ATL: IRENE - Remnants - Discussion

[Raebie]

That track looks really bad for Wilmington.

[ConvergenceZone]

At least we can now that say that we are fairly sure it's going to hit the USA mainland in some form, even more so than yesterday....Yesterday I thought we were looking at a recurve.

[bahamaswx]

Still still very ragged looking. Can't believe the pressure has held steady all this time.

[Portastorm]

Some sobering language from HPC this morning:

THE LATEST NUMERICAL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO ADJUST WESTWARD AS HAS
THE LAST SEVERAL NHC TRACK FORECASTS WHICH NOW HAVE EYE OF IRENE
COMING THRU THE NORTH CAROLINA OUTER BANKS LATE SATURDAY BEFORE
GRAZING THE DELMARVA AND NEW JERSEY THEN MOVING INTO THE NORTHEAST
ON SUNDAY. THIS POTENTIALLY COULD BE EXTREMELY DESTRUCTIVE WITH
MASSIVE DISRUPTIONS TO SOCIETY AND COMMERCE ALONG ITS ENTIRE TRACKWITH VERY HIGH WINDS/STORM SURGE/OCEAN OVERWASH/BEACH
EROSION/SOUND AND BAY SIDE COASTAL FLOODING AND EXTREME TIDE
POTENTIAL.

[ncbird]

That track looks really bad for Wilmington.

Yea not looking good for us here in NC. Guess I better batten down the hatches and have the hubby board up the windows.

NCBird

[hurricaneCW]

A reminder that even if Irene is weaker than expected up north, it will likely be a very large storm, probably even larger than it is now and it will cause a lot of destruction. Remember the "weak" only Category 2 storm Ike in Texas.

[sicktght311]

Correct me if i'm wrong, but the westward model trends so far are somewhat of a better thing for NYC and Long Island, especially Long Island, no? Doesnt taking the center of circulation over land for a longer period of time (NC, VA, DE, NJ) bring the chances of a decrease in intensity up by the time it reaches us here?

[bohaiboy]

I agree about most seeming completely unconcerned. I live on the eastern shore of MD and work in PA. No one (in my office or at home) here seems that terribly concerned. The radio stations this morning were calling for scattered rain showers on Sunday with maybe some strong wind gusts. It is being played down publicly, and most people in this area are not familiar with hurricanes and really don't know what to expect/do, other than that they don't expect it to be able to affect them. On the flipside, here at work, they are pulling out all the emergency equipment- particularly the large vehicles (disaster response units, etc.) and checking them over, testing, and making sure they are ready, same goes for the generators. So, preparations are being made, just rather quietly at this point.

As per Google Earth, I live 72 miles inland from where Ike crossed the Texas coastline. We had close to 80 mph winds that far inland, took a tree to the house, was without electricity for 13 days and 14 hrs(and our utilities are underground). The winds from a hurricane are relentless, thery will go on for hours and hours, and if you happen to be in the eye, you will get an eerie calm and then bam, the winds start again, from a different direction and usually just as strong, so that tree that was on your west side of the house and sheltered from the winds is all of a sudden unprotected.

My point is, don't take this too lightly. Don't go outside to watch, flying debris is very dangerous. And make sure you buy as many blue tarps from the big hardware stores as you can, bececause you will have roof damage(you can always take them back if unopened)

Tim in Spring TX

[Aja]

"NOAA on Hurricane Irene "COULD BE EXTREMELY DESTRUCTIVE W/ MASSIVE DISRUPTIONS TO SOCIETY & COMMERCE" http://ow.ly/6cyV0 "

hmmmm..... OK?

[Stephanie]

That track looks really bad for Wilmington.

Yea not looking good for us here in NC. Guess I better batten down the hatches and have the hubby board up the windows.

NCBird

Do it as soon as possible and get the heck out of there! Good luck!

[PTrackerLA]

I don't really see anymore westward component. Looks due north to me now.

[bahamaswx]

Devastation reported from Acklins & Crooked Island. Homes washed out to sea. Still complete silence from Cat Island.

[dolebot_Broward_NW]

These are actual squalls from Irene, not seabreeze style showers like you call it. I do agree, those strong gusts that have been reported during the squalls may not be due to pressure gradient.

These? circled in red - are actual squalls from the storm? Shouldn't there be more? I'm just curious. Since they popped up when they hit land, I assumed what happened was the stronger (than static) wind from the storm forced convection when it hit the more calm air over land. Mayhaps they were tehre, but when hitting land they just got stronger (and more visible)

Don't the more typical squall lines (aka feeder bands?) simply advect from the storm? Well in any event the more static air is likely gone from the first sweep so if we get another set we'll know. I suppose it doesn't matter, the point was that the winds folks were freaking about earlier are pretty much settled down now, and that those winds were local - not sustained TS winds.



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[UpTheCreek]

That track looks really bad for Wilmington.

Yea not looking good for us here in NC. Guess I better batten down the hatches and have the hubby board up the windows.

NCBird

Hi Bird, my hurricane friend! We might just leave, looks as the track's gone westward once again. What a rollercoaster, but tomorrow we'll be pretty certain!

[sweetpea]

Devastation reported from Acklins & Crooked Island. Homes washed out to sea. Still complete silence from Cat Island.

Just gave me chills up and down my back. Prayers for all those people.

[Aja]

THIS DIGGING TROF SEEMS TO BE THE MAIN REASON FOR THE ECMWFS MORE
WESTWARD TRACK OVER THE PAST 2 CYCLES OF HURRICANE IRENE AND NEEDS
TO BE CLOSELY WATCHED AS WE GO INTO THE SHORTER RANGE.

Read the whole spill. The trough part has me asking... How long before we see a clear north turn or is this going to shift west more?

[hurricaneCW]

Correct me if i'm wrong, but the westward model trends so far are somewhat of a better thing for NYC and Long Island, especially Long Island, no? Doesnt taking the center of circulation over land for a longer period of time (NC, VA, DE, NJ) bring the chances of a decrease in intensity up by the time it reaches us here?

It could be but it's such a large storm that it will still effect us significantly. The track is nearly set though I think, Irene has made the NNW turn and will probably not deviate too much from the current 3 day NHC track. Irene may even end a bit east of its current track because it's current motion may be around 340-345 and getting close to due north.

[GTStorm]

THIS DIGGING TROF SEEMS TO BE THE MAIN REASON FOR THE ECMWFS MORE
WESTWARD TRACK OVER THE PAST 2 CYCLES OF HURRICANE IRENE AND NEEDS
TO BE CLOSELY WATCHED AS WE GO INTO THE SHORTER RANGE.

Read the whole spill. The trough part has me asking... How long before we see a clear north turn or is this going to shift west more?

where does this statement come from?

[SENClander]

Had someone here tell me yesterday looks like we dodge another one. Told him not to be so sure. Seen to many of these storms change course within a few hours of landfall. Since he told me that the track has been moving back west. NEVER LET YOUR GUARD DOWN UNTIL IT IS WELL PASS YOU!!.

[wxman57]

Question about the Outer Banks - what's their highest elevation? Average? I'm thinking that Irene's surge may completely inundate the Outer Banks and wash much of it away.