WPAC: MEARI [Falcon] - Remnants

[wxman57]

Anyone else's NRL messing up?

Yes. Links going to strange places or not working.

[supercane]

00Z JMA analysis:
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 1002 HPA AT 11N 133E WNW 10 KT.

Awaiting JTWC to reissue TCFA, as first one is about to expire (or less likely, to upgrade this to TD 7W, but as the above ASCAT shows convection not colocated with the center, so Dvorak classification unlikely to be high enough).

Storming, yes, NRL has been acting up for me as well. As for looking large, it does have good inflow, but some of the trailing convection may be related to divergence from the nearby ULL and not directly related to the circulation. West Pac systems can be very large, especially this early when it is just forming.

[StormingB81]

They just reissued the TCFA:

THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 10.8N 135.5E IS NOW
LOCATED NEAR 11.0N 132.6E, APPROXIMATELY 250 NM WEST-NORTHWEST OF
PALAU. RECENT ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS DEEP
CONVECTION IN A WIDE ARC LEADING INTO A BROAD LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION
CENTER (LLCC). CONVECTION ON THE WESTERN END OF THE ARC IS STARTING
TO WRAP AROUND THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE LLCC BUT IT DOES NOT
APPEAR TO HAVE FULLY CLOSED OFF AND WRAPPED INTO THE CENTER. A
202255Z SSMIS PASS SHOWS A SIMILAR DEPICTION WITH VERY LITTLE
CONVECTION OVER THE LLCC. A 210018Z ASCAT PASS SHOWS AN ELONGATED
CLOSED CIRCULATION WITH 15 TO 20KTS OF WINDS AROUND THE CENTER AND
MUCH STRONGER 20-25 KTS WINDS DISPLACED TO THE NORTH AND SOUTH OF
THE LLCC. ANIMATED WATER VAPOR SHOWS THAT THE SYSTEM HAS
CONSIDERABLE OUTFLOW TO THE SOUTHWEST AND INTO TWO TROPICAL UPPER
TROPOSPHERIC TROUGHS (TUTT) LOCATED TO THE NORTH AND TO THE
NORTHEAST. THE ENVIRONMENT IS EXTREMELY FAVORABLE, AND IT APPEARS
THAT THE LARGE SIZE OF THE SYSTEM IS CAUSING IT TO TAKE LONGER THAN
EXPECTED TO BECOME ORGANIZED. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE
ESTIMATED AT 18 TO 22 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED
TO BE NEAR 1004 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS HIGH

[RobWESTPACWX]

Anyone else's NRL messing up?

Yes. Links going to strange places or not working.

Yes the whole site is all jacked up today.

[StormingB81]

from JMA the pressure keeps dropping:

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 1002 HPA AT 11N 133E WNW 10 KT.

[ManilaTC]

Here is the NRLMRY error:

Software error:

Undefined subroutine &Tools::run_cmd_safely called at /users/webuser/tc_pages/lib/Tc_Archive.pm line 2938.
For help, please send mail to the webmaster (webmaster@nrlmry.navy.mil), giving this error message and the time and date of the error.

[ManilaTC]

Look at the size of this thing.

To my filipino compatriots, its like "Eat Bulaga" (A 33 year old noontime variety show, meaning "its a surprise!") in the sense that it personifies the first stanza of its theme song.

"Mula aparri hanggang jolo"
(From Aparri, Cagayan to Jolo, Sulu)

[RobWESTPACWX]

I guess its just stand by to standby on this one, I'm sure a warning will be out soon.

[drdavisjr]

Hi all, it's been a while since I've been on the site, but I have a question. Given the proximity between the two systems (Egay and 99w), does anyone see the storms interacting with each other and, if so, how would that effect the forecast of 99w?

[Infdidoll]

Mehh, guess I'm telling my husband to hold off installing that new satellite dish after that last storm destroyed our old one. We can go without TV another week! Very broad circulation. Wonder if this one is going to clip the Aparri area, too. Can't catch a break there, lately.

[Infdidoll]

Amusing HKO is picking this up, but ECM doesn't seem to be all that thrilled, yet.

[ManilaTC]

I guess you can add the PAGASA name on to the subject line now.

They have upgraded it now to a Tropical Depression.


Severe Weather Bulletin Number ONE
Tropical Cyclone Warning Alert: Tropical Depression "FALCON"
Issued at 11:00 a.m., Tuesday, 21 June 2011

The Low Pressure Area East of Visayas has developed into a Tropical Depression and was named "FALCON".
Location of Center(as of 10:00 a.m.): 670 km East of Borongan, Easter Samar
Coordinates: 11.7°N, 132.3°E
Strength: Maximum sustained winds of 55 kph near the center
Movement: West Northwest at 19 kph

Forecast Positions/Outlook:
Wednesday morning:
440 kms East of Virac, Catanduanes
Thursday morning:
420 km East Northeast of Casiguran, Aurora
Friday morning:
350 km East Basco, Batanes

No Public Storm Warning Signals Raised

TD "Falcon" and TD "Egay" are expected to bring occasional rains over the country becoming widespread over the western section of Luzon.

The public and the disaster coordinating councils concerned are advised to take appropriate actions and watch for the next bulletin to be issued at 11 PM today.

[StormingB81]

And they are on board to bring it up here this weekend too....if the yhave to hit us cant they hit on a weekday...lol

[phwxenthusiast]

RE: NRLMRY Site

yeah the site does seem to be having some problems for the past 3 days now.. try this site from FNMOC (shared by a use from another forum)... much better site imo, although the interface is a little bit different...

https://www.fnmoc.navy.mil/tcweb/cgi-bin/tc_home.cgi

[supercane]

Thanks for the link, phwxenthusiast. I bookmarked it.

Good catch, ClarkEligue. I expected PAGASA to pick it up soon.

JTWC satellite bulletin shows Dvorak classification up to T1.5/1.5. Still not tipping their hands on an upgrade, at least by bulletin title.
TPPN11 PGTW 210622
A. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 99W (NE OF MINDANAO)
B. 21/0532Z
C. 12.7N
D. 130.9E
E. FIVE/MTSAT
F. T1.5/1.5/D0.5/24HRS STT: D0.5/06HRS
G. IR/EIR/VIS/MSI
H. REMARKS: 40A/PBO SBC/ANMTN. .25 WRAP ON LOG10 SPIRAL YIELDED
A 1.5 DT. MET AND PT AGREE. DBO DT.
I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS: NONE
QUAST

[oaba09]

This system won't hit us directly but it's expected to bring rains over the weekend...

[senorpepr]

The Low Pressure Area East of Visayas has developed into a Tropical Depression and was named "FALCON".

Location of Center:
(as of 10:00 a.m.) 670 km East of Borongan, Easter Samar
Coordinates: 11.7°N, 132.3°E
Strength: Maximum sustained winds of 55 kph near the center
Movement: West Northwest at 19 kph

Forecast Positions/Outlook:
Wednesday morning:
440 kms East of Virac, Catanduanes
Thursday morning:
420 km East Northeast of Casiguran, Aurora
Friday morning:
350 km East Basco, Batanes


TD "Falcon" and TD "Egay" are expected to bring occasional rains over the country becoming widespread over the western section of Luzon.
The public and the disaster coordinating councils concerned are advised to take appropriate actions and watch for the next bulletin to be issued at 11 PM today.

[RobWESTPACWX]

This system is now just giving me a headache, by defination a Tropical Depression is a area in the tropics with a closed center of circulation and winds less than 34kts. I am right correct? Thus really would expect JMA to have announced this as a TD by now, a well glad Pagasa picked up on it, with this storm and Egay they have been doing a stellar job.

[StormingB81]

JMA is calling it a TD

[KWT]

Big ole system isn't it!

Probably will take a few days to wrap up but I do expect some decent development.