ATL: IRENE - Remnants - Discussion

[drezee]

And becuase I love you guys so much one more...

The 12z point for the NHC is 25.5N andf 76.5W

Azimuth from point 2 to point 1 = 336.98°

It has to move NNW from here to hit that point...will it...

Ok, I am up now...and it missed the NHC forcast point
latest recon point is exactly 13.711 miles due south of that forecast point 49 minutes before the 12z mark...

OK, I am not being critical, but the forecast from 11pm last night was for Irene to pass 25.5N 76.5W that is exactly the coordinates they put in for the 12z pulic discussion which translates to a perfect forecast. The recon fix at 1211z is:
Center Fix Coordinates: 25°25'N 76°34'W (25.4167N 76.5667W)

It missed to the SW. By their, own rules they round. It should have been 25.4 and 76.6W. Ok off my soap box...

[wxman57]

Just remember that those recon fixes are not necessarily going to be in the exact center of the 33 mile-wide eye.

[HurrMark]

I think the only good news right now is that it is not strengthening...I don't know if we are still in an EWRC but it doesn't exactly look that impressive this morning, and I would guess that it is probably not 115 mph like the NHC reports. I think that if the storm doesn't get its act together in the next few hours, I would guess the NHC lowers their forecast intensity.

[Aric Dunn]

I Noticed the wind field has expanded quite a bit.

CMAN station in palm beach reporting 35 sustained

http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=LKWF1

[caneman]

Shouldn't WPB at minimum be under a T.S. Watch??

[drezee]

Just remember that those recon fixes are not necessarily going to be in the exact center of the 33 mile-wide eye.

I know, but they should not be able to choose when and when not the exact numbers. If anything the center has been tilted SW to NE with height over the last two days...

[wxman57]

Latest steering:

http://i220.photobucket.com/albums/dd23 ... g8dlm4.gif

Yeah, as I mentioned yesterday, the steering currents are not static. That trof is deepening along the east coast and the high is moving off to the east. That will allow for the northerly turn later today. But it gets more complicated past the Carolinas as the deep low/trof over eastern Canada may steer Irene more northward - right into western Long Island. Irene is now a little stronger and the same size as Hurricane Ike. It's not going to be just another hurricane that passes by with all hurricane force winds well offshore. This is a BIG DEAL for the east coast from NC through southern Maine.

[drezee]

Latest steering:

http://i220.photobucket.com/albums/dd23 ... g8dlm4.gif

Yeah, as I mentioned yesterday, the steering currents are not static. That trof is deepening along the east coast and the high is moving off to the east. That will allow for the northerly turn later today. But it gets more complicated past the Carolinas as the deep low/trof over eastern Canada may steer Irene more northward - right into western Long Island. Irene is now a little stronger and the same size as Hurricane Ike. It's not going to be just another hurricane that passes by with all hurricane force winds well offshore. This is a BIG DEAL for the east coast from NC through southern Maine.

Also, the wind max is in the outer eyewall now. The wind field will be expanding and pressure falling...very soon

[hipshot]

Just remember that those recon fixes are not necessarily going to be in the exact center of the 33 mile-wide eye.

Wxman57, isn't that a large high pressure area to the NE of Irene out in the Atlantic? Is it forcast to
move further east or backup to the west? It looks like it may have more impact on the path than the trough to the north coming down from Canada.

[N2FSU]

The media isn't too concerned. CNN is running stories on the divorce rate in the South, and Bill Clinton's new vegan diet.

[eastcoastFL]

I see on local radar here that some of the thicker outerbands are approaching the coast. Does anyone know what the winds are like in those bands?

[wxman57]

I see on local radar here that some of the thicker outerbands are approaching the coast. Does anyone know what the winds are like in those bands?

Such bands can contain winds of 30-40 mph with higher gusts.

[Aric Dunn]

for all intensive purposes... SF should have had TS watches and well warnings put up.. being that well there is a whole lot of convection coming with TS force winds.. lol bad call by NHC in my own opinion ..

[falcon]

Live webcam, Palm Beach.
Probably the best webcam I´ve ever seen.

http://www.earthcam.com/usa/florida/palmbeach/

[FireRat]

Moderate to heavy rain here in Sunrise, FL (10 miles west of Ft. Lauderdale). No winds above 5 mph as of yet though, just tropical rain.

[NDG]

Not the best of beach wx at Jupiter Inlet in FL, you can see the squalls moving in and the surf getting rough.

[Aric Dunn]

I see on local radar here that some of the thicker outerbands are approaching the coast. Does anyone know what the winds are like in those bands?

Such bands can contain winds of 30-40 mph with higher gusts.

coastal areas outside the rainbands were already having winds sustained around 30 to 35. those bands will likely have higher gusts over 40 ..

[Bocadude85]

for all intensive purposes... SF should have had TS watches and well warnings put up.. being that well there is a whole lot of convection coming with TS force winds.. lol bad call by NHC in my own opinion ..

To be honest the winds here really have not been very strong..

[Windsong]

They did post TS warnings, but for the coastal waters only. Then in the next breath, they tell coastal residents to expect sustained winds from 30-40 mph. Personally, I am wobble watching today, remembering Charlie and not turning my back on Irene for a second!

[NDG]

Live webcam, Palm Beach.
Probably the best webcam I´ve ever seen.

http://www.earthcam.com/usa/florida/palmbeach/

That indeed is a nice one!