ATL: EMILY - Remnants

[Dave]

000
URNT15 KNHC 032350
AF306 0805A EMILY HDOB 45 20110803
234030 1625N 06928W 8426 01572 0109 +158 +062 171029 030 037 014 00
234100 1623N 06928W 8428 01570 0111 +157 +062 173031 032 036 010 00
234130 1622N 06929W 8423 01578 0108 +162 +061 175031 032 033 009 00
234200 1621N 06930W 8429 01570 0106 +164 +061 175032 032 033 008 00
234230 1619N 06930W 8429 01572 0106 +169 +061 177030 030 032 006 00
234300 1618N 06931W 8427 01574 0105 +170 +061 177030 030 033 006 00
234330 1617N 06932W 8434 01569 0106 +169 +060 176030 030 034 006 03
234400 1616N 06933W 8426 01575 0106 +169 +061 174028 028 032 005 00
234430 1615N 06934W 8429 01572 0106 +167 +061 176027 028 030 006 00
234500 1614N 06935W 8425 01577 0107 +165 +061 182024 025 032 006 00
234530 1612N 06936W 8431 01567 0109 +160 +062 177021 022 037 011 00
234600 1611N 06937W 8437 01561 0103 +170 +062 178026 029 030 006 03
234630 1610N 06938W 8449 01553 0104 +173 +061 171025 027 032 004 03
234700 1609N 06938W 8418 01581 0100 +175 +061 176027 028 034 005 00
234730 1607N 06938W 8428 01573 0102 +174 +060 174027 028 031 002 03
234800 1606N 06938W 8427 01573 0100 +178 +059 173027 028 028 003 00
234830 1604N 06938W 8430 01573 0103 +175 +057 177026 026 027 000 00
234900 1603N 06939W 8425 01578 0102 +178 +057 178024 025 027 001 00
234930 1602N 06939W 8428 01575 0103 +176 +059 176024 024 027 000 00
235000 1600N 06940W 8429 01575 0106 +174 +061 177022 023 025 001 03
$$
;

[Florida1118]

Looking at the 12z Forecast steering charts Emily should start turning NW by Tomorrow morning and by and by Friday morning more a turn more to the N-NW. 12zECMWF has the 850mb Vorticity making landfall between Fort Lauderdale and West Palm Beach.

I think a track shift to the west is going to be needed...by just a nudge lol

[ronjon]

GFDL has SE FL landfall:
https://my.sfwmd.gov/sfwmd/common/image ... orm_05.gif

Wow, I wonder at what intensity? With HWRF and GFDL now hitting SE FL look for watches to go up tomorrow - signficant track shift west at 11.

[Vortex]

If the model trends continue I'd expect watches for portions of FL sometime on Thursday....

[Vortex]

GFDL has SE FL landfall:
https://my.sfwmd.gov/sfwmd/common/image ... orm_05.gif

Wow, I wonder at what intensity? With HWRF and GFDL now hitting SE FL look for watches to go up tomorrow - signficant track shift west at 11.

Agree...

[Kory]

The more I look at the water vapor, I'm realizing she will have to fight dry air for at least the next 24 hours...possibly more.

[Florida1118]

GFDL has SE FL landfall:
https://my.sfwmd.gov/sfwmd/common/image ... orm_05.gif

Wow, I wonder at what intensity? With HWRF and GFDL now hitting SE FL look for watches to go up tomorrow - signficant track shift west at 11.

Agree...

Also agree. There going to need to, I dont see how they can keep it off the coast still

[TwisterFanatic]

FWIW, 18Z HWRF has a major just east of SE FL....really gets going just se of andros...

Link?

[stormhunter7]

Anyone know why recon flew to the east then south and looks to be coming back around for another fix? The alpha pattern is for to vortext fix with the wind behind wings, not flying into the winds! lol Other words... the flight from NE to SE on the east side of emily, would of been a bumpy ride into the wind at 5kft!

[stormhunter7]

PS: Gonzo is about almost back done with the Caribbean part of the flight... next up the channel next to Haiti and flight back towards Miami along the northerc Cuban coast

[Dave]

[Dave]

Lost connect with the S2K server for a few minutes...

000
URNT15 KNHC 040000
AF306 0805A EMILY HDOB 46 20110803
235030 1559N 06940W 8428 01577 0108 +171 +062 175022 022 024 000 03
235100 1558N 06942W 8425 01584 0111 +169 +063 171021 023 /// /// 03
235130 1559N 06943W 8432 01572 0106 +172 +063 170024 025 024 000 03
235200 1601N 06944W 8428 01575 0099 +181 +063 169025 026 027 000 00
235230 1602N 06945W 8428 01575 0103 +176 +063 174026 026 025 000 00
235300 1603N 06947W 8432 01569 0102 +172 +063 175027 028 027 001 00
235330 1605N 06948W 8428 01572 0097 +177 +063 174029 030 027 001 00
235400 1606N 06949W 8429 01571 0095 +183 +062 178029 029 027 001 00
235430 1607N 06951W 8428 01573 0095 +183 +062 178028 028 028 000 00
235500 1609N 06952W 8429 01571 0098 +176 +061 174028 028 028 001 00
235530 1610N 06954W 8429 01570 0099 +175 +061 173029 030 028 002 00
235600 1611N 06955W 8426 01572 0099 +170 +059 171030 031 030 001 00
235630 1612N 06956W 8429 01568 0098 +170 +058 174030 031 028 001 00
235700 1614N 06958W 8426 01569 0101 +169 +057 178031 032 027 000 00
235730 1615N 06959W 8432 01565 0100 +170 +057 186030 031 029 000 00
235800 1616N 07000W 8428 01567 0096 +173 +058 189028 029 029 001 00
235830 1618N 07002W 8431 01563 0096 +173 +059 187026 028 030 000 00
235900 1619N 07003W 8423 01574 0095 +173 +060 182024 026 031 000 00
235930 1620N 07004W 8430 01560 0096 +171 +061 186028 030 032 003 00
000000 1621N 07005W 8429 01563 0095 +172 +062 191031 032 031 001 00
$$
;

[SunnyThoughts]

getting a little better organized? perhaps?

[Dave]

[SouthDadeFish]

Definitely looks like it. Also seems like dry air is getting pushed back for now:

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/flash-wv.html

[Dave]

000
URNT15 KNHC 040011
AF306 0805A EMILY HDOB 47 20110804
000030 1623N 07007W 8429 01563 0096 +168 +062 193029 030 033 002 00
000100 1624N 07008W 8427 01564 0095 +167 +061 189031 031 034 002 00
000130 1625N 07009W 8429 01563 0095 +168 +059 189031 032 036 003 00
000200 1626N 07011W 8432 01559 0093 +170 +059 191030 031 036 002 00
000230 1628N 07012W 8428 01562 0093 +169 +060 190031 032 033 005 00
000300 1629N 07013W 8429 01560 0099 +157 +061 192032 033 034 008 00
000330 1630N 07015W 8425 01564 0098 +157 +060 190033 034 037 009 00
000400 1632N 07016W 8435 01553 0102 +149 +060 196033 034 037 008 00
000430 1633N 07017W 8422 01567 0097 +159 +059 197031 032 038 009 00
000500 1634N 07018W 8430 01561 0099 +160 +058 195028 029 038 015 00
000530 1635N 07020W 8434 01561 0112 +148 +059 195022 026 046 023 03
000600 1636N 07021W 8440 01560 0114 +154 +059 205013 015 040 035 03
000630 1637N 07023W 8415 01586 0115 +149 +060 202013 014 038 042 03
000700 1637N 07024W 8426 01565 0109 +148 +060 204018 020 041 051 03
000730 1638N 07026W 8445 01541 0104 +147 +060 210022 026 053 028 03
000800 1639N 07027W 8428 01560 0094 +163 +060 219006 014 052 021 03
000830 1641N 07028W 8432 01554 0085 +176 +058 264005 007 041 007 00
000900 1642N 07029W 8425 01561 0087 +172 +058 226007 010 040 012 00
000930 1643N 07030W 8440 01547 0099 +154 +058 215006 013 041 017 03
001000 1645N 07031W 8419 01570 0098 +153 +057 169005 010 049 022 00
$$
;

[Dean4Storms]

FWIW, 18Z HWRF has a major just east of SE FL....really gets going just se of andros...

Link?

This site has a little of them all......

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/tcgengifs/

[Vortex]

18Z GFDL landfall in South Florida near miami 86 kts....


http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/gfdltc2. ... =Animation

[Dave]

[Dave]

000
URNT15 KNHC 040020
AF306 0805A EMILY HDOB 48 20110804
001030 1646N 07032W 8414 01571 0098 +153 +057 177012 022 051 023 00
001100 1648N 07033W 8440 01546 0092 +164 +058 175017 022 043 016 03
001130 1648N 07034W 8429 01556 0075 +188 +059 162014 014 037 015 03
001200 1649N 07036W 8429 01551 0080 +175 +060 166013 014 034 009 00
001230 1650N 07038W 8437 01543 0084 +162 +062 203011 013 033 007 00
001300 1651N 07039W 8429 01550 0079 +172 +062 228004 006 031 006 03
001330 1652N 07040W 8433 01546 0066 +193 +062 201005 006 022 002 03
001400 1653N 07042W 8426 01554 0066 +192 +062 276002 003 021 001 03
001430 1653N 07043W 8433 01546 0059 +202 +064 309003 004 021 001 00
001500 1654N 07045W 8433 01549 0060 +207 +066 290004 006 /// /// 03
001530 1656N 07045W 8430 01548 0059 +201 +069 261005 006 020 000 03
001600 1657N 07045W 8428 01550 0057 +204 +069 192005 006 019 000 03
001630 1659N 07044W 8424 01556 0053 +211 +070 155007 008 020 001 03
001700 1700N 07043W 8434 01543 0057 +207 +071 127011 013 016 000 03
001730 1701N 07042W 8423 01555 0058 +201 +071 132012 012 014 000 03
001800 1701N 07040W 8432 01546 0058 +201 +070 130014 014 019 001 03
001830 1702N 07039W 8431 01550 0059 +202 +070 132019 021 027 001 03
001900 1703N 07037W 8428 01551 0060 +201 +070 137025 026 028 000 03
001930 1704N 07036W 8431 01551 0065 +199 +070 123025 025 030 002 00
002000 1705N 07035W 8428 01556 0072 +191 +070 127026 026 033 000 00
$$
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