ATL: OPHELIA - Remnants - Discussion

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#641 Postby Gustywind » Tue Sep 27, 2011 3:25 pm

Here is the latest weather forecast from Meteo-Guadeloupe concerning this yellow alert for a risk of strong showers and tstorms.
:rarrow: http://www.meteo.fr/temps/domtom/antill ... ameter=new Date().getTime()


Bulletin of tracking No.: 1
Episode No.:-31 - GD
Tuesday, September 27, 2011 to 16: 00


Meteorological vigilance Guadeloupe
LEVEL: yellow for "strong rain / THUNDERSTORMS".


Current situation and Observations

An area of strong showers and tstorms related to the remnants of ex-tropical storm Ophelia stationed currently near Guadeloupe. At its periphery circulate numerous squall lines. In the late afternoon, Guadeloupe undergoes the passage of these squall lines.

Forecast

This evening and tomorrow Wednesday, this area of strong showers and thunderstorms will remain in the vicinity of Guadeloupe before moving more north tomorrow later in the day. After a lull in the evening, new squall lines will threaten Guadeloupe from the end of night and tomorrow during the day. During these thunderstorms, the wind blow from a westerly direction with gusts reaching 50 to 60 km/h and temporarily stirs up the sea.

Comments /Consequences

Risk of intense precipitations. Caution during your trips and near the areas usually flooded. Sea temporarily chopped during the squall lines.

Summary

Moderate risk of occurrence of the phenomenon.
The expected impact is low to moderate.

Validity - Duration of the phenomenon

Immediate, until Wednesday evening.

Next newsletter:

Wednesday, September 28th 06 PM.
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#642 Postby Dave » Tue Sep 27, 2011 3:28 pm

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#643 Postby Dave » Tue Sep 27, 2011 3:33 pm

326
URNT15 KNHC 272031
AF303 0516A INVEST HDOB 29 20110927
202130 1906N 05905W 9762 00303 0107 +220 +215 076021 023 026 000 03
202200 1907N 05905W 9757 00308 0107 +218 +216 083023 023 027 004 00
202230 1908N 05904W 9766 00299 0107 +220 +215 082024 025 028 000 03
202300 1910N 05903W 9762 00303 0107 +220 +213 084025 026 025 002 00
202330 1911N 05902W 9758 00307 0108 +220 +211 088024 025 021 000 00
202400 1912N 05901W 9764 00302 0109 +220 +215 092023 024 019 001 00
202430 1913N 05900W 9764 00304 0109 +219 +211 093023 024 021 000 03
202500 1914N 05859W 9761 00306 0110 +218 +211 096025 025 022 000 03
202530 1915N 05858W 9751 00315 0110 +216 +207 098024 025 021 000 00
202600 1916N 05856W 9748 00320 0113 +215 +207 103025 025 023 000 03
202630 1917N 05855W 9755 00315 0114 +216 +206 105026 027 025 000 03
202700 1918N 05854W 9768 00305 0115 +218 +201 106026 027 /// /// 03
202730 1918N 05852W 9765 00306 0114 +219 +202 099022 024 /// /// 03
202800 1916N 05852W 9756 00313 0113 +217 +201 093021 021 023 000 03
202830 1914N 05852W 9760 00309 0112 +215 +207 090020 020 024 000 00
202900 1913N 05853W 9759 00309 0112 +215 +209 092021 021 024 000 00
202930 1911N 05853W 9760 00308 0111 +215 +212 092020 021 024 000 00
203000 1909N 05853W 9762 00305 0110 +217 +211 090019 020 024 000 00
203030 1907N 05853W 9758 00308 0109 +216 +211 083019 020 024 000 03
203100 1906N 05854W 9759 00307 0109 +211 //// 076020 020 026 002 01
$$
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#644 Postby Gustywind » Tue Sep 27, 2011 3:34 pm

Loop

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ATL: OPHELIA - Advisories

#645 Postby cycloneye » Tue Sep 27, 2011 3:36 pm

At link below are all the advisories prior to this second period.

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2011/OPHELIA.shtml?

BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION OPHELIA ADVISORY NUMBER 21
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL162011
500 PM AST TUE SEP 27 2011

...OPHELIA REGENERATES INTO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...17.6N 60.5W
ABOUT 175 MI...285 KM ESE OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...30 MPH...45 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...7 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1008 MB...29.77 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION OPHELIA
WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 17.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 60.5 WEST. THE
DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 5 MPH...7 KM/H.
A GRADUAL TURN TO THE NORTHWEST AND NORTH-NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED
OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 30 MPH...45 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST...AND THE DEPRESSION COULD
BECOME A TROPICAL STORM BY WEDNESDAY.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1008 MB...29.77 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL...OPHELIA IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL
ACCUMULATIONS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES OVER THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1100 PM AST.

$$
FORECASTER PASCH




TROPICAL DEPRESSION OPHELIA DISCUSSION NUMBER 21
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL162011
500 PM AST TUE SEP 27 2011

A HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT INVESTIGATING THE REMNANTS OF OPHELIA
HAS FOUND THAT THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION...ALTHOUGH SLIGHTLY
ELONGATED...HAS A SUFFICIENTLY WELL-DEFINED CENTER TO BE CONSIDERED
AS A TROPICAL CYCLONE AGAIN. BASED ON THE AIRCRAFT DATA...THE
INITIAL INTENSITY IS SET TO 25 KT. ONLY MODERATE SOUTHWESTERLY
SHEAR IS ANTICIPATED TO AFFECT THE CYCLONE FOR THE NEXT FEW
DAYS...SO GRADUAL STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST THROUGH 36-48 HOURS.
LATER IN THE FORECAST PERIOD...THE SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO DIMINISH AS
OPHELIA MOVES THROUGH AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE AT SUBTROPICAL
LATITUDES. THIS...ALONG WITH SUFFICIENTLY WARM SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES...SHOULD ALLOW OPHELIA TO EVENTUALLY BECOME A
HURRICANE. THE OFFICIAL NHC WIND SPEED FORECAST IS A BLEND OF THE
STATISTICAL-DYNAMICAL DSHIPS AND LGEM GUIDANCE.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS A HIGHLY UNCERTAIN 285/4. OPHELIA IS EXPECTED
TO MOVE AROUND THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL ANTICYCLONE
FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. BY 72 HOURS OR SO...THE FLOW ON THE
SOUTHEAST SIDE OF A LARGE TROUGH NEARING THE U.S. EAST COAST SHOULD
TURN THE TROPICAL CYCLONE TO THE NORTH. THE TRACK OFFICIAL
FORECAST IS QUITE CLOSE TO THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS...TVCN.



FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 27/2100Z 17.6N 60.5W 25 KT 30 MPH
12H 28/0600Z 18.0N 61.0W 30 KT 35 MPH
24H 28/1800Z 18.7N 61.4W 35 KT 40 MPH
36H 29/0600Z 19.5N 61.6W 40 KT 45 MPH
48H 29/1800Z 21.0N 62.0W 50 KT 60 MPH
72H 30/1800Z 25.0N 63.0W 65 KT 75 MPH
96H 01/1800Z 29.5N 62.5W 75 KT 85 MPH
120H 02/1800Z 37.5N 59.0W 75 KT 85 MPH

$$
FORECASTER PASCH
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#646 Postby Gustywind » Tue Sep 27, 2011 3:38 pm


BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION OPHELIA ADVISORY NUMBER 21
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL162011
500 PM AST TUE SEP 27 2011

...OPHELIA REGENERATES INTO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...17.6N 60.5W
ABOUT 175 MI...285 KM ESE OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...30 MPH...45 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...7 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1008 MB...29.77 INCHES
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#647 Postby Dave » Tue Sep 27, 2011 3:41 pm

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#648 Postby Dave » Tue Sep 27, 2011 3:43 pm

904
URNT15 KNHC 272041
AF303 0516A INVEST HDOB 30 20110927
203130 1904N 05854W 9761 00304 0109 +204 //// 082018 020 027 003 01
203200 1902N 05854W 9761 00302 0107 +213 //// 090019 020 027 003 01
203230 1900N 05854W 9758 00305 0106 +215 //// 086016 017 025 000 05
203300 1859N 05854W 9758 00305 0105 +218 //// 082013 014 022 006 05
203330 1857N 05854W 9758 00305 0105 +216 //// 086010 011 024 009 01
203400 1855N 05854W 9759 00304 0106 +212 //// 077010 011 027 008 01
203430 1853N 05854W 9760 00302 0105 +213 //// 071009 009 026 007 01
203500 1852N 05854W 9760 00303 0105 +215 //// 086007 008 022 004 01
203530 1850N 05854W 9760 00303 0104 +216 //// 095007 008 024 006 01
203600 1848N 05854W 9757 00304 0105 +209 //// 068007 009 027 006 01
203630 1846N 05854W 9760 00302 0105 +209 //// 065005 007 030 010 01
203700 1845N 05854W 9761 00300 0105 +201 //// 077005 005 031 013 01
203730 1843N 05854W 9760 00301 0105 +202 //// 048005 005 032 015 01
203800 1841N 05855W 9760 00301 0104 +205 //// 037005 005 031 013 01
203830 1839N 05855W 9758 00302 0105 +205 //// 035005 005 030 010 01
203900 1838N 05855W 9758 00302 0104 +207 //// 024005 005 027 008 01
203930 1836N 05855W 9758 00301 0102 +211 //// 015006 007 022 005 01
204000 1834N 05855W 9759 00300 0102 +214 //// 015006 006 014 002 01
204030 1832N 05855W 9758 00302 0102 +217 //// 353005 006 004 000 05
204100 1831N 05855W 9760 00301 0102 +216 //// 336005 005 001 001 05
$$
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#649 Postby Dave » Tue Sep 27, 2011 3:55 pm

Going to have to cut out the graphics...to much of a load on this broken laptop...down to 1 gig of ram only now.

245
URNT15 KNHC 272051
AF303 0516A INVEST HDOB 31 20110927
204130 1829N 05855W 9758 00301 0102 +217 //// 337003 004 /// /// 05
204200 1827N 05856W 9761 00299 0102 +215 //// 310004 006 000 000 05
204230 1825N 05856W 9763 00298 0102 +216 //// 292007 008 005 000 05
204300 1824N 05856W 9757 00302 0102 +220 +219 275008 009 001 000 03
204330 1822N 05856W 9759 00302 0102 +220 +212 265009 009 001 000 03
204400 1820N 05856W 9758 00303 0103 +220 +211 268010 011 005 001 03
204430 1818N 05856W 9760 00302 0103 +220 +217 263010 011 004 003 03
204500 1817N 05856W 9761 00301 0104 +219 //// 255009 009 008 002 05
204530 1815N 05856W 9758 00304 0104 +216 //// 242009 009 003 002 05
204600 1813N 05857W 9758 00303 0104 +220 //// 245009 009 004 000 05
204630 1812N 05857W 9760 00302 0104 +220 //// 249008 009 002 001 05
204700 1810N 05857W 9761 00302 0104 +221 +221 244009 009 000 000 03
204730 1808N 05857W 9754 00310 0105 +221 //// 251015 017 013 001 35
204800 1807N 05857W 9769 00294 0105 +216 //// 245016 016 023 006 05
204830 1805N 05857W 9760 00303 //// +195 //// 237020 023 038 015 05
204900 1804N 05857W 9763 00298 0106 +193 //// 232021 023 031 014 01
204930 1802N 05857W 9764 00297 0104 +201 //// 231022 023 034 012 05
205000 1801N 05858W 9762 00299 //// +196 //// 234022 022 036 014 01
205030 1800N 05858W 9765 00296 //// +200 //// 234023 024 033 012 05
205100 1758N 05858W 9761 00300 0104 +212 //// 234024 026 029 010 01
$$
;
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#650 Postby Dave » Tue Sep 27, 2011 4:04 pm

196
URNT15 KNHC 272101
AF303 0516A INVEST HDOB 32 20110927
205130 1757N 05858W 9764 00297 0103 +209 //// 235023 024 034 011 05
205200 1755N 05858W 9770 00293 0103 +209 //// 230023 024 033 010 05
205230 1754N 05858W 9761 00300 0103 +215 //// 229023 025 029 010 05
205300 1752N 05858W 9761 00300 0103 +214 //// 228024 024 032 010 01
205330 1751N 05858W 9765 00296 0103 +215 //// 224026 027 033 013 05
205400 1750N 05858W 9757 00303 0102 +216 //// 227026 027 034 012 01
205430 1748N 05858W 9761 00299 0102 +219 //// 227026 027 030 011 01
205500 1747N 05859W 9765 00296 0101 +225 //// 224028 029 031 009 05
205530 1746N 05859W 9757 00303 0101 +224 //// 223027 028 030 007 05
205600 1744N 05859W 9746 00312 0101 +223 //// 225028 028 030 004 01
205630 1743N 05859W 9759 00302 0102 +225 +224 226027 028 031 005 03
205700 1741N 05859W 9760 00301 0102 +225 +221 225027 028 028 005 03
205730 1740N 05859W 9759 00302 0102 +226 +218 224027 028 031 003 03
205800 1738N 05859W 9760 00302 0103 +225 +216 222028 028 031 005 03
205830 1736N 05859W 9756 00305 0103 +225 +212 219027 028 031 001 00
205900 1735N 05859W 9761 00300 0103 +225 +208 215027 027 029 001 03
205930 1733N 05900W 9760 00302 0103 +225 +207 215027 027 028 002 03
210000 1732N 05900W 9758 00304 0104 +225 +207 215027 027 029 001 03
210030 1730N 05900W 9757 00305 0104 +224 +207 216027 028 027 001 03
210100 1729N 05900W 9756 00307 0104 +221 +207 215028 028 030 001 03
$$
;
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#651 Postby Dave » Tue Sep 27, 2011 4:08 pm

Try it this way...

Image
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#652 Postby Dave » Tue Sep 27, 2011 4:13 pm

245
URNT15 KNHC 272111
AF303 0516A INVEST HDOB 33 20110927
210130 1727N 05900W 9760 00303 0105 +225 +202 215029 029 028 000 03
210200 1726N 05900W 9763 00301 0105 +225 +198 213028 029 028 000 03
210230 1724N 05900W 9757 00305 0105 +225 +200 212027 027 029 000 03
210300 1723N 05900W 9760 00303 0105 +225 +200 209027 028 028 001 03
210330 1721N 05900W 9760 00304 0105 +224 +205 209028 029 029 001 03
210400 1720N 05901W 9760 00304 0106 +223 +207 212028 028 029 000 03
210430 1718N 05901W 9757 00308 0107 +221 +204 217028 029 029 001 03
210500 1717N 05901W 9759 00307 0108 +223 +203 217029 030 026 003 03
210530 1715N 05901W 9760 00307 0109 +222 +205 215028 028 027 001 03
210600 1714N 05901W 9755 00312 0110 +220 +207 216027 028 025 002 03
210630 1712N 05901W 9762 00307 0110 +220 +208 221026 028 023 000 03
210700 1710N 05901W 9760 00308 0111 +220 +207 217025 026 024 001 03
210730 1709N 05901W 9759 00309 0112 +203 //// 219028 030 029 006 01
210800 1707N 05901W 9761 00308 0111 +216 +213 215030 031 026 004 03
210830 1706N 05902W 9757 00311 0112 +214 //// 216025 026 026 001 05
210900 1704N 05902W 9757 00312 0113 +212 //// 210025 026 023 000 05
210930 1703N 05902W 9770 00299 //// +184 //// 221027 029 040 008 05
211000 1701N 05902W 9756 00313 //// +195 //// 211025 026 033 011 05
211030 1700N 05902W 9761 00308 0113 +217 //// 206026 027 026 005 05
211100 1658N 05902W 9762 00308 0112 +220 //// 198025 026 026 004 05
$$
;
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Re: ATL: OPHELIA - Remnants - Discussion

#653 Postby painkillerr » Tue Sep 27, 2011 4:18 pm

Driftin wrote:I know the models say this will move to the north but, with the center now being relocated to the south what are the chances this moves closer towards the northern leeward islands and PR?



I share your concern. The official forecast doesn't comfort me either. According to last week's forecasts, OPHELIA should have been long gone by now and here is she is again, in a more menacing position. I would just continue to monitor her closely. I have the same doubt about her intensity and development. Let's see what happens. As far as I'm concerned right now, only OPHELIA knows!
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#654 Postby Dave » Tue Sep 27, 2011 4:23 pm

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#655 Postby Dave » Tue Sep 27, 2011 4:24 pm

189
URNT15 KNHC 272121
AF303 0516A INVEST HDOB 34 20110927
211130 1657N 05902W 9758 00312 0112 +220 +220 199025 025 020 004 03
211200 1655N 05902W 9759 00310 0112 +219 //// 199025 025 026 001 05
211230 1654N 05902W 9763 00307 0112 +216 //// 205025 025 027 000 05
211300 1652N 05903W 9761 00309 0115 +199 //// 205025 026 029 003 01
211330 1651N 05903W 9757 00313 0114 +216 //// 204026 026 028 006 05
211400 1649N 05903W 9759 00311 0114 +218 //// 207026 027 027 003 05
211430 1647N 05903W 9761 00310 0114 +221 +218 209027 028 028 001 03
211500 1646N 05903W 9759 00313 0115 +220 +216 212027 029 028 000 03
211530 1644N 05903W 9759 00313 0115 +219 +213 211029 030 024 000 03
211600 1643N 05903W 9760 00312 0115 +220 +214 213027 028 026 000 03
211630 1641N 05903W 9758 00315 0117 +217 +216 208025 026 /// /// 03
211700 1640N 05904W 9763 00311 0118 +216 +215 204023 024 /// /// 03
211730 1641N 05906W 9753 00318 0117 +212 +212 209024 025 024 001 03
211800 1643N 05907W 9767 00306 0117 +211 +210 211024 024 024 003 03
211830 1644N 05908W 9761 00310 //// +193 //// 217022 024 031 006 05
211900 1645N 05909W 9761 00308 0114 +202 //// 211019 020 029 012 05
211930 1646N 05910W 9762 00307 0111 +218 +216 216020 021 023 004 03
212000 1647N 05912W 9766 00303 0111 +221 +216 230020 022 021 000 03
212030 1648N 05913W 9759 00309 0110 +220 +214 237018 019 021 001 03
212100 1649N 05914W 9764 00304 0109 +230 +197 237017 019 012 001 03
$$
;
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#656 Postby Dave » Tue Sep 27, 2011 4:25 pm

000
URNT11 KNHC 272120
97779 21174 30167 59100 03100 21024 21218 /0012
41925
RMK AF303 0516A INVEST OB 08
SWS = 25 KTS
INBOUND: SE
;
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#657 Postby HurricaneWarning92 » Tue Sep 27, 2011 4:27 pm

:uarrow: Not even. As she doesnt have a brain :lol: she just goes with the flow.
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#658 Postby Dave » Tue Sep 27, 2011 4:34 pm

Image
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#659 Postby Dave » Tue Sep 27, 2011 4:36 pm

814
URNT15 KNHC 272131
AF303 0516A INVEST HDOB 35 20110927
212130 1650N 05915W 9761 00307 0109 +230 +199 234019 019 009 000 03
212200 1652N 05916W 9761 00306 0109 +226 +205 233019 019 007 000 03
212230 1653N 05917W 9760 00306 0108 +225 +205 225018 018 007 001 00
212300 1654N 05918W 9763 00303 0108 +225 +203 227017 018 008 000 03
212330 1655N 05919W 9760 00305 0107 +222 +203 223019 021 011 001 03
212400 1656N 05920W 9761 00305 0107 +223 +200 223019 020 011 000 03
212430 1657N 05922W 9762 00303 0107 +220 +203 222018 019 017 000 03
212500 1658N 05923W 9761 00303 0107 +222 +200 220020 022 021 001 03
212530 1659N 05924W 9763 00302 0106 +225 +195 220022 023 019 000 03
212600 1700N 05925W 9761 00304 0107 +223 +200 217021 022 021 001 03
212630 1701N 05926W 9760 00305 0107 +223 +205 217020 021 023 000 03
212700 1703N 05927W 9764 00301 0107 +219 +208 215019 020 023 000 03
212730 1704N 05929W 9763 00304 0107 +220 +210 217020 022 020 001 03
212800 1705N 05930W 9762 00303 0107 +218 +212 219023 024 025 000 03
212830 1706N 05931W 9760 00305 0107 +221 +208 218022 022 023 001 03
212900 1707N 05932W 9762 00303 0106 +222 +205 218023 024 024 000 03
212930 1708N 05933W 9761 00302 0106 +224 +202 220024 025 024 000 03
213000 1709N 05934W 9763 00302 0106 +221 +205 217023 024 024 000 03
213030 1710N 05935W 9762 00301 0106 +222 +205 219022 024 024 000 03
213100 1712N 05937W 9763 00302 0105 +222 +208 217022 023 027 000 03
$$
;
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Re: ATL: OPHELIA - Tropical Depression - Discussion

#660 Postby cycloneye » Tue Sep 27, 2011 4:36 pm

This is off-topic for the members who live in the NE Caribbean.A moderate quake occured this afternoon near the Virgin Islands.See the details at the Geology forum on the Eastern Caribbean Seismic thread.

viewtopic.php?f=67&t=107389&p=2197810#p2197810
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