WPAC: AERE (1101/03W/Bebeng) - Tropical Storm

[senorpepr]

Hmmm... looks like JMA has downgraded the area to a Low Pressure Area:

LOW PRESSURE AREA 1006 HPA NEAR 09N 131E WEST SLOWLY.


PAGASA has upgraded the area to TD Bebeng--

Severe Weather Bulletin Number ONE
Tropical Cyclone Warning: Tropical Depression "BEBENG"
Issued at 11:00 p.m., Friday, 06 May 2011
The Low Pressure Area (LPA) East of Visayas has intensified into a tropical depression and was named "BEBENG".

Location of Center: (as of 10:00 p.m.) 250 km East of Borongan, Eastern Samar
Coordinates: 11.7°N, 127.9°E
Strength: Maximum winds of 55 kph near the center
Movement: West Northwest at 13 kph

Forecast Positions/Outlook:
Saturday evening:
150 km East Southeast of Legaspi City

Sunday evening:
120 km East of Infanta, Quezon

Monday evening:
50 km Southeast of Vigan City

Areas Having Public Storm Warning Signal

Signal No. 1 (30-60 kph winds)

Luzon
Camarines Sur
Albay
Catanduanes
Sorsogon
Masbate
Ticao Islands
Burias Islands

Visayas
Leyte
Samar Provinces
Biliran Island

Residents living in low lying and mountainous areas under signal # 1 are alerted against possible flashfloods and landslides.

The public and the disaster coordinating councils concerned are advised to take appropriate actions and watch for the next bulletin to be issued at 5 AM tomorrow.

[P.K.]

Not sure what time period that was from Senor as they had it as a TD at 12Z.

18Z:

WARNING.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 1004 HPA
AT 12.0N 128.4E SEA EAST OF PHILIPPINES MOVING WESTNORTHWEST SLOWLY.
POSITION POOR.
MAX WINDS 30 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.

[Extratropical94]

Now what do you think about this wind speed image...



Really curious for the next dvorak estimation, should be arriving soon.

[senorpepr]

Not sure what time period that was from Senor as they had it as a TD at 12Z.

18Z:

WARNING.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 1004 HPA
AT 12.0N 128.4E SEA EAST OF PHILIPPINES MOVING WESTNORTHWEST SLOWLY.
POSITION POOR.
MAX WINDS 30 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.

Ahh jeez... Thanks. It's been really busy this week (wife has been in the hospital--she's back home today and doing fine) and didn't notice I had yesterday's bulletin pulled up.

Thanks for posting the correct bulletin.

[Extratropical94]

06/2032 UTC 12.2N 127.0E T2.5/2.5 03W -- West Pacific

That's equal to 35 knots.
Won't be long until we see Aere.

[StormingB81]

Yes lets see what it wants to do..

[senorpepr]

Severe Weather Bulletin Number TWO
Tropical Cyclone Warning: Tropical Depression "BEBENG"
Issued at 5:00 a.m., Saturday, 07 May 2011

Tropical Depression "BEBENG" has maintained its strength while it continues to move West Northwestward.

Location of Center:(as of 4:00 a.m.) 190 km East Northeast of Borongan, Eastern Samar
Coordinates: 12.1°N, 127.2°E
Strength: Maximum winds of 55 kph near the center
Movement: West Northwest at 13 kph

Forecast Positions/Outlook:
Sunday morning:
60 km East of Virac, Catanduanes

Monday morning:
140 km East Northeast of Baler, Aurora

Tuesday morning:
110 km South Southeast of Vigan City


Signal No. 1
(30-60 kph winds)

Luzon
Camarines Sur
Camarines Norte
Albay
Catanduanes
Sorsogon
Masbate
Ticao
Burias Islands

Visayas
Leyte
Samar Provinces
Biliran Island

Residents living in low lying and mountainous areas under signal # 1 are alerted against possible flashfloods and landslides.

The public and the disaster coordinating councils concerned are advised to take appropriate actions and watch for the next bulletin to be issued at 11 AM today.

[StormingB81]

Pretty interesting it keeps it off the Tawain Coast.



although I will say that if it does do that the waters up here or still cool arnt they..I dont see much developement if it turns north...anyone have anything on that?

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[HURAKAN]

Latest

[HURAKAN]

06/2032 UTC 12.2N 127.0E T2.5/2.5 03W -- West Pacific

35 knots

[HURAKAN]

TXPN23 KNES 062115
SIMWIR

A. 03W (NONAME)

B. 06/2032Z

C. 12.2N

D. 127.0E

E. FIVE/MTSAT

F. T2.5/2.5/D1.5/24HRS

G. IR/EIR/SWIR/AMSRE/TMI

H. REMARKS...WELL DEFINED CIRCULATION AND WELL ORGANIZED BALL OF
CONVECTION THAT HAS VERY NICE BANDING STRUCTURES SEEN IN RECENT
MICROWAVE IMAGERY. DT IS 2.5 BASED ON .4 BANDING AND/OR .75 DEGREES
FROM DEEP CONVECTION IF USING THE SHEAR METHOD. MET IS 2.0. PT IS
2.5. GIVEN MULTIPLE METHODS YIELDING SAME VALUE FT IS BASED ON DT.
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 50 NM (93 KM).

I. ADDL POSITIONS

06/1702Z 11.9N 127.5E AMSRE
06/1827Z 12.1N 127.4E TMI


...GALLINA

[Chacor]

06/2032 UTC 12.2N 127.0E T2.5/2.5 03W -- West Pacific

That's equal to 35 knots.
Won't be long until we see Aere.

Wrong. Might not be long until JTWC upgrades to a TS, but JMA-the RSMC in charge of naming-will not upgrade to Aere unless and until they themselves analyse it at TS strength. They won't upgrade based on a single 2.5 from KNES.

[oaba09]

Latest from pagasa

[HURAKAN]

heavy rainfall over the central Philippines

[phwxenthusiast]

JTWC will probably upgrade by 00z while JMA will on 06z... just my opinion... we saw this too many times last year where JMA was the last one to classify a system as a TS...

[oaba09]

I'm not sure if the wobble is tricking my eye but the system seems to moving more WNW than NW...

[StormingB81]

could be a wobble..

[HURAKAN]

Latest

[dexterlabio]

Whatever happened to its eastern side? By looking at a mere satpic, I thought the center was in Samar already. But it looks nice for a TD/TS.

[StormingB81]

See what i does...it seems its very split from going into PI to curving...only time will tell.