ATL: EMILY - Remnants

[jonj2040]

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[Portastorm]

The BAM models are quite interesting. They are reliable tropical models with a good performance.

Per pro mets, this is true below the 20 degree north latitude line, yes. Above it, no.

[Bocadude85]

Seems like it'll be kind of hard for the NHC to avoid shifting the "line of destruction" (LOL) and "cone of destruction" closer toward Florida here. That oughta get the newscasters excited come evening news time.

I dont think the NHC will shift their track. The TVCN is right on top of their track at the moment

[KWT]

LLC exposed again, and inflow to the LLC has pretty much stopped ... at least the moisture coming in has. LLC might be relocating NE, which would in fact put Emily back on forecast points. Just not sure, but this is why I thought the LLC was opening up. It looks horrible.

I think your seeing tyhe southerly shear kick in, the system briefly got in a slightly lower shear zone where the uppers switch from westerly to southerly, you can see it quite clearly as the cells poof away the LLC still spinning nicely away to the west...

[Aric Dunn]

looks like its going to pass yet another forecast point

I don't think I've seen a storm so consistantly miss its forecast points since the K hurricane that shall not be named!

It really is struggling to pick up any latitude, I don't think many of us would have thought E.Cuba would be a probable destination for this system 5 days ago...

I think it may be do to hispanola itself... as the wind are piled up on the east west orientated mountains there is a slight pressure build up as the winds try to go up and over.. this maybe creating a slight ridging effect... and given since its a small system.. it could be the case... I bet once it passes 71 to 72 w it should start to turn..

[O Town]

All of this shifting back and forth is pretty normal this far out and with a weak system, but its really making me nervous since I am heading down south on the 8th. A weak system would bring good shelling but no one wants anything getting in the gulf because there is always that potential for growing a biggin'

[xironman]

Wind shear may be decreasing now. I think it'll clip western Haiti then go across more of eastern Cuba. May track a little west of Andros. Don't see anything to suggest eastern Gulf.

I see that...and I seems that today's antics might have laid the foundation for a future US landfall IMO

Its certainly hasn't hurt its chances of a US landfall...and unlike wxman57 I'm not convinced you can totally rule out a far E.Gulf risk, it seesm to still be tracking close to due west.

About to hit the southerly shear, perhaps why the latest convection has poofed in the last hour?

The GFS kind of made it look like there was a marginal upper ridge starting to get going in the area, which would have a similar wind shift. It eventually retrogrades it.

[underthwx]

Bocadude.Im sorry Im new at this.what is the TVCN?

[chris_fit]

50 degree dewpoint....thats some serious dry air in the center

Where'd you get this? I 'm seeing ~80 from the dropsonde at the surface

[Blown Away]

Again, GFS short term way off. Does the GFS runs influence the TVCN?

[Evil Jeremy]

Seems like it'll be kind of hard for the NHC to avoid shifting the "line of destruction" (LOL) and "cone of destruction" closer toward Florida here. That oughta get the newscasters excited come evening news time.

I dont think the NHC will shift their track. The TVCN is right on top of their track at the moment

Yet Emily keeps on churning west. NHC has to react to that.

Bocadude.Im sorry Im new at this.what is the TVCN?

It's the consensus model. It's a blend of many computer model runs, a weighted average of sorts.

[ozonepete]

looks like its going to pass yet another forecast point

I don't think I've seen a storm so consistantly miss its forecast points since the K hurricane that shall not be named!

It really is struggling to pick up any latitude, I don't think many of us would have thought E.Cuba would be a probable destination for this system 5 days ago...

I think it may be do to hispanola itself... as the wind are piled up on the east west orientated mountains there is a slight pressure build up as the winds try to go up and over.. this maybe creating a slight ridging effect... and given since its a small system.. it could be the case... I bet once it passes 71 to 72 w it should start to turn..

A very nice meso-analysis there. I think that's a distinct possibility - I've seen it happen before as storms approach mountains along the coast.

[jonj2040]

000
URNT15 KNHC 031910
AF306 0805A EMILY HDOB 17 20110803
190030 1549N 07017W 8436 01552 0086 +171 +076 227015 015 022 000 00
190100 1549N 07018W 8433 01553 0085 +174 +075 220013 015 021 000 00
190130 1549N 07020W 8440 01547 0085 +174 +075 217013 014 022 000 00
190200 1549N 07021W 8436 01553 0085 +175 +075 220013 014 024 000 00
190230 1549N 07023W 8436 01550 0086 +172 +075 220013 013 026 000 00
190300 1549N 07025W 8434 01553 0086 +170 +074 214012 013 028 004 00
190330 1549N 07026W 8446 01541 0092 +164 +073 216013 014 031 011 00
190400 1549N 07028W 8442 01542 0099 +150 +071 223013 015 040 012 00
190430 1549N 07030W 8435 01551 0090 +166 +066 217011 012 029 004 00
190500 1549N 07031W 8440 01545 0099 +150 +064 248009 011 036 011 00
190530 1549N 07033W 8432 01556 0085 +176 +063 259011 011 022 000 00
190600 1549N 07035W 8436 01551 0085 +175 +064 247010 011 021 000 00
190630 1549N 07036W 8433 01555 0084 +176 +067 239009 010 021 001 00
190700 1549N 07038W 8442 01545 0082 +182 +070 244007 007 020 000 00
190730 1549N 07040W 8435 01551 0079 +184 +073 241010 011 017 000 00
190800 1549N 07041W 8436 01548 0076 +185 +074 241010 011 017 000 00
190830 1549N 07043W 8434 01550 0074 +186 +074 234008 010 017 001 03
190900 1549N 07044W 8435 01551 0074 +190 +074 236007 007 016 000 00
190930 1549N 07046W 8432 01553 0072 +191 +075 248008 010 017 000 00
191000 1549N 07048W 8432 01553 0073 +188 +075 267009 009 017 000 00
$$
;

[SouthFloridawx]

So wait, the pressure was down?

[Stormcenter]

Emily is going to have to make a nice sharp turn to the WNW to NW for that track to pan out. IMO

Again, GFS short term way off. Does the GFS runs influence the TVCN?

[jonj2040]

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[Evil Jeremy]

The 5pm cone will be a very touch decision for the NHC. Do they go against most of their beloved models which are taking Emily NW off the bat and base a track around Emily's westward movement? Or do they stick to the models and hope that Emily finally makes the turn?

[TreasureIslandFLGal]

The NHC won't hug the TVCN so much when it gets obvious that the GFS and it's prodigy are neglecting reality at the moment.
I would guess that their next cone will include the state of FL and remain pretty wide.

[SouthFLTropics]

There is definitely some shear present but despite that the LLC continues to fire off new convection. If the shear abates and she's able to stay off of the big island then I we should see some decent organization.

SFT

[Aric Dunn]

surprised a bit to see the models not shifting yet.. but they are very stubborn sometimes.. I remember jeanne they waited and waited till she already started turning before they switch... by 00z she will be at a point that would require nearly a straight north turn... I think by that time the models will finally pick up its westward movement.