ATL: EMILY - Remnants

[CrazyC83]

I am glad that they are sending recon out this far. I was afraid that budget cuts would have prevented them from being run this far east. With PR under the gun and it generally considered our 51st state I can understand the expense. Let's hope that the current budget crises doesn't interrupt or restrict recon missions.

In the Tomas report last year, the islands complained about Recon not getting out to Tomas and confirming its intensity until less than 24 hours before landfall, and they were seen as caught off guard. I think the Lesser Antilles have more to do with the sending Recon that far out, knowing there is a good chance it could be a hurricane before reaching them.

[cycloneye]

Emily has a bad history...can another chapter be written? Will Emily be the first name ever to reach Category 5 TWICE?

Well,let's not go that far yet,but is a good question.

[JtSmarts]

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2 of our NLWC wrestlers are from Puerto Rico, and I started telling them to call their families yesterday. This system looks like trouble

Canadian at 144 on Emily.. close to my track moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/cmctc2…

Puerto Rico Threatened Tuesday by Emily to Be.. Bahamas after that. anxious moments next weekend for US possible

[Ivanhater]

Mhmmm...all 12z Guidance has come in further south...GFDL doesn not get out of the Caribbean

[floridasun78]

This is definitely not a recurve guys. We call them recurves when they dont affect any land areas but it looks like it will affect the islands, so it wouldnt be a recurve for them--for all we know, it could be a nightmare for them.

I agree, I am not buying the recurve. I am 95% sure this will impact land, starting with the islands. I'm still thinking this goes south of Puerto Rico and Hispaniola towards Jamaica.

this look like unlikely go western carribbean

[northjaxpro]

80%

Up to 80%. I think NHC will pronounce this a TD later tonight, and obviously will hold off until Air Force Recon aircraft gets in there tomorrow to upgrade to TS status it appears.

why? unless is improves later...right now you have 2 areas competing for the same moisture envelope. Until that changes no upgrade. I think both of these guys formed due to very large area of low pressure that came with this wave....I think it was around 1008MB coming across the pond....

ROCK, I get what you are saying. It is just my inclination after what happened last season with the situation with Tomas that they have enough to go by right now to declare this a TD beginning tonight and start the ball rolling to initiate advisories for the people to start preparations in the NE Caribbean islands. Just my opinion.

As I mentioned a moment ago, NHC will wait for data from the Recon aircraft tomorrow before they do any significant upgrade to TS.

[cycloneye]

The only model that goes to the north of the others is HWRF,but now goes over the NE Leewards.12z run.

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/hwrftc2. ... =Animation

[HurricaneWarning92]

This is going to be a great one to track. Does it beat the ridge and recurve into Bermuda, or does the ridge push back and slide it into the Carolinas? Or is the ridge extra strong, pushing it over Florida and into the Gulf? Regardless, this one has the potential to be a loooooong tracker with some really interesting steering.

I'm pumped.

Of the 3 options you mentioned, it's probably scenario 1 (re-curve) ... if not, option 2 (EC threat)

What about option 3?

[CrazyC83]

Mhmmm...all 12z Guidance has come in further south...GFDL doesn not get out of the Caribbean

I still wonder why so many think this will recurve completely or be an east coast threat...

[SouthFloridawx]

GFS develops an ULL to the west of the system, just east of Florida and moves it westward. Not sure what that would do to the track of the system. It may inhibit or aid in the development of the cyclone.

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/gfstc2.cgi?time=2011073012&field=300mb+Vorticity&hour=Animation

[HurricaneWarning92]

This is definitely not a recurve guys. We call them recurves when they dont affect any land areas but it looks like it will affect the islands, so it wouldnt be a recurve for them--for all we know, it could be a nightmare for them.

I agree, I am not buying the recurve. I am 95% sure this will impact land, starting with the islands. I'm still thinking this goes south of Puerto Rico and Hispaniola towards Jamaica.

this look like unlikely go western carribbean

I would say its somewhere in the 50/50 mark. Although this doesnt look its going into the western caribbean. it was a higher chance of just passing to the NE of the islands than heading west. After that, some models recurve it, some dont. We'll have a better idea next week starting monday.

[Gustywind]

The only model that goes to the north of the others is HWRF,but now goes over the NE Leewards.12z run.

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/hwrftc2. ... =Animation

Hey Cycloneye does it mean that progressively this feature could not spare us in the Lesser Antilles?

[Aric Dunn]

Well thats interestsing.... Circ forming way out in front of the larger one... and looks like its breaking off.. lol but it will soon get pulled into the quickly organizing LLC under or near that MLC

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/loop-rgb.html

[Ivanhater]

Finally getting some shape to her..she is beefing up today Outflow is getting ridiculous

[cycloneye]

The only model that goes to the north of the others is HWRF,but now goes over the NE Leewards.12z run.

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/hwrftc2. ... =Animation

Hey Cycloneye does it mean that progressively this feature could not spare us in the Lesser Antilles?

Sorry to say this Gusty,but it looks likely that some islands will be on the gun so to speak.Still is not known which of them will have the most danger.

[hurricanedude]

I love the 50/50 chance thing...that covers your butt...LOL
theres always a 50/50 chance of everything.....plainly put it will or it want...thats 50/50
Now realistically this far out even thinking about where it will go is obserd.....fun to discuss but to really bank your money on it is not a good idea

[Aric Dunn]

12z GFDL way south...

[hurricanedude]

looks better than Don did when he was a 50mph TS

[cycloneye]

Finally getting some shape to her..she is beefing up today Outflow is getting ridiculous

Looking at that far picture,it really looks omminous.

[Aric Dunn]

I love the 50/50 chance thing...that covers your butt...LOL
theres always a 50/50 chance of everything.....plainly put it will or it want...thats 50/50
Now realistically this far out even thinking about where it will go is obserd.....fun to discuss but to really bank your money on it is not a good idea

silly part is ... is that there is a 50/50 chance for the 50/50 chance.. lol