

[ozonepete]

What is more likely? People in West Palm wake up to an all clear on Thursday morning, or they wake up to a ts watch? I am totally confused.

TS watch more likely than all clear. I'm not saying there will be a TS watch in the morning, it's just more likely.

I agree. They will have a tough time with this but must always err on the side of caution.

[brunota2003]

Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

Been watching Emily for a while now...I think Recon is going to find some interesting things when they visit again later this morning. I am on dial-up and cannot see any loops and what not, but if the centers have stacked, I could see a rapid 20 knot increase occurring if Emily has not gotten too close to land. DMAX is a nightmare, and would aid in that. My best guess on winds before landfall/disruption by Haiti/Cuba are from 55 to 65 knots...but I feel 60 to 65 knots more likely.

[stormreader]

Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

Been watching Emily for a while now...I think Recon is going to find some interesting things when they visit again later this morning. I am on dial-up and cannot see any loops and what not, but if the centers have stacked, I could see a rapid 20 knot increase occurring if Emily has not gotten too close to land. DMAX is a nightmare, and would aid in that. My best guess on winds before landfall/disruption by Haiti/Cuba are from 55 to 65 knots...but I feel 60 to 65 knots more likely.

Wow! If that pans out you're going to see the national media wake up big time.

[SouthFloridawx]

If you want, here is a link to the 850mb vorticity...


http://tinyurl.com/3dy3fsm

You can track it better here. It's not an open wave...

[TexasF6]

from Derek Ortt's blog: 8/3/2011 10:51 PM EDT Tags: dortt

Emily ahs slowed this evening and is moving very slowly to the west. it is expected to resume a motion to the west-northwest at about 10 mph soon. Emily may be a bit better organized than earlier. A large area os showers and thunderstorms have developed in association with the storm. Some of these are rotating over Haiti and the Dominican Republic. It now looks like widespread 5-10 inch accumulations are likely, with higher totals in the high mountains. There is a high liklihood of at least some flooding and mudslides

[Bocadude85]

Hmm sitting in the NW Bahamas at 102hrs. Thats a shift east. I bet we see the HWRF and GFDL shift east.

[Evil Jeremy]

Emily is doing great tonight. I can't help but think, if recon finds that Emily is strengthening modestly, while strengthening isn't even forecasted for the next 12 hours, could a Hurricane watch and not a TS watch be possible for SFL? I know its unlikely, and I don't want to create empty hype, but if Emily strengthens before the Islands, anyone think it could be a possibility?

[bahamaswx]

Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

Been watching Emily for a while now...I think Recon is going to find some interesting things when they visit again later this morning. I am on dial-up and cannot see any loops and what not, but if the centers have stacked, I could see a rapid 20 knot increase occurring if Emily has not gotten too close to land. DMAX is a nightmare, and would aid in that. My best guess on winds before landfall/disruption by Haiti/Cuba are from 55 to 65 knots...but I feel 60 to 65 knots more likely.

She's still extremely lopsided. Weak TS's rarely strengthen rapidly because they're just that--poorly organized.

[SunnyThoughts]

Entire system is sure spinning now.

[UpTheCreek]

geez.. shears seems to have dropped off substantially ... that is a very large burst of convection... LLC still on very western side but with so much convection would not be surprised to see even more migration of the LLC into the convection..


this could bomb out tonight if the shear really is dropping off.. if this convection persists when recon gets out there we could have a 60mph ts ..

Looks like the whole mass of convection is beginning to rotate now.
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/flash-rb.html

Looks to be exploding in those last few frames.

[TwisterFanatic]

Yeah, you can really start to see the spin on Emily. Getting healthier , and healthier as we type. Not good for Haiti and DR.

[Evil Jeremy]

If you want, here is a link to the 850mb vorticity...


http://tinyurl.com/3dy3fsm

You can track it better here. It's not an open wave...

What part of that is Emily? I'm tracking the vorticity entering the FL straits from Cuba as what's left of Emily. Is Emily the strong vorticity in the Central Bahamas?

Look at this and watch the open wave lines that come from the opened Emily:
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... loop.shtml