ATL: IRENE - Remnants - Discussion

[Macrocane]

AIR FORCE

000
URNT15 KNHC 242127
AF302 1709A IRENE HDOB 03 20110824
211800 1752N 06507W 5710 04808 0089 -005 -043 131009 010 /// /// 03
211830 1753N 06509W 5580 05007 0103 -014 -056 142011 011 017 000 03
211900 1754N 06511W 5496 05132 0263 -022 -070 145011 011 016 000 00
211930 1754N 06513W 5407 05259 0269 -031 -077 146009 010 017 000 00
212000 1755N 06515W 5302 05416 0277 -040 -086 151007 008 015 000 00
212030 1756N 06517W 5205 05563 0287 -044 -101 131009 010 016 000 00
212100 1757N 06519W 5113 05703 0295 -052 -122 146008 009 017 000 00
212130 1757N 06521W 5061 05782 0297 -058 -136 153007 007 017 000 00
212200 1758N 06524W 5054 05788 0295 -060 -133 148006 006 016 000 00
212230 1759N 06526W 5057 05776 0293 -057 -170 158006 006 020 000 00
212300 1800N 06528W 5062 05767 0292 -055 -165 164007 008 026 000 00
212330 1801N 06531W 5057 05782 0293 -065 -110 158010 012 029 003 03
212400 1801N 06533W 5060 05783 0294 -062 -137 145008 009 025 000 03
212430 1802N 06536W 5060 05780 0295 -056 -132 142007 008 017 000 03
212500 1804N 06538W 5060 05780 0293 -056 -133 131005 006 019 000 00
212530 1806N 06539W 5061 05776 0292 -058 -133 135008 009 018 000 00
212600 1808N 06541W 5060 05771 0290 -061 -128 134008 008 019 000 00
212630 1810N 06543W 5058 05770 0282 -063 -121 127007 008 /// /// 03
212700 1813N 06544W 5061 05728 0245 -061 -120 117007 007 /// /// 03
212730 1815N 06546W 5060 05361 4935 -061 -126 117007 008 /// /// 03
$$
;

[CronkPSU]

it missed Long Island to the east according to the 21:15 frame

Also appears to have taken a skip to the north in the last few frames (appears being the key word).

i don't think so, i think it is still on the same motion, just stopped doing every 8-10 minute intervals and skipped to a half hour on that one frame

http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/get-goes?satellite=GOES-E%20CONUS&lat=20&lon=-70&info=ir&zoom=1&width=1024&height=800&type=Animation&quality=90&numframes=10&palette=spect.pal

[cycloneye]

NOAA2

URNT15 KWBC 242133
NOAA2 1609A IRENE HDOB 08 20110824
212400 2541N 07752W 5698 04826 0040 +016 -030 051026 026 /// /// 03
212430 2539N 07750W 5699 04824 0034 +018 -021 059025 025 /// /// 03
212500 2537N 07748W 5699 04823 0038 +015 -011 061025 026 /// /// 03
212530 2536N 07747W 5701 04821 0035 +017 -009 059024 025 /// /// 03
212600 2534N 07745W 5702 04818 0041 +014 -021 052027 029 /// /// 03
212630 2532N 07744W 5702 04817 0045 +012 -030 050029 029 /// /// 03
212700 2530N 07742W 5702 04817 0035 +015 -014 052028 029 /// /// 03
212730 2529N 07740W 5702 04816 0035 +016 -019 050029 030 /// /// 03
212800 2527N 07739W 5702 04814 0039 +013 -011 042025 026 /// /// 03
212830 2525N 07737W 5702 04816 0040 +013 -011 040024 025 /// /// 03
212900 2524N 07736W 5702 04814 0036 +014 -014 043023 025 /// /// 03
212930 2522N 07734W 5702 04815 0035 +015 -015 052027 029 /// /// 03
213000 2520N 07733W 5651 04889 0039 +008 -017 046029 031 /// /// 03
213030 2518N 07735W 5627 04921 0031 +011 -026 050035 036 /// /// 03
213100 2517N 07737W 5601 04959 0025 +012 -032 055034 036 /// /// 03
213130 2518N 07740W 5550 05032 0039 +000 -024 060028 029 /// /// 03
213200 2520N 07742W 5509 05096 0038 -002 -024 060021 024 /// /// 03
213230 2521N 07744W 5436 05203 0250 -006 -033 053021 023 /// /// 03
213300 2522N 07746W 5384 05280 0255 -009 -039 051025 025 /// /// 03
213330 2523N 07748W 5345 05340 0261 -012 -054 054024 025 /// /// 03

[hurricaneCW]

We'll know everything as soon as recon gets over there so patience everyone, it could be moving more to the north but it could also be an illusion due to several factors like an EWRC.

[bayoubebe]

This thing looks very well defined, and monstrous to my very ameteur eye.

I have a question for the Floridians. Have you all been warned at all to take precautions and/or evacuate? I know the latest paths do not show it taking a direct hit to you, but it is awfully close to your state. It seems any nudge to the west could be bad for you.

[ConvergenceZone]

Am I wrong in my thinking that the NHC still has this heading for NY? For some reason I thought when I looked this morning it looked as if it would miss NY and potentially landfall around RI? but I think I mis-read the map, because NY appears to be right down the middle.?

I'm a bit more concerned than this morning, because the eastward trend of the models appear to have stopped for now.

[cheezyWXguy]

yeah latest sat images show it doing another little loops responding to convection firing.. also microwave shows concentric features of a ERC with the inner eye barely over the southern coast of long island. what we see on vis imagery is the tilting of the mid and upper levels....

Im also thinking this looping were seeing is the smaller eyewall spinning along the rim of the larger outer eyewall. That might also explain why the storm is slightly tilted since the inner eye is not in the direct center of the outer eye. Based on microwave, the outer wall doesnt look half bad right now, Im thinking this wont take much more than another 12 hours to complete as it tightens up, and then we might see this thing start to take off again tomorrow.

[cycloneye]

Who wants to post the AF data? Also the google graphics?

Cycloneye I can post the AF data.

OK good.

[Macrocane]

AIR FORCE

000
URNT15 KNHC 242137
AF302 1709A IRENE HDOB 04 20110824
212800 1817N 06547W 5061 05141 4636 -061 -125 135006 008 /// /// 03
212830 1819N 06549W 5061 05157 4719 -061 -116 187004 006 /// /// 03
212900 1820N 06551W 5060 05637 0133 -061 -127 199008 010 /// /// 03
212930 1822N 06553W 5058 05742 0220 -062 -127 177014 015 /// /// 03
213000 1823N 06556W 5058 05727 0242 -071 -107 165014 015 /// /// 03
213030 1823N 06558W 5058 05729 0233 -074 -094 145014 015 /// /// 03
213100 1824N 06601W 5062 05705 0227 -068 -104 150015 016 /// /// 03
213130 1824N 06604W 5061 05729 0244 -070 -097 154015 015 /// /// 03
213200 1825N 06606W 5060 05728 0246 -069 -101 148013 013 /// /// 03
213230 1826N 06609W 5060 05740 0256 -070 -106 142014 016 /// /// 03
213300 1826N 06612W 5059 05742 0253 -067 -106 128015 017 /// /// 03
213330 1827N 06614W 5064 05728 0254 -067 -104 141009 012 /// /// 03
213400 1827N 06617W 5060 05734 0257 -070 -094 167008 010 /// /// 03
213430 1828N 06620W 4984 05850 0262 -075 -117 165009 010 /// /// 03
213500 1828N 06622W 4905 05979 0276 -077 -142 159008 010 /// /// 03
213530 1829N 06625W 4813 06139 0297 -084 -166 176006 008 /// /// 03
213600 1830N 06627W 4739 06271 0302 -081 -196 155004 006 /// /// 03
213630 1830N 06629W 4667 06395 0318 -089 -200 169001 002 /// /// 03
213700 1831N 06632W 4599 06509 0324 -101 -169 309001 001 /// /// 03
213730 1831N 06634W 4546 06596 0328 -109 -166 326003 004 021 000 03
$$
;

[SunnyThoughts]

Big burst going on in the Northeastern section of the storm.

[Aric Dunn]

yeah latest sat images show it doing another little loops responding to convection firing.. also microwave shows concentric features of a ERC with the inner eye barely over the southern coast of long island. what we see on vis imagery is the tilting of the mid and upper levels....

Im also thinking this looping were seeing is the smaller eyewall spinning along the rim of the larger outer eyewall. That might also explain why the storm is slightly tilted since the inner eye is not in the direct center of the outer eye. Based on microwave, the outer wall doesnt look half bad right now, Im thinking this wont take much more than another 12 hours to complete as it tightens up, and then we might see this thing start to take off again tomorrow.

what this does however is during this process the wind field typically expands quite a bit.. so TS winds may end up on the florida coast regardless if it get closer or not.

[Dave]

I've got NOAA If you want a break.

[cyclogenesis]

August 24, 2011
this Wednesday afternoon
441 PM CDT


Gang ~~ I have added a NEW weather writing to my website concerning your Hurricane "Irene". It's at this following website weblink appearing below:


http://cvamagic.tripod.com/





-- cyclogenesis

[Dave]

Cycloneye..I'm set for NOAA2

[TropicalWXMA]

Just got word that one of the hurricane hunter planes are having engine problems and are RTB.

Unsure if it is the NOAA Lockheed WP-3D Orion, reg N42RF or the USAF Lockheed Martin WC-130J Hercules, reg 96-5302.

[cycloneye]

Ok Dave.But I think they turned around.

[clfenwi]

NOAA plane turned back west and is ascending.... mission abort?

[cycloneye]

NOAA2 turns around to base

URNT15 KWBC 242143
NOAA2 1609A IRENE HDOB 09 20110824
213400 2524N 07750W 5283 05434 0269 -020 -059 055024 025 /// /// 03
213430 2526N 07752W 5258 05473 0272 -026 -055 058026 027 /// /// 03
213500 2527N 07754W 5240 05500 0273 -029 -059 057025 026 /// /// 03
213530 2528N 07756W 5187 05581 0279 -031 -075 052020 022 /// /// 03
213600 2529N 07758W 5119 05686 0285 -035 -086 056019 019 /// /// 03
213630 2530N 07800W 5123 05679 0286 -033 -094 059020 021 027 000 03
213700 2531N 07802W 5097 05721 0288 -036 -096 059022 022 026 001 00
213730 2532N 07804W 5047 05798 0292 -042 -116 061024 025 027 000 00
213800 2533N 07807W 4998 05874 0297 -049 -122 063025 026 027 000 00
213830 2534N 07809W 4959 05937 0301 -049 -164 065024 025 028 000 00
213900 2535N 07811W 4943 05961 0303 -045 -179 069021 021 028 000 00
213930 2536N 07813W 4919 05999 0305 -048 -174 069020 020 028 000 00
214000 2537N 07815W 4913 06009 0306 -049 -154 070018 020 028 000 00
214030 2538N 07818W 4892 06044 0308 -054 -140 069016 017 029 000 00
214100 2540N 07820W 4848 06115 0313 -058 -147 062016 016 029 000 00
214130 2541N 07822W 4806 06181 0317 -059 -224 060014 015 029 001 00
214200 2542N 07824W 4769 06243 0322 -060 -279 056012 012 029 000 00
214230 2543N 07826W 4750 06275 0324 -062 -281 054011 012 030 000 00
214300 2544N 07828W 4698 06360 0330 -068 -226 059012 012 030 000 00
214330 2545N 07831W 4679 06397 0334 -072 -212 062011 011 029 001 00

[Hurricaneman]

Sounds like engine problems with the NOAA plane

[Dave]

Just got word that one of the hurricane hunter planes are having engine problems and are RTB.

Unsure if it is the NOAA Lockheed WP-3D Orion, reg N42RF or the USAF Lockheed Martin WC-130J Hercules, reg 96-5302.

Could be NOAA2 - from last hdobs, they're increasing in lat again..got to the edge of Irene but on ge have turned around.