WPAC: ROKE - Post-Tropical (18W)

[StormingB81]

[StormingB81]

Kadena weather now calling for winds 58-75 mph on Friday afternoon...now it still doesnt look to good but looks like it is improving a little bit but with a slow mover and if it picks up a little bit more this maybe ine to worry about as far as rain..We Just saw what Talas did how slow moving and large that one was...not saying that thats how this is but a slow moving large storm is never good rain wise..

[StormingB81]

Wow..new warning from JTWC is out..now the CPA to Kadena is 0 NM....

[StormingB81]

The text still isnt updated yet

[StormingB81]

WTPN31 PGTW 122100
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 18W (EIGHTEEN) WARNING NR 006
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
121800Z --- NEAR 21.7N 135.1E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 270 DEGREES AT 02 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
REPEAT POSIT: 21.7N 135.1E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
130600Z --- 22.0N 134.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
131800Z --- 22.5N 133.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
140600Z --- 23.1N 132.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 155 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
135 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
135 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
155 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 310 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
141800Z --- 23.8N 131.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
160 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 310 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
151800Z --- 25.3N 129.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 170 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
145 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
145 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
170 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 320 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
161800Z --- 26.8N 127.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 330 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
171800Z --- 28.9N 126.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
REMARKS:
122100Z POSITION NEAR 21.8N 134.9E.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION (TD) 18W, LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 470 NM EAST-
SOUTHEAST OF KADENA AIR BASE, OKINAWA, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 02
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY
(IR) DEPICTS FLARING DEEP CONVECTION OVER THE ELONGATED LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH A LARGE SPIRAL BAND TO THE SOUTH AND
EAST. A PARTIAL 121526Z 85 GHZ TRMM IMAGE ALSO SHOWS THE ILL-
DEFINED, ELONGATED LLCC. THE INITIAL POSITION HAS BEEN SLIGHTLY
ADJUSTED FARTHER TO THE NORTH BASED ON THE ABOVEMENTIONED TRMM IMAGE
AND ANIMATED IR. POSITION CONFIDENCE IS LOW DUE TO THE BROAD NATURE
OF THE SYSTEM. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS BASED ON DVORAK ESTIMATES OF
30 KNOTS FROM BOTH PGTW AND RJTD. A 121249Z ASCAT PASS CONFIRMS THE
STRONGEST WINDS ARE ALONG THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY DUE TO THE MONSOON
DEPRESSION CHARACTERISTICS OF THIS SYSTEM AND PRESSURE GRADIENT
INDUCED WINDS FROM THE INTERACTION WITH A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO
THE NORTH. TD 18W IS CURRENTLY IN A WEAK (5-10 KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR ENVIRONMENT AS IT LIES JUST BENEATH THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AXIS
AND SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES REMAIN HIGH AT 29 DEGREES CELSIUS.
ANIMATED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS THAT THERE IS GOOD OUTFLOW TO THE
EAST INTO A TROPICAL UPPER TROPOSPHERIC TROUGH (TUTT) CELL AND
EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW REMAINS GOOD. HOWEVER, ANOTHER TUTT CELL IS
INHIBITING OUTFLOW AND CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT ON THE NORTHWESTERN
PERIPHERY. RECENT 500MB AND 700MB UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS SHOWS THAT
THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE FIRMLY ENTRENCHED ACROSS THE BONIN ISLANDS AND
NORTHERN RYUKYUS IS ACTING TO PREVENT POLEWARD MOVEMENT FOR THE
SYSTEM. TD 18W SHOULD BE SLOW TO CONSOLIDATE AND INTENSIFY. LATEST
MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS SPREAD WITH NOGAPS AND WBAR AS THE OUTLIERS
TO THE RIGHT. THE ECMWF SOLUTION ALSO PORTRAYS AN UNLIKELY POLEWARD
TRACK IN THE NEAR TERM. THIS FORECAST IS MORE IN LINE WITH THE EGRR
FORECAST, WHICH DEPICTS A WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TRACK. THEREFORE, THIS
FORECAST CONTINUES TO LIE TO THE LEFT OF CONSENSUS. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 121800Z IS 13 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
130300Z, 130900Z, 131500Z AND 132100Z.//
NNNN

[StormingB81]

http://hurricane.methaz.org/tracking/cy ... tracks.png

They all want Okinawa..

[phwxenthusiast]

the 15z JTWC prognostic gives a very good and informative discussion on the future track of 18W... it basically depends on that trough which is now approaching China based on WV Loop...

models are initializing well with the elongated nature of 18W as well as on the strength of the ridge... the differences are with the timing with the CMC and NOGAPS having the fastest and the deepest trough among the suite...

imho, i think we may see a somewhat poleward turn by Thursday before moving near Okinawa... after that, another uncertainty occurs with the placement of the ridge--some showing a strong one building in E. China that would push 18W south into Taiwan...

interesting times ahead...

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the JMA and JTWC products.

[RobWESTPACWX]

Anyone see this, JMA pulled the storm back toward the East on there last warning.

[RobWESTPACWX]

Just like Kulap, the center of this storm is completely and utterly exposed.

[StormingB81]

Kadena Weather calling for 60-75 mph winds 3pm Friday to 12am sat morning with 9-12 inches of rain and expect TCCORs to start this evening..

[StormingB81]

Shear in the aread seems to be decreasoing while there is still some moderate shear of 20s still around overall it is starting to decrease..maybe this is what the ywere seeing in the forecast..something to look out for..

[StormingB81]

[quote="RobWESTPACWX"]Anyone see this, JMA pulled the storm back toward the East on there last warning.quote]


If the case it could be getting tight and if a new center to the east that big blob maybe the storm..I dont know..it looks liek a nice circle though to the east of it..

[StormingB81]

nevermind i see the center of circulation now however like I said shear seems to be dropping a bit something to watch for...

[RobWESTPACWX]

I'm not biting it at this time, I don't think it is going to get near the intensity foretasted, this is the same layout as the last storm and we all know how that ended. I think this will max out a weak TS if that to be honest, the winds in Kadena, per the JTWC forecast yes that high. But that is defiantly worst case scenario.

[StormingB81]

If I dont see it come together by tomorrow afternoon IMO opinion it wont be much of anything...just like the last storm as Rob said...The shear is too up and down..unless it stays down all over and comes together..however I do want to point out that Talas started the same way

[Infdidoll]

I'm not biting it at this time, I don't think it is going to get near the intensity foretasted, this is the same layout as the last storm and we all know how that ended. I think this will max out a weak TS if that to be honest, the winds in Kadena, per the JTWC forecast yes that high. But that is defiantly worst case scenario.

Agreed. Right now, conditions near Okinawa would be hostile to this storm and I don't know if they are going to improve THAT much in terms of wind shear in the span of a few days. We'll probably be hit with a weak tropical storm if it interacts much with conditions from the system that just passed through here. As for where it will go - If this would happen to intensify, which it doesn't look like conditions really support, the streamline analysis charts show this as becoming more of a threat to northern Taiwan as the ridge extending from China pushes it south temporarily. Looks like JTWC is taking the stance that it will bank to the north (possibly inluenced by another area of low pressure traversing north of Beijing or JTWC doesn't think the ridge will play a factor at all?). Not a real significant threat here in Oki because we get tropical storm force winds very often in the winter not even associated with a tropical cyclone, but normal westerlies. TS winds are still business as usual here, unfortunately. I say "unfortunately" because it's no fun driving your kid to school in high wind and rain, but I've done it during past tropical storms! Now if this storm would hang around long enough for shear to settle down and conditions to stabilize, we could see it turn into something after it passes Okinawa. The track beyond Okinawa still seems like a headscratcher to me.

Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[StormingB81]

I wonder what James thoughts are?

[StormingB81]

ECMWF backed off a little on the models..Starting to believe more and more it will be weak when it gets here and just a rain maker...

Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[phwxenthusiast]

it seems to me the LLCC wants to tuck itself into the main convective activity... i'm not really sure but i've seen that a few times now with weak systems trying to align themselves into the area of heaviest convection... we could probably see a slight intensification tonight...

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the JTWC and JMA products.

[RobWESTPACWX]