ATL: EMILY - Remnants

[Vortex]

HWRF 18Z takes Emily to a peak intensity of 107kts.. closest approach appears just east west palm than N and NE where she becomes a major...





http://coaps.fsu.edu/~maue/extreme/hwrf ... 8_wind.png

[CourierPR]

Turn to a more northward motion should begin soon. Looking at this large-scale loop, a hint of a northward jog can be detected:

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/tatl/flash-wv.html

I respectfully disagree. Look at the dark blue dot in the center of convection still going west.

[Dave]

000
URNT15 KNHC 032340
AF306 0805A EMILY HDOB 44 20110803
233030 1650N 06919W 8425 01574 0107 +165 +065 163034 035 032 005 00
233100 1648N 06919W 8429 01571 0102 +171 +065 169034 034 032 005 00
233130 1647N 06920W 8433 01566 0101 +172 +065 166035 036 034 008 00
233200 1646N 06920W 8428 01570 0105 +165 +065 160035 036 035 010 00
233230 1644N 06921W 8429 01568 0097 +179 +066 163035 036 035 008 03
233300 1643N 06920W 8433 01565 0097 +174 +066 165031 031 041 011 00
233330 1642N 06920W 8430 01566 0105 +158 +067 148028 030 044 014 00
233400 1640N 06920W 8424 01574 0114 +145 +067 153024 025 041 014 00
233430 1639N 06920W 8431 01567 0104 +165 +067 168030 030 038 010 00
233500 1637N 06919W 8434 01567 0109 +160 +066 159030 031 036 009 03
233530 1636N 06920W 8434 01565 0107 +165 +066 161030 032 040 008 00
233600 1635N 06920W 8431 01569 0106 +166 +066 166032 035 041 010 00
233630 1633N 06921W 8425 01575 0110 +159 +066 169034 036 039 009 03
233700 1632N 06922W 8418 01580 0106 +160 +066 162029 031 036 010 03
233730 1632N 06923W 8434 01563 0101 +167 +065 175030 033 036 009 00
233800 1631N 06924W 8412 01586 0104 +164 +065 162031 032 036 010 00
233830 1630N 06926W 8430 01569 0108 +162 +064 166033 034 032 007 03
233900 1629N 06926W 8428 01571 0106 +160 +064 164031 032 036 008 03
233930 1627N 06927W 8424 01573 0106 +158 +063 154030 033 041 013 00
234000 1626N 06927W 8429 01568 0108 +156 +063 162028 030 038 012 00
$$
;

[Kory]

Turn to a more northward motion should begin soon. Looking at this large-scale loop, a hint of a northward jog can be detected:

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/tatl/flash-wv.html

I respectfully disagree. Look at the dark blue dot in the center of convection still going west.

Looks stationary to me...

[Vortex]

Actually has a major about 10 miles E of west palm on this run...

[Kory]

HWRF 18Z takes Emily to a peak intensity of 107kts.. closest aproach appears just east west palm than N and NE where she becomes a major...





http://coaps.fsu.edu/~maue/extreme/hwrf ... 8_wind.png

The HWRF is always a bit generous with intensity. I just don't see Emily becoming a major hurricane...she's been struggling this whole time.


The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[SunnyThoughts]

SUMMARY OF 800 PM EDT...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.9N 70.6W
ABOUT 75 MI...125 KM SE OF ISLA BEATA DOMINICAN REPUBLIC
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...STATIONARY
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB...29.65 INCHES

[cycloneye]

Attention please!! We have a Emily models thread to post the runs there,thank you.

[NDG]

latest GFS heading for the KEys..

Huh, GFS shifted from Bahamas to Keys?

To be fair, going by the forecasted H85 vorticity its track is 50-100 miles west, still a good shift west compared to its 12z run.
I see tropical storm watches being put up in the morning for SE FL if trends continue.

Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[CourierPR]

HWRF 18Z takes Emily to a peak intensity of 107kts.. closest approach appears just east west palm than N and NE where she becomes a major...

Vortex, that turn over Hispaniola is very sharp and I just don't see that happening. I could always be wrong, though.

[Florida1118]

HWRF 18Z takes Emily to a peak intensity of 107kts.. closest approach appears just east west palm than N and NE where she becomes a major...


http://coaps.fsu.edu/~maue/extreme/hwrf ... 8_wind.png

The HWRF is always a bit generous with intensity. I just don't see Emily becoming a major hurricane...she's been struggling this whole time.


The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

Because shes in the "Deadzone" of the Atlantic, the Dry air from the mountains to the North and the Desert to the South isnt helping when shes sucking that in. Shes also being sheared. when in the Bahamas, conditions look better for strengthening.

[Dave]

[paintplaye]

Turn to a more northward motion should begin soon. Looking at this large-scale loop, a hint of a northward jog can be detected:

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/tatl/flash-wv.html

I respectfully disagree. Look at the dark blue dot in the center of convection still going west.

Looks stationary to me...

With how weak this system is, water vapor (or most other sat. besides visible) will not show the true movement. Right here this water vapor is showing consolidation towards the end of the loop which could be confused for a northern movement.

[Dave]

000
URNT12 KNHC 032344
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE AL052011
A. 03/23:00:20Z
B. 16 deg 52 min N
070 deg 35 min W
C. 850 mb 1469 m
D. 38 kt
E. 165 deg 5 nm
F. 221 deg 26 kt
G. 175 deg 23 nm
H. 1004 mb
I. 18 C / 1526 m
J. 20 C / 1524 m
K. 9 C / NA
L. NA
M. NA
N. 1345 / 08
O. 0.02 / 2 nm
P. AF306 0805A EMILY OB 21
MAX FL WIND 43 KT SE QUAD 21:10:00Z
MAX OUTBOUND FL WIND 42 KT E QUAD 23:18:30Z

[Kory]

HWRF 18Z takes Emily to a peak intensity of 107kts.. closest approach appears just east west palm than N and NE where she becomes a major...

http://coaps.fsu.edu/~maue/extreme/hwrf ... 8_wind.png

The HWRF is always a bit generous with intensity. I just don't see Emily becoming a major hurricane...she's been struggling this whole time.

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

Because shes in the "Deadzone" of the Atlantic, the Dry air from the mountains to the North and the Desert to the South isnt helping when shes sucking that in. Shes also being sheared. when in the Bahamas, conditions look better for strengthening.

They are not pristine for strengthening, but gradual strengthening is what I'm expecting. Some slight north shear cannot be ruled out from the ridge over the US along with dry air being pulled in from over the Southeast. We'll have to see if it even survives Hispaniola...

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[Vortex]

FWIW, 18Z HWRF has a major just east of SE FL....really gets going just se of andros...

[Dave]

DECODED VDM OB 21

Product: Air Force Vortex Message (URNT12 KNHC)
Transmitted: 3rd day of the month at 23:44Z
Aircraft: Air Force Aircraft (Last 3 digits of the tail number are 306)
Storm Number & Year: 05L in 2011
Storm Name: Emily (flight in the North Atlantic basin)
Mission Number: 8
Observation Number: 21
A. Time of Center Fix: 3rd day of the month at 23:00:20Z
B. Center Fix Coordinates: 16°52'N 70°35'W (16.8667N 70.5833W)
B. Center Fix Location: 121 miles (194 km) to the SSW (202°) from Santo Domingo, Dominican Republic.
C. Minimum Height at Standard Level: 1,469m (4,820ft) at 850mb
D. Estimated (by SFMR or visually) Maximum Surface Wind: 38kts (~ 43.7mph)
E. Location of the Estimated Maximum Surface Wind: 5 nautical miles (6 statute miles) to the SSE (165°) of center fix
F. Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: From 221° at 26kts (From the SW at ~ 29.9mph)
G. Location of Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: 23 nautical miles (26 statute miles) to the S (175°) of center fix
H. Minimum Sea Level Pressure: 1004mb (29.65 inHg)
I. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Outside Eye: 18°C (64°F) at a pressure alt. of 1,526m (5,007ft)
J. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Inside Eye: 20°C (68°F) at a pressure alt. of 1,524m (5,000ft)
K. Dewpoint Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): 9°C (48°F)
K. Sea Surface Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): Not Available
L. Eye Character: Not Available
M. Eye Shape: Not Available
N. Fix Determined By: Penetration, Wind, Pressure and Temperature
N. Fix Levels (sfc and flt lvl centers are within 5nm of each other): Surface and 850mb
O. Navigation Fix Accuracy: 0.02 nautical miles
O. Meteorological Accuracy: 2 nautical miles
Remarks Section:
Maximum Flight Level Wind: 43kts (~ 49.5mph) in the southeast quadrant at 21:10:00Z
Maximum Flight Level Wind Outbound: 42kts (~ 48.3mph) in the east quadrant at 23:18:30Z

[Rgv20]

Looking at the 12z Forecast steering charts Emily should start turning NW by Tomorrow morning and by and by Friday morning more a turn more to the N-NW. 12zECMWF has the 850mb Vorticity making landfall between Fort Lauderdale and West Palm Beach.

[Florida1118]

They are not pristine for strengthening, but gradual strengthening is what I'm expecting. Some slight north shear cannot be ruled out from the ridge over the US along with dry air being pulled in from over the Southeast. We'll have to see if it even survives Hispaniola...


The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

Yeah, but they will be better as indicated by the NHC intensity forecast. And Yeah, who knows if she even makes it to the other side lol...

[Evil Jeremy]

GFDL has SE FL landfall:
https://my.sfwmd.gov/sfwmd/common/image ... orm_05.gif