ATL: IRENE - Remnants - Discussion

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Re: ATL: IRENE - Recon

#6441 Postby Chris_in_Tampa » Thu Aug 25, 2011 8:06 am

Image

URNT12 KNHC 251240 CCA
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE AL092011
A. 25/12:11:10Z
B. 25 deg 25 min N
076 deg 34 min W
C. 700 mb 2687 m
D. 90 kt
E. 329 deg 24 nm
F. 067 deg 93 kt
G. 326 deg 32 nm
H. 952 mb
I. 11 C / 3044 m
J. 16 C / 3051 m
K. 14 C / NA
L. OPEN W
M. C33
N. 12345 / 7
O. 0.02 / 1.5 nm
P. AF300 1909A IRENE OB 16 CCA
MAX FL WIND 111 KT NE QUAD 10:31:50Z
REMNANT INNER EYEWALL OPEN SW-NW
MAX WINDS FOUND IN OUTER BAND
COR FOR SONDE SLP

Product: Air Force Vortex Message (URNT12 KNHC)
Transmitted: 25th day of the month at 12:40Z
Corrected: This observation corrected a previous observation.
Aircraft: Air Force Aircraft (Last 3 digits of the tail number are 300)
Storm Number & Year: 09L in 2011
Storm Name: Irene (flight in the North Atlantic basin)
Mission Number: 19
Observation Number: 16
A. Time of Center Fix: 25th day of the month at 12:11:10Z
B. Center Fix Coordinates: 25°25'N 76°34'W (25.4167N 76.5667W)
B. Center Fix Location: 54 miles (87 km) to the ENE (63°) from Nassau, Bahamas.
C. Minimum Height at Standard Level: 2,687m (8,816ft) at 700mb
D. Estimated (by SFMR or visually) Maximum Surface Wind: 90kts (~ 103.6mph)
E. Location of the Estimated Maximum Surface Wind: 24 nautical miles (28 statute miles) to the NNW (329°) of center fix
F. Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: From 67° at 93kts (From the ENE at ~ 107.0mph)
G. Location of Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: 32 nautical miles (37 statute miles) to the NW/NNW (326°) of center fix
H. Minimum Sea Level Pressure: 952mb (28.11 inHg)
I. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Outside Eye: 11°C (52°F) at a pressure alt. of 3,044m (9,987ft)
J. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Inside Eye: 16°C (61°F) at a pressure alt. of 3,051m (10,010ft)
K. Dewpoint Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): 14°C (57°F)
K. Sea Surface Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): Not Available
L. Eye Character: Open in the west
M. Eye Shape & Diameter: Circular with a diameter of 33 nautical miles (38 statute miles)
N. Fix Determined By: Penetration, Radar, Wind, Pressure and Temperature
N. Fix Level: 700mb
O. Navigation Fix Accuracy: 0.02 nautical miles
O. Meteorological Accuracy: 1.5 nautical miles
Remarks Section - Remarks That Were Decoded...
Maximum Flight Level Wind: 111kts (~ 127.7mph) in the northeast quadrant at 10:31:50Z
Remarks Section - Additional Remarks...
REMNANT INNER EYEWALL OPEN SW-NW
MAX WINDS FOUND IN OUTER BAND
COR FOR SONDE SLP

------------------
Then 8 minutes later, NOAA plane...
------------------

URNT12 KWBC 251248
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE AL092011
A. 25/1219Z
B. 25 DEG 26 MIN N
76 DEG 37 MIN W
C. NA
D. 52 KT
E. 235 DEG 62 NM
F. 338 DEG 75 KT
G. 247 DEG 29 NM
H. 951 MB
I. 14 C/2458 M
J. 20 C/2450 M
K. 18 C/NA
L. OPEN SW
M. C15
N. 12345/NA
O. 1/1 NM
P. NOAA3 2009A IRENE OB 20
MAX OUTBOUND FL WIND 109kts NE QUAD 1225Z

Product: NOAA Vortex Message (URNT12 KWBC)
Transmitted: 25th day of the month at 12:48Z
Aircraft: Lockheed WP-3D Orion (Reg. Num. N43RF)
Storm Number & Year: 09L in 2011
Storm Name: Irene (flight in the North Atlantic basin)
Mission Number: 20
Observation Number: 20
A. Time of Center Fix: 25th day of the month at 12:19Z
B. Center Fix Coordinates: 25°26'N 76°37'W (25.4333N 76.6167W)
B. Center Fix Location: 52 miles (83 km) to the ENE (61°) from Nassau, Bahamas.
C. Minimum Height at Standard Level: Not Available
D. Estimated (by SFMR or visually) Maximum Surface Wind: 52kts (~ 59.8mph)
E. Location of the Estimated Maximum Surface Wind: 62 nautical miles (71 statute miles) to the SW (235°) of center fix
F. Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: From 338° at 75kts (From the NNW at ~ 86.3mph)
G. Location of Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: 29 nautical miles (33 statute miles) to the WSW (247°) of center fix
H. Minimum Sea Level Pressure: 951mb (28.08 inHg)
I. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Outside Eye: 14°C (57°F) at a pressure alt. of 2,458m (8,064ft)
J. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Inside Eye: 20°C (68°F) at a pressure alt. of 2,450m (8,038ft)
K. Dewpoint Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): 18°C (64°F)
K. Sea Surface Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): Not Available
L. Eye Character: Open in the southwest
M. Eye Shape & Diameter: Circular with a diameter of 15 nautical miles (17 statute miles)
N. Fix Determined By: Penetration, Radar, Wind, Pressure and Temperature
N. Fix Level: Other - Not surface, 1500ft, 925mb (if vortex is newer than about mid 90's; see note for more), 850mb, 700mb, 500mb, 400mb, 300mb or 200mb
O. Navigation Fix Accuracy: 1 nautical mile
O. Meteorological Accuracy: 1 nautical mile
Remarks Section:
Maximum Flight Level Wind Outbound: 109kts (~ 125.4mph) in the northeast quadrant at 12:25Z
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Re: ATL: IRENE - Hurricane - Discussion

#6442 Postby eastcoastFL » Thu Aug 25, 2011 8:07 am

falcon wrote:Live webcam, Palm Beach.
Probably the best webcam I´ve ever seen.

http://www.earthcam.com/usa/florida/palmbeach/



looks like the ritz carlton on lake worth beach. im in west palm its getting a little nasty out.
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Re: ATL: IRENE - Hurricane - Discussion

#6443 Postby GCANE » Thu Aug 25, 2011 8:08 am

Looks like a developing region of subsidence over west Cuba, Fl Straights, and the Keys is beginning to disrupt UL outflow on Irene's SW flank.


Image

Image
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Re: ATL: IRENE - Hurricane - Discussion

#6444 Postby FireRat » Thu Aug 25, 2011 8:08 am

As of now I think Irene has given us in South Florida more weather than Hurricane Floyd ever did, I guess you can say this was an even closer call! Incredible how the NHC's accuracy has improved since then, think about it....in 1999 we were under a Hurricane Watch because of Floyd if I'm not mistaken, now with Irene about as close if not closer and with more weather to offer us....no watches or warnings except for offshore mariners!
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Re: ATL: IRENE - Hurricane - Discussion

#6445 Postby caneman » Thu Aug 25, 2011 8:08 am

I agree. T.S. Watch should be in order. WOW. Nice webcam. Some heave wind there.
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Re: Re:

#6446 Postby Bocadude85 » Thu Aug 25, 2011 8:09 am

Bocadude85 wrote:
Aric Dunn wrote:for all intensive purposes... SF should have had TS watches and well warnings put up.. being that well there is a whole lot of convection coming with TS force winds.. lol bad call by NHC in my own opinion ..



To be honest the winds here really have not been very strong..



And of course as soon as I say that a squall comes through and the winds really pick up.
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Re: ATL: IRENE - Hurricane - Discussion

#6447 Postby Lowpressure » Thu Aug 25, 2011 8:10 am

NDG wrote:
falcon wrote:Live webcam, Palm Beach.
Probably the best webcam I´ve ever seen.

http://www.earthcam.com/usa/florida/palmbeach/



That indeed is a nice one!

Nice cam, and I have been in TS warnings for a whole lot less, back when I lived in Jax, Fl
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Re: ATL: IRENE - Hurricane - Discussion

#6448 Postby mutley » Thu Aug 25, 2011 8:11 am

wxman57 wrote:


Yeah, as I mentioned yesterday, the steering currents are not static. That trof is deepening along the east coast and the high is moving off to the east. That will allow for the northerly turn later today.


You were right. The weakness between the highs is finally opening up a bit, and shifting back eastward. With that said, the trough over the southeast seems to be pushing hard enough on the Atlantic high, that it is gaining a positive axis. I just wonder if this is why Irene is not going 360 yet.
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Re: ATL: IRENE - Hurricane - Discussion

#6449 Postby O Town » Thu Aug 25, 2011 8:11 am

falcon wrote:Live webcam, Palm Beach.
Probably the best webcam I´ve ever seen.

http://www.earthcam.com/usa/florida/palmbeach/


Good view indeed. You can see the waves getting very close to the sea wall.
Will be interesting to watch for the new few hours. Thanks for the link. 8-)
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Re: ATL: IRENE - Hurricane - Discussion

#6450 Postby DESTRUCTION5 » Thu Aug 25, 2011 8:11 am

caneman wrote:I agree. T.S. Watch should be in order. WOW. Nice webcam. Some heave wind there.


Im there now on Indiantown rd and its blowign sideways in this squall..
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#6451 Postby psyclone » Thu Aug 25, 2011 8:11 am

a couple of days ago i was really hopeful this would avoid the coast. now that appears it's not going to happen. i agree with wxman57 in that this system reminds me of ike. a large, powerful storm with an enormous windfield. there's gonna be tremendous water action with this system over a large area. i hope everyone is preparing. the weather channel has been showing a live shot somewhere in the bahamas this morning...it is pretty scary and that pounding is gonna last a long time.
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Re: Re:

#6452 Postby Aric Dunn » Thu Aug 25, 2011 8:11 am

Bocadude85 wrote:
Aric Dunn wrote:for all intensive purposes... SF should have had TS watches and well warnings put up.. being that well there is a whole lot of convection coming with TS force winds.. lol bad call by NHC in my own opinion ..



To be honest the winds here really have not been very strong..



Area farther south will slowly see winds lessen has the center passes to their east and winds begin to switch. Palm beach seems to have the highest winds right now.. sustained at 35 gusting over 40.
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Re:

#6453 Postby Cryomaniac » Thu Aug 25, 2011 8:11 am

Aric Dunn wrote:for all intensive purposes... SF should have had TS watches and well warnings put up.. being that well there is a whole lot of convection coming with TS force winds.. lol bad call by NHC in my own opinion ..


I hate to be a grammar nazi, but the phrase is "for all intents and purposes".

To be on topic, I'm inclined to agree that bits of Florida should have at least TS watches.
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Re: ATL: IRENE - Hurricane - Discussion

#6454 Postby sandyb » Thu Aug 25, 2011 8:12 am

FireRat wrote:As of now I think Irene has given us in South Florida more weather than Hurricane Floyd ever did, I guess you can say this was an even closer call! Incredible how the NHC's accuracy has improved since then, think about it....in 1999 we were under a Hurricane Watch because of Floyd if I'm not mistaken, now with Irene about as close if not closer and with more weather to offer us....no watches or warnings except for offshore mariners!



we got floyd up here and we are under the watch now sure it will go to a warning tomorrow
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Re: ATL: IRENE - Hurricane - Discussion

#6455 Postby caneman » Thu Aug 25, 2011 8:12 am

Loks back to NNW now
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Re: ATL: IRENE - Hurricane - Discussion

#6456 Postby GCANE » Thu Aug 25, 2011 8:13 am

Hi-res Aqua pass yesterday afternoon 2:10PM EDT


http://eoimages.gsfc.nasa.gov/images/im ... 36_lrg.jpg
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Re: ATL: IRENE - Hurricane - Discussion

#6457 Postby sandyb » Thu Aug 25, 2011 8:14 am

caneman wrote:Loks back to NNW now


looks like its feeling the trof to the nw can it start making the ne turn much sooner then expected?
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Re: Re:

#6458 Postby Aric Dunn » Thu Aug 25, 2011 8:15 am

Cryomaniac wrote:
Aric Dunn wrote:for all intensive purposes... SF should have had TS watches and well warnings put up.. being that well there is a whole lot of convection coming with TS force winds.. lol bad call by NHC in my own opinion ..


I hate to be a grammar nazi, but the phrase is "for all intents and purposes".

To be on topic, I'm inclined to agree that bits of Florida should have at least TS watches.


well at least somebody knows.... they should just change it... :P
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#6459 Postby gatorcane » Thu Aug 25, 2011 8:15 am

Mesoscale wind analysis showing that the strong winds are offhsore the Florida east coast:

Image
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caneman

Re: ATL: IRENE - Hurricane - Discussion

#6460 Postby caneman » Thu Aug 25, 2011 8:18 am

Some of those will surely make it in. NHC has done a remarkable job thus far but I think a fail on not at least having a T.S. Watch up for S.E. Florida.
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