EPAC: BEATRIZ - Remnants

[cycloneye]

00z Best Track

EP, 02, 2011062000, , BEST, 0, 146N, 1017W, 40, 1001, TS

ftp://ftp.tpc.ncep.noaa.gov/atcf/tcweb/ ... 011.invest

[brunota2003]

EDIT: oops...forgot something important!

Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

Well, I am forced to make a choice without as much information as I would like (doesn't that seem typical?). Judging by the rapid organization in Beatriz, I believe a period of rapid intensification may be in store within the next 18 hours or so (meaning it will start within the next 18 hours). However, there are factors going against this system RI'ing, and any such RI I believe would only barely meet the criteria. I do not see Beatriz pulling an Adrian and becoming a Cat 4, but a strong Cat 1 or Cat 2 is not out of the question. Once the period of RI is over (assuming it occurs), I do not believe Beatriz will strengthen further.

RI is an increase of wind speed of 30 knots (35 mph) or greater in a 24 hour period.

Factors I see for RI:
*The system has been rapidly organizing since yesterday, and over the past few hours convection has been focusing on the center.
*Waters in the area are warm
*There is plenty of moisture to work with that the system is entraining (this goes both ways)

Factors against RI:
*Convection is pretty sparse at the moment (but I see signs of that changing, very soon)
*Land will influence the system and will help to limit any RI that occurs
*There is no where near the amount of moisture on the MIMIC-TPW to pull from, unlike as there was for Adrian...this will also limit the intensity of Beatriz ( http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... anim72.gif ) This is a 72 hour loop of the TPW (00 UTC 17 June to 23 UTC 19 June), you can see Beatriz pulling in most of the moisture, which has not completely recovered from Adrian ( http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... anim72.gif 00 UTC 7 June to 23 UTC 9 June for Adrian). Another thing to note is that Adrian was not as big as Beatriz, in terms of circulation, so Adrian did not need as much TPW.

I have not seen what I was looking for to make a call for RI, but products have not had very long to generate, and CIMSS is also having some computer issues. I believe there is an equal chance of a period of RI, but the window for it to occur is short (maybe 24 hours, at most, for it to start before land becomes too much of an issue).

The 18 hour prediction will start at 10 pm EDT (02 UTC), so by 4 pm EDT (20 UTC) tomorrow afternoon (18 hours), we will see if I hit it, or if I was horribly wrong...here's to being horribly wrong and Beatriz is still a weak TS!

[supercane]

SHIPS output from 00Z shows higher than climatological odds for rapid intensification. Not saying this will necessarily happen, though.

Code: Select all

   ** 2011 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP022011    BEATRIZ 06/20/11  00 UTC **
 
 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT):  10.0 Range:-20.0 to  35.0 Scaled/Wgted Val:  0.5/  1.1
 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) :  15.3 Range: 17.0 to   1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val:  0.1/  0.2
 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP :  10.5 Range: 35.4 to   2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val:  0.8/  1.1
 Heat content (KJ/cm2) :  49.4 Range:  0.0 to  67.0 Scaled/Wgted Val:  0.7/  0.7
 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT)   : 119.0 Range: 44.8 to 134.3 Scaled/Wgted Val:  0.8/  0.7
 D200 (10**7s-1)       : 127.6 Range:-10.0 to 129.0 Scaled/Wgted Val:  1.0/  0.8
 % area w/pixels <-30 C:  97.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val:  1.0/  0.4
 850-700 MB REL HUM (%):  73.8 Range: 64.0 to  88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val:  0.4/  0.0
 
 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold=    43% is   3.7 times the sample mean(11.7%)
 Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold=    32% is   4.0 times the sample mean( 7.9%)
 Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold=    28% is   5.0 times the sample mean( 5.4%)
 Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold=    28% is   8.7 times the sample mean( 3.9%)

[brunota2003]

I will say, I don't think it'll happen tonight...I think tonight will be spent generating convection and finishing the set up...then sometime tomorrow I believe it'll occur (probably sometime between 8 am EDT and 4 pm EDT is when it'll kick off). Then again, I could be entirely wrong and it never happens. I already don't like trying to forecast RI events I don't want to be wrong, but at the same time I do!

[cycloneye]

[TYNI]

I will say, I don't think it'll happen tonight...I think tonight will be spent generating convection and finishing the set up...then sometime tomorrow I believe it'll occur (probably sometime between 8 am EDT and 4 pm EDT is when it'll kick off). Then again, I could be entirely wrong and it never happens. I already don't like trying to forecast RI events I don't want to be wrong, but at the same time I do!

LOL - we know what you mean b! We're all learning through watching, and trying to forecast accurately, not wishcast, which is going on a hope and a prayer for no particular reason. It's gonna be close either way, both in terms of potential RI, and in terms of landfalling/affecting the coast.

[HURAKAN]

It's a large system, that may slow down intensification, but the rains it may produce I think will be the bigger story in mountainous Mexico

[brunota2003]

Yes, it is going to be a very close call in terms of landfall. I am not so sure about RI though, like I said, I didn't see one of the indicators that I was looking for that I'm studying, but CIMSS has been having issues today with the computers...so if RI does occur, hopefully I can go back and find what I was looking for later.

So far, it appears to be a reliable indicator...I'm hoping it holds true, and I would like to move from finding the indicator post-storm to actually trying to predict RI before it occurs...that is, if I'm not out in the field 24/7 this season

[cycloneye]

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM BEATRIZ ADVISORY NUMBER 3
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP022011
800 PM PDT SUN JUN 19 2011

...BEATRIZ GRADUALLY STRENGTHENING...


SUMMARY OF 800 PM PDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...14.9N 102.1W
ABOUT 195 MI...315 KM S OF ZIHUATANEJO MEXICO
ABOUT 320 MI...510 KM SSE OF MANZANILLO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 305 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1001 MB...29.56 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE COAST OF MEXICO FROM ZIHUATANEJO WESTWARD TO MANZANILLO

A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE COAST OF MEXICO FROM WEST OF MANZANILLO WESTWARD TO LA FORTUNA

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE COAST OF MEXICO FROM TECPAN DE GALEANA WESTWARD TO EAST OF
ZIHUATANEJO

PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO
COMPLETION WITHIN THE HURRICANE WARNING AREA.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 800 PM PDT...0300 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM BEATRIZ WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 14.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 102.1 WEST. BEATRIZ IS
MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 12 MPH...19 KM/H...AND THIS GENERAL
MOTION WITH SOME DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED OVER THE
NEXT DAY OR TWO. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF BEATRIZ IS
EXPECTED TO APPROACH THE COAST WITHIN THE HURRICANE WARNING AREA BY
LATE MONDAY OR EARLY TUESDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 45 MPH...75 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...AND
BEATRIZ IS LIKELY TO BE NEAR HURRICANE STRENGTH BY LATE MONDAY.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 35 MILES...55 KM
FROM THE CENTER.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1001 MB...29.56 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH THE COAST WITHIN
THE HURRICANE WARNING AREA BY LATE MONDAY OR EARLY TUESDAY.
TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO FIRST REACH THE COAST
WITHIN THE HURRICANE WARNING AREA ON MONDAY...MAKING OUTSIDE
PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR DANGEROUS.

RAINFALL...BEATRIZ IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS
OF 6 TO 8 INCHES ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF MEXICO...WITH
POSSIBLE ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 12 INCHES OVER MOUNTAINOUS
TERRAIN. THESE RAINS COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND
MUDSLIDES.

STORM SURGE...A STORM SURGE IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE COASTAL FLOODING
IN AREAS OF ONSHORE WINDS WITHIN THE HURRICANE WARNING AREA. NEAR
THE COAST...THE SURGE WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE AND DESTRUCTIVE
WAVES.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...1100 PM PDT.
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...200 AM PDT.

$$
FORECASTER PASCH/FRANKLIN



TROPICAL STORM BEATRIZ DISCUSSION NUMBER 3
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP022011
800 PM PDT SUN JUN 19 2011

ENHANCED IR IMAGERY INDICATES THAT THE CONVECTIVE CLOUD PATTERN OF
BEATRIZ IS GRADUALLY BECOMING BETTER ORGANIZED...WITH INCREASED
EVIDENCE OF CURVED BANDS AND MORE SYMMETRY AROUND THE ESTIMATED
CENTER. DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE 35 KT AND 45 KT FROM SAB
AND TAFB RESPECTIVELY...AND THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS SET AT 40 KT.
BEATRIZ WILL BE MOVING OVER A VERY WARM SEA SURFACE WITH HIGH
OCEANIC HEAT CONTENT FOR THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS WITH MODERATE
EASTERLY SHEAR. THIS ENVIRONMENT SHOULD ALLOW THE SYSTEM TO BECOME
A HURRICANE BY LATE TOMORROW AS INDICATED BY THE SHIPS...LGEM...AND
GFDL HURRICANE MODEL GUIDANCE. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS SLIGHTLY
ABOVE THESE MODELS SINCE THE SHIPS RAPID INTENSIFICATION INDEX
SHOWS A SIGNIFICANT PROBABILITY OF AN INCREASE OF INTENSITY OF 25
TO 30 KT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. BEYOND 48 HOURS...THE CYCLONE
SHOULD ENCOUNTER SUBSTANTIALLY COOLER SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES AND
A MORE STABLE AIR MASS. THEREFORE BEATRIZ IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN TO
A REMNANT LOW BY THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.

BASED ON A BLEND OF GEOSTATIONARY AND MICROWAVE SATELLITE FIXES THE
INITIAL MOTION IS A RATHER UNCERTAIN 305/10. NO SIGNIFICANT
CHANGES HAVE BEEN MADE TO THE TRACK FORECAST OR REASONING FROM THE
PREVIOUS ADVISORY. A STRONG DEEP-LAYER TROUGH OVER WESTERN AND
CENTRAL NORTH AMERICA SHOULD WEAKEN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE
NORTH OF BEATRIZ AND CAUSE THE TROPICAL CYCLONE TO MOVE MORE TO THE
RIGHT AT A DECREASED FORWARD SPEED OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.
IN THE LATTER HALF OF THE FORECAST PERIOD THE TROUGH SHOULD LIFT
OUT AND ALLOW SOME BUILDING OF A MID-LEVEL RIDGE TO THE NORTH OF
BEATRIZ. THIS WOULD RESULT IN A MORE WESTWARD COURSE...ESPECIALLY
AS THE CYCLONE WEAKENS AND BECOMES STEERED MORE BY THE LOW-LEVEL
EASTERLY FLOW. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS ROUGHLY IN THE MIDDLE OF
THE DYNAMICAL GUIDANCE.

NO CHANGES TO THE WATCHES AND WARNINGS FOR THE COAST OF MEXICO ARE
REQUIRED AT THIS TIME. ONE SHOULD NOT FOCUS ON THE EXACT FORECAST
TRACK SINCE ONLY A SMALL DEVIATION FROM THIS FORECAST COULD BRING
THE CENTER ACROSS THE COAST IN THE HURRICANE WARNING AREA.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 20/0300Z 14.9N 102.1W 40 KT 45 MPH
12H 20/1200Z 15.7N 102.8W 50 KT 60 MPH
24H 21/0000Z 16.9N 103.6W 60 KT 70 MPH
36H 21/1200Z 17.9N 104.3W 70 KT 80 MPH
48H 22/0000Z 18.8N 105.0W 70 KT 80 MPH
72H 23/0000Z 20.0N 108.0W 60 KT 70 MPH
96H 24/0000Z 20.0N 112.0W 40 KT 45 MPH
120H 25/0000Z 20.0N 116.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$
FORECASTER PASCH/FRANKLIN

[plasticup]

It's gonna be close either way, both in terms of potential RI, and in terms of landfalling/affecting the coast.

Well, it is certainly going to affect the coast. Whether or not it technically makes landfall is an open question, but there is no doubt that heavy winds will come ashore.

RI, however, seems less likely. The setup isn't nearly complete. Intensification, of course. Rapid Intensification, doubtful.

[cycloneye]

brunota, from the 8 PM PDT discussion,here is the part regarding the RI.

THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS SLIGHTLY
ABOVE THESE MODELS SINCE THE SHIPS RAPID INTENSIFICATION INDEX
SHOWS A SIGNIFICANT PROBABILITY OF AN INCREASE OF INTENSITY OF 25
TO 30 KT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS

[cycloneye]

[brunota2003]

I saw that! Certainly an interesting system. Depending on where the circulation center is exactly, I think I finally saw my indicator pop up...as CIMSS is catching up with their products finally. Also looking at IR in the same area, I'm feeling pretty confident that significant strengthening will be occurring soon. Will it be 30 knots or more in the 24 hr period? Not sure...but Beatriz seems poised to begin strengthening pretty good within the next 6 to 12 hours.

0215 UTC IR image:



I believe the center is just to the NW of the backward L shaped convection (just to the SSE of that ball that is basically in the center of the image). The backwards L convection is maintaining itself, and that ball just blew up on the loops (and is still building). This could very well be it.

[brunota2003]

An update (the 0240 image) just came through:



There is another piece sprouting up just to the west of where I think the center is. If this is the case, the ADT T#s are homing in on the wrong spot (the 0215 UTC Raw T# is at 3.2). The ADT location is as follows: Lat: 14:49:42 N Lon: 102:00:44 W The area I think it is, is NW of that, above 15N...but that is where the convection is building around.

[brunota2003]

Well, after looking at the newer images since then...it appears the ADT lat/long are closer than I thought they were (or almost dead on). The area I thought was the center has turned into a convective band, and the center appears to be on the SE side of that backward L shape (almost right where that tiny ball is). Since then, the convection has rapidly expanded, and the center is pretty much completely covered in white.

This mistake in location by me, however, does not effect my indicator I noted earlier...as that was on a different product.

[Chacor]

WTPZ32 KNHC 200840
TCPEP2

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM BEATRIZ ADVISORY NUMBER 4
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP022011
200 AM PDT MON JUN 20 2011

...BEATRIZ GETTING BETTER ORGANIZED AND STRENGTHENING OFF OF THE
SOUTH-CENTRAL COAST OF MEXICO...
...HURRICANE WATCH AND WARNING EXTENDED NORTHWARD ALONG THE COAST...


SUMMARY OF 200 AM PDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...15.7N 102.6W
ABOUT 155 MI...245 KM SSW OF ZIHUATANEJO MEXICO
ABOUT 255 MI...410 KM SSE OF MANZANILLO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 315 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...997 MB...29.44 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS EXTENDED THE HURRICANE WARNING
NORTHWARD TO LA FORTUNA.

A HURRICANE WATCH AND A TROPICAL STORM WARNING HAVE BEEN ISSUED FROM
NORTH OF LA FORTUNA TO CABO CORRIENTES.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE COAST OF MEXICO FROM ZIHUATANEJO NORTHWESTWARD TO LA FORTUNA

A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE COAST OF MEXICO FROM NORTH OF LA FORTUNA NORTHWARD TO CABO
CORRIENTES.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE COAST OF MEXICO FROM TECPAN DE GALEANA WESTWARD TO EAST OF
ZIHUATANEJO...AND FROM NORTH OF LA FORTUNA TO CABO CORRIENTES.

PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO
COMPLETION WITHIN THE HURRICANE WARNING AREA.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA ...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 200 AM PDT...0900 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM BEATRIZ WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 15.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 102.6 WEST. BEATRIZ IS
MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 10 MPH...17 KM/H...AND THIS GENERAL
MOTION WITH SOME DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED OVER THE
NEXT DAY OR TWO. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF BEATRIZ IS
EXPECTED TO APPROACH THE COAST WITHIN THE HURRICANE WARNING AREA BY
LATE THIS EVENING OR EARLY TUESDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 60 MPH...95
KM/H...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS LIKELY
DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...AND BEATRIZ IS FORECAST TO BECOME A
HURRICANE LATER TODAY. AN AIR FORCE RESERVE UNIT RECONNAISSANCE
AIRCRAFT IS SCHEDULED TO INVESTIGATE THE TROPICAL STORM LATER TODAY
AND PROVIDE A BETTER ESTIMATE OF ITS STRENGTH.

TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 60 MILES...95 KM
FROM THE CENTER.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 997 MB...29.44 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH THE COAST WITHIN
THE HURRICANE WARNING AREA BY LATE MONDAY OR EARLY TUESDAY.
TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO FIRST REACH THE COAST
WITHIN THE HURRICANE WARNING AREA ON MONDAY...MAKING OUTSIDE
PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR DANGEROUS.

RAINFALL...BEATRIZ IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS
OF 6 TO 8 INCHES ALONG THE COASTS OF THE STATES OF JALISCO...
COLIMA...AND MICHOACAN IN SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO...WITH POSSIBLE
ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 12 INCHES OVER MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN.
THESE RAINS COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD
SLIDES.

STORM SURGE...A STORM SURGE IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE COASTAL FLOODING
IN AREAS OF ONSHORE WINDS WITHIN THE HURRICANE WARNING AREA. NEAR
THE COAST...THE SURGE WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE AND DESTRUCTIVE
WAVES.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...500 AM PDT.
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...800 AM PDT.

$$
FORECASTER STEWART/KIMBERLAIN

WTPZ42 KNHC 200852
TCDEP2

TROPICAL STORM BEATRIZ DISCUSSION NUMBER 4
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP022011
200 AM PDT MON JUN 20 2011

A SIGNIFICANT BURST OF VERY COLD TOPPED CONVECTION HAS DEVELOPED
OVER THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER AND THE CONVECTIVE PATTERN
HAS TAKEN ON A CDO-LIKE APPEARANCE. HOWEVER...THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER
OF BEATRIZ IS NOT LOCATED DIRECTLY IN THE CENTER OF THE CLOUD
MASS...BUT INSTEAD IS LOCATED IN THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE CDO
NEAR SOME VERY COLD OVERSHOOTING CLOUD TOPS OF -85 TO -88C. THIS
MORE EASTWARD ADVISORY POSITION IS SUPPORTED BY EARLIER MICROWAVE
SATELLITE DATA. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 50 KT IS BASED ON A BLEND
OF SATELLITE ESTIMATES OF T3.5/55 KT FROM TAFB...T3.1/47 KT FROM
UW-CIMSS ADT...AND AN INCREASED ORGANIZATION OF THE INNER CORE
CONVECTION.

THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS AN UNCERTAIN 315/9. ALL OF THE MODELS
MOVE A SHORTWAVE TROUGH ACROSS THE SOUTHERN U.S. PLAINS STATES AND
NORTHERN MEXICO DURING THE NEXT 24-36 HOURS..WHICH BRIEFLY WEAKENS
THE RIDGE TO THE NORTH OF BEATRIZ AND ALLOWS THE CYCLONE TO SLOW
DOWN AND MOVE CLOSER TO THE COAST OF MEXICO. THERE IS...HOWEVER...
A SLIGHT BIFURCATION IN THE MODEL GUIDANCE. THE NOGAPS AND UKMET
MODELS KEEP THE CYCLONE MOVING NORTHWESTWARD JUST OFFSHORE OF THE
COAST OF MEXICO...AND THEN TURN IT WESTWARD BY 72 HOURS AS THE
MID-LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS BACK IN TO THE NORTH OF THE CYCLONE. THE
ECMWF...GFS...GFDL...AND HWRF MODELS...HOWEVER...TAKE BEATRIZ JUST
INLAND ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF MEXICO IN ABOUT 36 HOURS.
ALTHOUGH THE LATTER MODELS MOVE THE CENTER JUST INLAND ALONG THE
COAST AND RAPIDLY WEAKEN THE CYCLONE...ALL OF THE MODELS TAKE THE
MID-LEVEL CIRCULATION WESTWARD AFTER 48 HOURS. THE OFFICIAL
FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS TRACK AND KEEPS BEATRIZ JUST
OFFSHORE THROUGH 48 HOURS AND THEN TURNS THE CYCLONE WESTWARD AFTER
THAT AS THE MID-LEVEL RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO BUILD BACK IN TO THE
NORTH OF THE CYCLONE BY 48 HOURS. THIS IS BASED ON THE ASSUMPTION
THAT BEATRIZ WILL MAINTAIN ITS VERTICAL CONTINUITY AND NOT DECOUPLE
DUE TO LAND INTERACTION. HOWEVER...ONLY A SLIGHT DEVIATION TO THE
RIGHT OF THE FORECAST TRACK IS NEEDED TO BRING THE CYCLONE NEAR OR
INLAND ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF MEXICO. FOR THIS REASON...
WATCHES AND WARNINGS HAVE BEEN EXTENDED NORTHWARD ALONG THE COAST.

THE INNER CORE CONVECTION AND UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW PATTERNS HAVE
IMPROVED CONSIDERABLY DURING THE PAST 6 HOURS. WITH AN ALREADY
EXPANSIVE EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW PATTERN PRESENT...AND THE POLEWARD
OUTFLOW EXPECTED TO IMPROVE BY 24 HOURS...THERE APPEARS TO BE NO
PHYSICAL REASONS WHY BEATRIZ SHOULD NOT CONTINUE TO INTENSIFY FOR
THE NEXT 48 HOURS OR SO...AND POSSIBLY EVEN RAPIDLY INTENSIFY
DURING THAT TIME. THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST IS HIGHER THAN
THE AVAILABLE MODEL GUIDANCE AND INDICATES A SLIGHTLY FASTER THAN
NORMAL RATE OF INTENSIFICATION FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS SINCE THE
VERTICAL SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO DECREASE TO NEAR 10 KT WHILE THE
CYCLONE REMAINS OVER SSTS ABOVE 29C. BEYOND 48 HOURS...BEATRIZ IS
EXPECTED TO ENCOUNTER SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES OF 22-24C AND ALSO
MOVE INTO A MORE STABLE AIR MASS...WHICH SHOULD RESULT IN THE
CYCLONE WEAKENING INTO A REMNANT LOW BY DAY 5...IF NOT SOONER.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 20/0900Z 15.7N 102.6W 50 KT 60 MPH
12H 20/1800Z 16.6N 103.2W 60 KT 70 MPH
24H 21/0600Z 17.6N 104.0W 75 KT 85 MPH
36H 21/1800Z 18.7N 104.7W 80 KT 90 MPH
48H 22/0600Z 19.4N 105.8W 80 KT 90 MPH
72H 23/0600Z 20.2N 109.1W 60 KT 70 MPH
96H 24/0600Z 20.2N 112.5W 35 KT 40 MPH
120H 25/0600Z 20.2N 116.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$
FORECASTER STEWART

[Chacor]

NOUS42 KNHC 191715 AMD
WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
0115 PM EDT SUN 19 JUNE 2011
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
VALID 20/1100Z TO 21/1100Z JUNE 2011
TCPOD NUMBER.....11-019 AMENDMENT

I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.
2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY....NEGATIVE.

II. PACIFIC REQUIREMENTS
1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO-E.......ADDED:
FLIGHT ONE -- TEAL 70
A. 20/1800Z
B. AFXXX 0102E CYCLONE
C. 20/1500Z
D. 16.4N 102.6W
E. 20/1730Z TO 20/2100Z
F. SFC TO 10,000 FT
2. SUCCEEDING DAY OUTLOOK....NEGATIVE.
EC

[KWT]

The only thing that could limit it is if it drags in some less moist air from Mexico, however I think the NHC call won't be far off the mark with this one.

A quick fire hurricane followed by pretty quick weakening.

[brunota2003]

Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

Well, Beatriz has filled in nicely overnight for sure (along with some modest strengthening)! Now here comes the dreaded part...RI should begin in the next 4 or 5 hours...or most likely before Noon EDT.

I am going to up it, I am thinking a solid upper Cat 2, maybe even a low/mid end Cat 3 before the night tonight is through. Land should keep it in check beyond that (sadly, would prefer it far away from land).

[cycloneye]

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM BEATRIZ INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 4A
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP022011
500 AM PDT MON JUN 20 2011

...RAINBANDS FROM BEATRIZ SPREADING ONTO THE COAST OF MEXICO...


SUMMARY OF 500 AM PDT...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.0N 102.8W
ABOUT 140 MI...225 KM SW OF ZIHUATANEJO MEXICO
ABOUT 245 MI...395 KM SSE OF MANZANILLO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 315 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...997 MB...29.44 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE COAST OF MEXICO FROM ZIHUATANEJO NORTHWESTWARD TO LA FORTUNA

A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE COAST OF MEXICO FROM NORTH OF LA FORTUNA NORTHWARD TO CABO
CORRIENTES

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* FROM TECPAN DE GALEANA WESTWARD TO EAST OF ZIHUATANEJO
* FROM NORTH OF LA FORTUNA TO CABO CORRIENTES

PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO
COMPLETION WITHIN THE HURRICANE WARNING AREA.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 500 AM PDT...1200 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM BEATRIZ WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 16.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 102.8 WEST. BEATRIZ IS
MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 10 MPH...17 KM/H. THIS GENERAL
MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT DAY OR TWO WITH SOME
DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF
BEATRIZ IS EXPECTED TO APPROACH THE COAST WITHIN THE HURRICANE
WARNING AREA BY LATE THIS EVENING OR EARLY TUESDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 60 MPH...95 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. STRENGTHENING IS LIKELY DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...AND
BEATRIZ IS FORECAST TO BECOME A HURRICANE LATER TODAY. AN AIR
FORCE RESERVE UNIT RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT IS SCHEDULED TO
INVESTIGATE BEATRIZ LATER TODAY AND PROVIDE A BETTER ESTIMATE OF
ITS STRENGTH.

TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 60 MILES...95 KM
FROM THE CENTER.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 997 MB...29.44 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH THE COAST WITHIN
THE HURRICANE WARNING AREA BY TONIGHT OR EARLY TUESDAY. TROPICAL
STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO FIRST REACH THE COAST WITHIN THE
HURRICANE WARNING AREA LATER TODAY...MAKING OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS
DIFFICULT OR DANGEROUS.

RAINFALL...BEATRIZ IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS
OF 6 TO 8 INCHES ALONG THE COASTS OF THE STATES OF JALISCO...COLIMA
...AND MICHOACAN IN SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO...WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED
MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 12 INCHES OVER MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN. THESE RAINS
COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES.

STORM SURGE...A STORM SURGE IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE COASTAL FLOODING
IN AREAS OF ONSHORE WINDS WITHIN THE HURRICANE WARNING AREA. NEAR
THE COAST...THE SURGE WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE AND DESTRUCTIVE
WAVES.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...800 AM PDT.

$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN