ATL: MARIA - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[gatorcane]

At look at the 500MB layer, GFS at 96 hours:

[cycloneye]

At 102 hours,low pressure near Guadeloupe/Dominica.



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[gatorcane]

Will they run the 12Z GFDL and HWRF?

I am not sure why the global models are not developing this system more than they are, conditions look conducive for development across the MDR.

I am curious what the hurricane models do with it.

[northjaxpro]

But what are the models seeing to not develop this much?I mean,a number of waves they had developing early and it didn't happen,so why aren't they developing this wave sooner?

GFS is on board now. The latest 12z GFS run going out 72 hours initializes this system moving west in the East ATL.

[cycloneye]

At 120 hours,low pressure is just SE of PR.



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[rainstorm]

At 102 hours,low pressure near Guadeloupe/Dominica.



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at least it shows something though i would like to see more robust development considering we are at the peak of the season. perhaps its moving too fast and feeling easterly shear?

[gatorcane]

Just north of Puerto Rico at 12Z GFS 132 hours with a building Bermuda High ridge to the north and a mammoth cutoff low over the East-Central United States. Jet stream is well to the north though across Canada.

[cycloneye]

rainstorm,in this 12z run,GFS holds all the way the low into the Caribbean different from the 00z one that had nothing.

[gatorcane]

Oh boy, Bermuda High is really building in now (the center of the High is nearly right over Bermuda) --- 95L starting to deepen some as it moves W to WNW. What is that cutoff low going to do across the East-Central United States?

[rainstorm]

rainstorm,in this 12z run,GFS holds all the way the low into the Caribbean different from the 00z one that had nothing.

it is an improvement.

[Vortex]

starting to intensify H144 just N or DR...

[rainstorm]

Oh boy, Bermuda High is really building in now --- 95L starting to deepen some as it moves W to WNW. What is that cutoff low going to do across the East-Central United States?

remote linking disabled

[rainstorm]

can anyone see these links?

[gatorcane]

Hey peeps, how is that for some good Bermuda High ridging --- I will fix the links above.

[Vortex]

H156 intensifying in the SE bahamas moving w/wnw...

[cycloneye]

144 hours. Gatorcane,you have to post a better link as they dont show up.



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[Vortex]

strongest run thus far by the GFS...Pattern favoring a US threat..

[rainstorm]

Hey peeps, how is that for some good Bermuda High ridging --- I will fix the links above.

http://img831.imageshack.us/img831/1264 ... ltropz.gif

has some potential to be an east coast runner.

[gatorcane]

I fixed the links...

May have Florida written all over it at 162 hours, just depends how long that ridging holds.

This would be a classic September Cape Verde threat from the East for Bahamas and Florida:

[northjaxpro]

My goodness, that pattern set-up does not bode well for FL or EGOM, or even the East U.S. Coast. I hate to look that long term with these model runs, but, you can't help but notice that set up looking at the 144 hr run above, should it come close to verifying.