EPAC: DORA - Remnants

[Yellow Evan]

Anther good analog for 4-E/Dora is Fausto 08 track wise. Intensity wise, a good anolog is Bud 06.

[Yellow Evan]

How strong will this get I wonder? Could this go all the way to Category 5?

NHC says 2%, which is about as bullish as they ever are this far out. It's going to be an impressive one!

I'd go with 15-20% at this time IMO.

[cycloneye]

Breaking News=Is now Tropical Storm Dora!

TROPICAL STORM DORA TROPICAL CYCLONE UPDATE
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP042011
1100 AM PDT MON JUL 18 2011

...DEPRESSION REACHES TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH...

SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOUR-E
HAS STRENGTHENED AND IS NOW TROPICAL STORM DORA.

SUMMARY OF 1100 AM PDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
--------------------------------------------------
LOCATION...10.6N 92.3W
ABOUT 400 MI...645 KM SSE OF SALINA CRUZ MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES

$$
FORECASTER STEWART

[Yellow Evan]

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

I am forecasting Dora to intensify quite a bit now, with my new forecast shows an 115 knt peak. After three days, it will rapidly weaken as it turns west. My new forecast is further southwestern than my first one and somewhat similar to Howard 04 except a little more southwesterly.

[cycloneye]

18z Best Track

EP, 04, 2011071818, , BEST, 0, 106N, 923W, 40, 1004, TS

ftp://ftp.tpc.ncep.noaa.gov/atcf/tcweb/ ... 011.invest

[Kingarabian]

Unless.... It goes annular. I remember Daniel of 06/Flossie of 07/Felicia of 09 lasted longer and got stronger than farcasted because of their annular characteristics. But they were far off in the epac...

[cycloneye]

SHIP goes up to 86kts.

Code: Select all

WHXX01 KMIA 181904
CHGE77
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1904 UTC MON JUL 18 2011
 
DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.
 
EAST PACIFIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR
 
TROPICAL CYCLONE DORA (EP042011) 20110718 1800 UTC
 
        ...00 HRS...   ...12 HRS...   ...24 HRS. ..   ...36 HRS...
        110718  1800   110719  0600   110719  1800   110720  0600
 
         LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON
BAMS    10.6N  92.3W   11.0N  94.9W   11.6N  97.6W   12.6N  99.8W
BAMD    10.6N  92.3W   11.0N  94.4W   11.9N  96.5W   13.1N  98.6W
BAMM    10.6N  92.3W   11.3N  95.0W   12.2N  97.8W   13.5N 100.4W
LBAR    10.6N  92.3W   11.3N  94.7W   12.3N  97.6W   13.8N 100.5W
SHIP        40KTS          46KTS          53KTS          64KTS
DSHP        40KTS          46KTS          53KTS          64KTS
 
        ...48 HRS...   ...72 HRS...   ...96 HRS. ..   ..120 HRS...
        110720  1800   110721  1800   110722  1800   110723  1800
 
         LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON
BAMS    14.0N 102.0W   17.3N 106.3W   20.4N 110.3W   22.3N 114.9W
BAMD    14.5N 100.8W   17.5N 104.4W   20.1N 107.1W   22.3N 110.6W
BAMM    14.9N 103.0W   17.7N 107.5W   19.8N 111.0W   21.0N 114.9W
LBAR    15.1N 103.3W   17.7N 107.8W   19.3N 111.0W   19.9N 114.3W
SHIP        77KTS          86KTS          81KTS          64KTS
DSHP        77KTS          86KTS          81KTS          64KTS
 
         ...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR =  10.6N LONCUR =  92.3W DIRCUR = 280DEG SPDCUR =  11KT
LATM12 =  10.3N LONM12 =  90.0W DIRM12 = 281DEG SPDM12 =  11KT
LATM24 =  10.0N LONM24 =  88.0W
WNDCUR =   40KT RMAXWD =   30NM WNDM12 =   30KT
CENPRS = 1004MB OUTPRS = 1010MB OUTRAD =  180NM SDEPTH =   D
RD34NE =   50NM RD34SE =   60NM RD34SW =    0NM RD34NW =   0NM
 


[Yellow Evan]

Unless.... It goes annular. I remember Daniel of 06/Flossie of 07/Felicia of 09 lasted longer and got stronger than farcasted because of their annular characteristics. But they were far off in the epac...

Flossie 07 was not annular but Celia 10 and Adrian 11 were annular.

[cycloneye]

TROPICAL STORM DORA DISCUSSION NUMBER 2
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP042011
200 PM PDT MON JUL 18 2011

DORA HAS CONTINUED TO STRENGTHEN DESPITE MODEST NORTHERLY
UPPER-LEVEL WINDS AND THE RAGGED APPEARANCE OF THE LARGE CURVED
BAND THAT NOW WRAPS ALMOST THREE QUARTERS OF THE WAY AROUND THE
CENTER. SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM TAFB AND SAB ARE T2.5/35
KT AND T2.0/30 KT...RESPECTIVELY...AND UW-CIMSS ADT ESTIMATES ARE
T2.5/35 KT. HOWEVER...AN ASCAT OVERPASS AT 1610Z INDICATED A COUPLE
OF 40-KT WIND VECTORS WITHIN A LARGE FIELD OF 34-KT WINDS...SO THE
INITIAL INTENSITY IS SET AT 40 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY.

THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 280/12. DORA HAS BEEN WOBBLING ABOUT
THIS MEAN MOTION AS SMALLER CIRCULATIONS HAVE BEEN ROTATING AROUND
THE MEAN CENTER. HOWEVER...THE GENERAL TREND SHOULD BE FOR THE
CYCLONE TO CONTINUE MOVING IN A WEST-NORTHWESTWARD DIRECTION
THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD AS DORA IS STEERED BY THE LARGE AND
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM TO THE NORTH. BY 72-96 HOURS...THE
WESTERN PORTION OF THE EXTENSIVE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE IS FORECAST TO
WEAKEN...WHICH SHOULD RESULT IN A DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED.
HOWEVER...THE RIDGE IS NOT EXPECTED TO COMPLETELY ERODE LIKE THE
GFDL AND HWRF MODELS ARE FORECASTING. AS A RESULT...THE CENTER OF
DORA IS FORECAST TO REMAIN WELL SOUTH OF MAINLAND MEXICO. THE
OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK IS JUST AN EXTENSION OF THE PREVIOUS
ADVISORY AND IS CLOSE TO THE DYNAMICAL MODEL CONSENSUS...TVCN.

CONVENTIONAL AND MICROWAVE SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATE THE INNER CORE
WIND FIELD HAS BECOME BETTER DEFINED AS THE LAST OF MULTIPLE
SMALLER CIRCULATIONS HAS MERGED INTO THE MAIN LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION
CENTER. GIVEN THAT THE VERTICAL SHEAR IS FORECAST TO DECREASE OVER
THE NEXT 24-36 HOURS AS DORA PASSES OVER PROGRESSIVELY WARMER
WATER...A PERIOD OF RAPID INTENSIFICATION IS EXPECTED FOR AT LEAST
THE NEXT 24 HOURS. CONTINUED STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST THROUGH
72-84 HOURS...AFTER WHICH RAPID WEAKENING IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN AS
THE CYCLONE MOVES OVER MUCH COOLER WATER WEST OF 110W LONGITUDE.
THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY
AND REMAINS WELL ABOVE ALL OF THE AVAILABLE INTENSITY GUIDANCE.

WIND RADII ARE BASED ON THE 1610Z ASCAT OVERPASS.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 18/2100Z 10.7N 92.9W 40 KT 45 MPH
12H 19/0600Z 11.1N 94.8W 55 KT 65 MPH
24H 19/1800Z 11.9N 97.6W 70 KT 80 MPH
36H 20/0600Z 13.0N 100.3W 85 KT 100 MPH
48H 20/1800Z 14.3N 102.8W 95 KT 110 MPH
72H 21/1800Z 17.0N 107.4W 105 KT 120 MPH
96H 22/1800Z 18.7N 110.4W 90 KT 105 MPH
120H 23/1800Z 20.0N 113.0W 60 KT 70 MPH

$$
FORECASTER STEWART

[Yellow Evan]

000
WTPZ34 KNHC 182033
TCPEP4

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM DORA ADVISORY NUMBER 2
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP042011
200 PM PDT MON JUL 18 2011

...DORA STRENGTHENING WELL SOUTH OF GUATEMALA AND MEXICO...


SUMMARY OF 200 PM PDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...10.7N 92.9W
ABOUT 410 MI...660 KM SSE OF SALINA CRUZ MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB...29.65 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 200 PM PDT...2100 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM DORA WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 10.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 92.9 WEST. DORA IS
MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 14 MPH...22 KM/H...AND THIS GENERAL
MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 45 MPH...75 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48
HOURS...AND DORA COULD BECOME A HURRICANE BY TUESDAY NIGHT.

TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 70 MILES...110 KM
FROM THE CENTER.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1004 MB...29.65 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
NONE.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...800 PM PDT.

$$
FORECASTER STEWART

[Macrocane]

Just like Bret, Dora is not wasting any time and it has been organizing fairly quick, and by the way it has been raining in San Salvador this afternoon, Dora may not be directly responsible for this rains but it has enhanced the moisture flow from the Pacific ocean into the country.

[cycloneye]

Just like Bret, Dora is not wasting any time and it has been organizing fairly quick, and by the way it has been raining in San Salvador this afternoon, Dora may not be directly responsible for this rains but it has enhanced the moisture flow from the Pacific ocean into the country.

I am ahead of myself,but all looks like Dora will reach hurricane status and that event for the EPAC will be very interesting as the first 4 cyclones are hurricanes.

[HURAKAN]

Just like Bret, Dora is not wasting any time and it has been organizing fairly quick, and by the way it has been raining in San Salvador this afternoon, Dora may not be directly responsible for this rains but it has enhanced the moisture flow from the Pacific ocean into the country.

I am ahead of myself,but all looks like Dora will reach hurricane status and that event for the EPAC will be very interesting as the first 4 cyclones are hurricanes.

will be the 1st occurrence since it happened in 1971

[Fyzn94]

I looked at the satellite picture on Dora and it already looks impressive. I smell rapid deepening...

[Yellow Evan]

Any shot at cat 5?

[CrazyC83]

ASCAT usually has a low bias and that was 5 hours ago, so I would have gone 50 kt right now.

[cycloneye]

Is starting to have that monster look.

[KWT]

Almost certainly be a hurricane by 12hrs time given the way its wrapping up, going to be a very interesting system to watch, probably will be a major...and quite probably a 4/5.

[cycloneye]

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2205 UTC MON JUL 18 2011

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2100 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...
TROPICAL STORM DORA IS CENTERED NEAR 10.7N 92.9W AT 18/2100 UTC
OR 360 NM SSE OF SALINA CRUZ MEXICO MOVING W AT 12 KT. ESTIMATED
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1004 MB MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED
IS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT. NUMEROUS MODERATE AND SCATTERED
STRONG CONVECTION IS OCCURRING WITHIN 120 NM OF THE CENTER AND
DORA IS EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY OVER THE NEXT 3 TO 4 DAYS IN
FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS. SEE LATEST NHC FORECAST/
ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCPEP4/WTPZ24 KNHC FOR MORE
DETAILS.

[Rgv20]

All of the available intensity guidance cap off Dora as a Cat 1 hurricane but considering how the intensity models have underestimated the past three systems in the eastern Pacific is not surprising that the NHC went above the consensus. In my opinion Dora is going to make a run to Cat 4 status by 72 to 84 hours from now.