ATL: IRENE - Remnants - Discussion

[Dave]

DECODED VDM FOR OBS 7

Product: Air Force Vortex Message (URNT12 KNHC)
Transmitted: 25th day of the month at 00:21Z
Corrected: This observation corrected a previous observation.
Aircraft: Air Force Aircraft (Last 3 digits of the tail number are 302)
Storm Number & Year: 09L in 2011
Storm Name: Irene (flight in the North Atlantic basin)
Mission Number: 17
Observation Number: 07
A. Time of Center Fix: 24th day of the month at 23:50:00Z
B. Center Fix Coordinates: 23°27'N 75°02'W (23.45N 75.0333W)
B. Center Fix Location: 183 miles (295 km) to the SE (128°) from Nassau, Bahamas.
C. Minimum Height at Standard Level: 2,684m (8,806ft) at 700mb
D. Estimated (by SFMR or visually) Maximum Surface Wind: 71kts (~ 81.7mph)
E. Location of the Estimated Maximum Surface Wind: 52 nautical miles (60 statute miles) to the SE (133°) of center fix
F. Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: From 212° at 87kts (From the SSW at ~ 100.1mph)
G. Location of Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: 47 nautical miles (54 statute miles) to the SE (133°) of center fix
H. Minimum Sea Level Pressure: 953mb (28.14 inHg)
I. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Outside Eye: 7°C (45°F) at a pressure alt. of 3,047m (9,997ft)
J. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Inside Eye: 16°C (61°F) at a pressure alt. of 3,055m (10,023ft)
K. Dewpoint Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): 11°C (52°F)
K. Sea Surface Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): Not Available
L. Eye Character: Open from the east-northeast to the south-southwest
M. Eye Shape: Concentric (has an inner and outer eye)
M. Inner Eye Diameter: 14 nautical miles (16 statute miles)
M. Outer Eye Diameter: 64 nautical miles (74 statute miles)
N. Fix Determined By: Penetration, Radar, Wind, Pressure and Temperature
N. Fix Level: 700mb
O. Navigation Fix Accuracy: 0.02 nautical miles
O. Meteorological Accuracy: 2 nautical miles
Remarks Section:
Maximum Flight Level Wind: 87kts (~ 100.1mph) in the southeast quadrant at 23:33:40Z
Maximum Flight Level Wind Outbound: 99kts (~ 113.9mph) in the northwest quadrant at 0:03:40Z
Maximum Flight Level Temp: 15°C (59°F) which was observed 6 nautical miles to the NW (325°) from the flight level center

[CronkPSU]

center looking better on the IR though there seems to be a dry pocket to its east it will still have to spit out

[ConvergenceZone]

Weird! I went to http://www.newyorktimes.com
and there's nothing about hurricane Irene on the front page..... Really?????

[artist]

000
URNT15 KNHC 250107
AF302 1709A IRENE HDOB 25 20110825
005800 2220N 07636W 6970 03100 9994 +097 +069 315031 032 /// /// 03
005830 2221N 07635W 6976 03091 9987 +096 +067 318032 033 028 002 00
005900 2222N 07634W 6967 03098 9987 +095 +070 317031 031 030 004 00
005930 2224N 07633W 6969 03094 9994 +088 +075 315032 032 030 005 00
010000 2225N 07632W 6968 03094 9989 +091 +076 316032 033 031 003 00
010030 2226N 07630W 6966 03097 9988 +091 +075 317034 036 030 001 00
010100 2227N 07629W 6969 03092 9986 +090 +077 315035 035 029 001 00
010130 2229N 07628W 6968 03091 9981 +093 +072 314036 036 031 000 00
010200 2230N 07626W 6967 03087 9981 +091 +067 317038 039 031 001 00
010230 2231N 07625W 6966 03090 9976 +095 +067 316039 039 032 000 00
010300 2232N 07624W 6970 03082 9973 +095 +067 317038 039 033 000 00
010330 2234N 07622W 6967 03083 9971 +095 +074 318040 041 032 000 00
010400 2235N 07621W 6969 03078 9964 +099 +074 317042 043 033 001 00
010430 2236N 07620W 6970 03080 9967 +094 +073 316043 044 035 001 00
010500 2237N 07618W 6967 03077 9973 +085 +080 314044 045 038 001 00
010530 2239N 07617W 6967 03071 9978 +073 //// 311045 045 039 008 01
010600 2240N 07616W 6970 03064 //// +065 //// 306045 047 041 014 01
010630 2241N 07614W 6973 03064 //// +069 //// 316047 050 045 011 01
010700 2242N 07613W 6964 03071 9953 +083 //// 325052 053 043 011 01
010730 2244N 07612W 6968 03058 //// +065 //// 324052 052 042 018 01
$$

[Dave]

And a correction to VDM 7

000
URNT12 KNHC 250021 CCA
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE AL092011
A. 24/23:50:00Z
B. 23 deg 27 min N
075 deg 02 min W
C. 700 mb 2684 m
D. 71 kt
E. 133 deg 52 nm
F. 212 deg 87 kt
G. 133 deg 47 nm
H. 953 mb
I. 7 C / 3047 m
J. 16 C / 3055 m
K. 11 C / NA
L. OPEN ENE-SSW
M. CO14-64
N. 12345 / 7
O. 0.02 / 2 nm
P. AF302 1709A IRENE OB 07 CCA
MAX FL WIND 87 KT SE QUAD 23:33:40Z
MAX OUTBOUND FL WIND 99 KT NW QUAD 00:03:40Z
MAX FL TEMP 15 C 325 / 6 NM FROM FL CNTR
;

[jpigott]

Buoy pressure rising NE Bahamas: http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=41047

Odd. Shouldn't it be falling with Irene heading its way?

[CronkPSU]

Buoy pressure rising NE Bahamas: http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=41047

Odd. Shouldn't it be falling with Irene heading its way?

whew, glad I wasn't the only one scratching my head about that...that makes no sense!

[Dave]

[jpigott]

Buoy pressure rising NE Bahamas: http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=41047

Odd. Shouldn't it be falling with Irene heading its way?

whew, glad I wasn't the only one scratching my head about that...that makes no sense!

And it appears buoy pressures are falling in Freeport and Ft. Lauderdale???

[TheShrimper]

Buoy pressure rising NE Bahamas: http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=41047

Odd. Shouldn't it be falling with Irene heading its way?

whew, glad I wasn't the only one scratching my head about that...that makes no sense!

That bouy isn't even close to the storm. It's well NE of the Bahamas. Some post not knowing references. Calm down.

[cpdaman]

Buoy pressure rising NE Bahamas: http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=41047

Odd. Shouldn't it be falling with Irene heading its way?

whew, glad I wasn't the only one scratching my head about that...that makes no sense!

nah that bouy is actually pretty far removed from the storm and the storm is pretty much moving nw ala parralleing away from the bouy

and if you look at past obs it has been yo yoing up and down....at first glance yes odd...but zoom out and see that bouy is out there several hundred miles away

[jpigott]

nah that bouy is actually pretty far removed from the storm and the storm is pretty much moving nw ala parralleing away from the bouy

and if you look at past obs it has been yo yoing up and down....at first glance yes odd...but zoom out and see that bouy is out there several hundred miles away[/quote]


gotcha . . . thanks

I just assumed (that was my problem) that it was a buoy close to the Abacos

[artist]

000
URNT15 KNHC 250117
AF302 1709A IRENE HDOB 26 20110825
010800 2245N 07611W 6973 03052 //// +062 //// 322046 050 042 015 01
010830 2246N 07609W 6974 03053 //// +068 //// 327044 045 045 012 01
010900 2247N 07608W 6964 03060 9947 +086 //// 320042 043 040 006 01
010930 2248N 07607W 6970 03051 9938 +087 //// 321043 045 037 004 01
011000 2250N 07605W 6965 03056 9932 +094 //// 321046 048 037 005 01
011030 2251N 07604W 6968 03044 9925 +097 +092 321048 049 033 001 00
011100 2252N 07603W 6968 03043 9925 +090 //// 317048 049 035 001 01
011130 2253N 07601W 6968 03039 9925 +088 //// 313048 050 036 001 01
011200 2254N 07600W 6965 03039 9919 +092 //// 311046 047 037 001 01
011230 2256N 07559W 6967 03031 9912 +094 //// 309048 050 039 001 01
011300 2257N 07557W 6970 03025 9904 +098 +097 311051 052 040 001 00
011330 2258N 07556W 6966 03025 9898 +097 //// 311050 051 043 003 01
011400 2259N 07555W 6969 03021 9901 +086 //// 311053 055 045 009 01
011430 2301N 07553W 6980 02997 //// +070 //// 305051 052 048 016 01
011500 2302N 07552W 6963 03014 //// +079 //// 315050 052 054 009 01
011530 2303N 07551W 6966 03000 //// +072 //// 313048 050 051 008 01
011600 2304N 07549W 6973 02989 //// +070 //// 318056 060 054 021 01
011630 2306N 07548W 6957 03002 9868 +078 //// 319058 060 057 012 05
011700 2307N 07547W 6973 02978 9855 +097 +086 319063 064 050 004 00
011730 2308N 07546W 6969 02977 9843 +102 +084 320068 072 046 004 00
$$

[CronkPSU]

can we ask then if the high pressure system is hanging in there if that buoy out well away from the storm is rising? or the two aren't related at all?

[Stephanie]

"From the looks of that steering flow, it looks to me that it could just as easily go west. Just my non-pro opinion of course. I sure hope they are correct though in that it heads more east and further out to sea."

I have been seeing the same thing. That is why I asked earlier if there is any possibility that this storm will pull a HUGO and end up here in Charleston. Everyone else seem to agree with the computers that I am still not full faith with.

We'll never be 100%. Noone can let their guard down. However, the fact that the models are almost all moving in unison from one model run to the next and tightly clustered tells me that there's fewer questions with this one than others. It's still early. I think tomorrow is D-day.

[bamajammer4eva]

Weird! I went to http://www.newyorktimes.com
and there's nothing about hurricane Irene on the front page..... Really?????

Are you kidding?! Steve Jobs stepped down! That's way more important and newsworthy than some hurricane

[Battlebrick]

everyone should look at the visible.. stunning display of a EWRC taking place.

[Dave]

[cpdaman]

can we ask then if the high pressure system is hanging in there if that buoy out well away from the storm is rising? or the two aren't related at all?

have you looked at the last 12 hours at the bouy

it is 29.93 now it was 29.98 several hours ago...

it has been bouncin up and down

don't think that is a good representation of the ridge heights at steering flow level ..higher up...but the wobbles are fun to watch tonite......by the weekend they will be much more serious

[janswizard]

Steve Weagle, chief weatherman out of West Palm just tweeted the following:

Steve_Weagle Steve Weagle
Bahamas radio continues to report severe structural damage in Acklins Bahamas.
7 minutes ago Favorite Retweet Reply