WPAC: MUIFA (Kabayan) - Tropical Depression

[KWT]

Looks very wet there Hurakan, do you have any sort of figures regarding how much rain they've actually had?

[HURAKAN]

Looks very wet there Hurakan, do you have any sort of figures regarding how much rain they've actually had?

Not right now but we should know when they release the Daily Climate Report (CLI) for today

[supercane]

Looking at latest METAR reports, closing in on an inch over just the last hour with 0.96" at Guam Int'l (PGUM) and 0.81" at Andersen AFB (PGUA):
PGUM 271554Z 10023G33KT 1/4SM +RA FG OVC023 24/24 A2980 RMK AO2 PK WND 11033/1549 SLP084 P0096 T02440239
PGUA 271555Z 14023G30KT 2 1/2SM R06R/3000V3500FT RA BKN002 OVC023 24/M03 A2980 RMK AO2A PK WND 13030/1554 SLP074 P0081 T02401031 VISNO RWY24L $
Because of heavy rain:
SHORT TERM FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU
1122 PM CHST WED JUL 27 2011

GUZ001>004-271700-
GUAM-ROTA-TINIAN-SAIPAN-
1122 PM CHST WED JUL 27 2011

.NOW...
A LARGE LINE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE THROUGH THE
MARIANAS BETWEEN MIDNIGHT AND 3 AM. EXPECT FREQUENT LIGHTNING...
ONE TO TWO INCHES OF TORRENTIAL RAIN...REDUCED VISIBILITIES...
SLICK ROADS AND PONDING ON ROADWAYS AND POOR DRAINAGE AREAS. IN
ADDITION...WINDS WILL GUST UP TO 35 MPH AS THE SHOWERS PASS
THROUGH.

$$

[KWT]

Thank you very much supercane, looks like there is plenty more to come as well with this system before it finally eases off.

[supercane]

Discussion of the rain in Guam should probably be moved to the 95W thread, as it is the source of the rain, not TD 11W, which is about 400 miles WSW of Guam.

[StormingB81]

totally different Euro this morning then last night..doesnt come near the Ryukus

[KWT]

Yep 12z ECM is different, much weaker run which is probably what has made at least some difference this run.

[StormingB81]

Hoever I see tracks from recurving it out to it coming west then commight straight up to okinawa...just going to see how strong this thing gets to see what movement it takes

[supercane]

WTPQ21 RJTD 272100
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TD
ANALYSIS
PSTN 272100UTC 12.3N 138.0E POOR
MOVE WNW 14KT
PRES 1004HPA
MXWD 030KT
GUST 045KT
FORECAST
24HF 282100UTC 14.4N 135.9E 120NM 70%
MOVE NW 07KT
PRES 998HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT =

WTPN32 PGTW 272100
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 11W (ELEVEN) WARNING NR 010
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
271800Z --- NEAR 12.5N 138.3E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 305 DEGREES AT 16 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
REPEAT POSIT: 12.5N 138.3E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
280600Z --- 13.7N 137.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 320 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
281800Z --- 14.8N 136.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 330 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
290600Z --- 15.9N 135.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 345 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
291800Z --- 17.0N 135.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 005 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
301800Z --- 19.4N 135.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 025 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY
NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY.
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
311800Z --- 22.2N 136.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 010 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
011800Z --- 26.3N 137.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
REMARKS:
272100Z POSITION NEAR 12.8N 138.0E.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION (TD) 11W (ELEVEN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 375 NM
WEST OF ANDERSEN AFB, GUAM, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 14 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS
AN EXPOSED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH CONVECTION
DISPLACED TO THE SOUTHWEST. A 27/1638Z AMSU-B 89 GHZ MICROWAVE
SATELLITE IMAGE ALSO INDICATES A WELL-DEFINED LLCC WITH A FRAGMENTED
BAND OF WEAK CONVECTION WELL TO THE SOUTHWEST. THE INITIAL POSITION
IS BASED ON THE ABOVEMENTIONED IMAGERY WITH GOOD CONFIDENCE. INITIAL
INTENSITY IS BASED ON PGTW, KNES, AND RJTD DVORAK INTENSITY
ESTIMATES RANGING FROM 25 TO 40 KNOTS. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS
INDICATES TD 11W IS LOCATED SOUTH OF AN UPPER LEVEL CYCLONE IN A
REGION OF MODERATE (20-30 KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS). ANIMATED
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS SUBSIDENCE TO THE NORTHEAST OF TD 11W,
WHICH IS CURRENTLY SUPPRESSING CONVECTION. TD 11W IS CURRENTLY
TRACKING ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A LOW TO MID-LEVEL NEAR
EQUATORIAL STEERING RIDGE, AND THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO TRACK
NORTHWESTWARD DURING THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS. AFTER TAU 36, THE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE NORTH IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN AND
RETREAT WESTWARD AS A RETROGRADING MID-LATITUDE LOW AND ASSOCIATED
DEEP TROUGH EXTEND SOUTHWESTWARD FROM THE KAMCHATKA PENINSULA. TD
11W WILL THEN TAKE A NORTHERLY TRACK THROUGH TAU 72 BEFORE A STRONG
STEERING RIDGE TO THE EAST BUILDS AND BEGINS TO NUDGE 11W TO THE
WEST. INTENSITY IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY INCREASE AS THE SYSTEM
APPROACHES AN UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE TO THE NORTH, VWS DECREASES,
AND OUTFLOW INCREASES. AFTER TAU 96, UNCERTAINTY IS HIGH AS
NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN DISAGREEMENT WITH STRENGTH AND
PLACEMENT OF THE STR BUILDING TO THE EAST. LOCATIONS IN JAPAN SHOULD
CLOSELY MONITOR FORECAST CHANGES AFTER TAU 120 AS TD 11W POTENTIALLY
TAKES A MORE WESTWARD TRACK. MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN POOR AGREEMENT,
HOWEVER THIS FORECAST IS CLOSE TO THE MODEL CONSENSUS AND IS
CONSISTENT WITH THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE
HEIGHT AT 271800Z IS 13 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 280300Z, 280900Z,
281500Z AND 282100Z. REFER TO TROPICAL STORM 10W (NOCK-TEN) WARNINGS
(WTPN31 PGTW)FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//
NNNN

TXPQ29 KNES 272110
TCSWNP
A. 11W (NONAME)
B. 27/2032Z
C. 12.3N
D. 137.4E
E. THREE/MTSAT
F. T2.0/2.0/D1.0/06HRS
G. IR/EIR/SWIR/AMSRE
H. REMARKS... LESS THAN .5 DEGREE SHEAR YIELDS UNREPRESENTATIVE DT=3.0.
MET AND PT=2.0. FT IS BASED ON MET.
I. ADDL POSITIONS
27/1649Z 12.3N 138.4E AMSRE
...SALEMI

[StormingB81]

Is that 11w and 95W becoming one storm?

[KWT]

Looks like they are interacting doesn't it?

Big burst of convection with our TD that probably tips the odds in its favour.

[StormingB81]

So all that rest on the track is how much this storm strengthens?

[rdhdstpchld]

So all that rest on the track is how much this storm strengthens?

Yeah, and considering I should have brought my rubber duckie and loofah sponge to the beach yesterday, them's some WARM surface temps!!!

[StormingB81]

alot of flare up the last couple of hours

[rdhdstpchld]

Ok, so this is an incredibly under-educated follower here (I'm trying to learn, promise!) but the two of these flares -- what are the thoughts on them coming together and becoming bigger/stronger because of it as opposed to tearing eachother down? And if they were to come together, would that significantly change the forecast track? Would it pull more westward b/c of the disturbance to the west?

[supercane]

Overall improved organization, with JMA noting position estimate as "fair" instead of poor and latest JTWC satellite bulletin with a Dvorak estimate of 2.5/35kt:

WTPQ21 RJTD 280000
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TD
ANALYSIS
PSTN 280000UTC 12.2N 136.5E FAIR
MOVE W 15KT
PRES 1002HPA
MXWD 030KT
GUST 045KT
FORECAST
24HF 290000UTC 14.6N 135.2E 120NM 70%
MOVE NNW 07KT
PRES 998HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT =

TPPN11 PGTW 280028
A. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 11W (N OF YAP)
B. 27/2332Z
C. 12.4N
D. 136.8E
E. FIVE/MTSAT
F. T2.5/2.5/D1.0/24HRS STT: D1.0/06HRS
G. IR/EIR/VIS/MSI
H. REMARKS: 40A/PBO SBC/ANMTN. .60 WRAP ON LOG10 SPIRAL YIELDED
A 3.0 DT. FLARING CNVCTN DUE TO NOCTURNAL MAX IS CAUSING A HIGH
DT. MET AND PT INDICATE 2.5. DBO MET DUE TO FLARING CNVCTN.
I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS:
27/2033Z 12.5N 137.4E SSMS
QUAST

[StormingB81]

I am going to say here soon we will probably have an upgrade to tropical storm status...

[StormingB81]

JTWC Upgrades to Tropical Storm:

WTPN32 PGTW 280300
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 11W (ELEVEN) WARNING NR 011
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
280000Z --- NEAR 13.0N 136.9E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 290 DEGREES AT 15 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
REPEAT POSIT: 13.0N 136.9E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
281200Z --- 14.1N 135.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 325 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
290000Z --- 15.2N 134.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 335 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
291200Z --- 16.3N 134.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 355 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
300000Z --- 17.5N 134.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 015 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
310000Z --- 19.7N 134.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 020 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY
NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY.
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
010000Z --- 22.4N 135.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 010 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
020000Z --- 25.3N 136.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
REMARKS:
280300Z POSITION NEAR 13.3N 136.6E.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION (TD) 11W (ELEVEN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
455 NM WEST OF ANDERSEN AFB, GUAM, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT
14 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT
280000Z IS 13 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 280900Z, 281500Z, 282100Z AND
290300Z. REFER TO TROPICAL STORM 10W (NOCK-TEN) WARNINGS (WTPN31
PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//
NNNN

[euro6208]

very wet day here on guam. it began raining since 3 am and didnt stop until around 11 am. very gusty winds occuring in heavy showers. i was shocked to see the guam radar at around 6 to see all the heavy convection over us

[euro6208]

euro now showing a southern japan landfall