ATL: EMILY - Remnants

[hurricanefloyd5]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
335 AM EDT WED AUG 3 2011


SAT-SUN...WEEKEND FORECAST DEPENDS ON THE TRACK AND STRENGTH OF
CURRENT TROPICAL STORM EMILY LOCATED IN THE NORTHWEST CARIBBEAN
SOUTH OF PUERTO RICO. SEE THE LATEST HURRICANE CENTER ADVISORIES.

ON THE CURRENT TRACK THAT TAKES THE STORM EAST OF CENTRAL FLORIDA
SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT...RAIN CHANCES WOULD BE LOWER BEING
IN THE SUBSIDENT AREA SURROUNDING THE STORM. BREEZY TO WINDY
CONDITIONS AND POSSIBLY SQUALLY WEATHER AT THE COAST AS THE STORM
MOVES ALMOST PARALLEL TO FLORIDA SHORELINE. FLOW OFF THE ATLANTIC
SHOULD KEEP HIGHS IN THE LOWER 90S ACROSS THE BOARD.

MON-TUES...BROAD TROUGH MOVES OVERTOP THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE
NATION AS EMILY IS FORECAST TO LIFT NORTHEAST AND AWAY FROM THE
MAINLAND. WESTERLY FLOW WILL PULL EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO MOISTURE
ACROSS THE PENINSULA RESULTING IN AROUND A 40 PERCENT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND STORMS BOTH DAYS WITH MOST OF THE STORMS CONCENTRATED ON
THE ATLANTIC SIDE OF THE STATE.


http://forecast.weather.gov/product.php ... glossary=1

[Gustywind]

TS Emily poorly organized given the latest weather forecasts of the NHC...

[clfenwi]

URNT15 KNHC 031200
AF306 0705A EMILY HDOB 48 20110803
115000 1645N 06620W 8426 01592 0125 +166 +086 157033 034 027 002 00
115030 1645N 06618W 8434 01583 0135 +151 +086 148034 037 031 011 00
115100 1646N 06617W 8434 01579 0132 +150 +081 151033 035 023 006 00
115130 1647N 06615W 8413 01599 0126 +160 +075 155032 033 019 003 03
115200 1647N 06613W 8425 01592 0122 +169 +073 153029 031 023 002 03
115230 1647N 06612W 8435 01584 0121 +170 +073 158028 030 028 001 00
115300 1648N 06610W 8426 01592 0123 +170 +075 150030 031 028 001 00
115330 1648N 06609W 8424 01594 0123 +170 +078 145030 030 027 001 00
115400 1649N 06607W 8423 01595 0125 +165 +079 150033 036 021 001 00
115430 1650N 06606W 8425 01592 0123 +168 +079 153032 034 024 004 03
115500 1651N 06604W 8430 01586 0125 +167 +078 152034 036 024 004 03
115530 1652N 06603W 8425 01594 0127 +164 +078 149036 037 021 000 03
115600 1654N 06602W 8428 01593 0128 +165 +078 143035 035 023 000 00
115630 1655N 06601W 8427 01592 0127 +165 +077 140035 035 023 000 00
115700 1657N 06600W 8424 01596 0127 +165 +078 141034 035 024 000 00
115730 1658N 06600W 8430 01591 0127 +169 +079 140034 034 023 000 00
115800 1700N 06559W 8424 01598 0128 +167 +080 139034 034 023 000 03
115830 1701N 06557W 8422 01599 0128 +167 +080 140032 032 023 001 03
115900 1702N 06556W 8426 01594 0128 +170 +080 142032 032 024 000 00
115930 1703N 06555W 8426 01595 0129 +169 +080 141032 032 022 001 03

[CourierPR]

It's storms like this that remind us Mother Nature still often prevails over technology LOL. I hope that S Fla pays attention because there could be a rude awakening in a couple of days otherwise. Unfortunately, we all know most of southern FL isn't watching this too closely.

Today will be very telling, IMO, as to the future track. Staying W or finally going NW? Turning or not turning? These are the days in the tropics

The media here have been minimizing Emily and telling us that it will pass well to our east. When they do that I always start to prepare for a strike.

[wxman57]

Recon reports would suggest that Emily barely qualifies as having an LLC. Just a very tiny, weak vortex was all they could find. No low-level flow into the center for the most part. It's very nearly just a sharp wave.

[cycloneye]

Recon reports would suggest that Emily barely qualifies as having an LLC. Just a very tiny, weak vortex was all they could find. No low-level flow into the center for the most part. It's very nearly just a sharp wave.

That was what the last night's ASCAT showed,no west winds.

[clfenwi]

URNT15 KNHC 031210
AF306 0705A EMILY HDOB 49 20110803
120000 1703N 06553W 8428 01591 0129 +167 +081 141031 032 021 001 00
120030 1704N 06552W 8429 01595 0130 +166 +081 140030 030 023 000 00
120100 1705N 06550W 8424 01599 0129 +170 +080 144031 031 023 001 00
120130 1706N 06549W 8432 01593 0128 +171 +080 143031 031 023 001 00
120200 1707N 06547W 8429 01594 0130 +169 +080 144031 032 022 001 03
120230 1707N 06546W 8425 01597 0128 +170 +080 143031 031 023 000 00
120300 1708N 06544W 8428 01595 0129 +170 +080 145031 031 021 001 00
120330 1708N 06543W 8428 01594 0130 +170 +080 147031 031 022 000 00
120400 1709N 06541W 8425 01598 0129 +170 +081 150031 031 022 000 00
120430 1709N 06540W 8430 01596 0128 +173 +081 150030 030 020 000 00
120500 1710N 06538W 8425 01601 0127 +175 +082 152031 031 019 001 00
120530 1710N 06537W 8430 01594 0126 +175 +082 152030 030 019 001 00
120600 1711N 06535W 8428 01599 0127 +175 +082 151029 029 021 000 00
120630 1712N 06534W 8425 01599 0125 +175 +082 151029 029 019 000 00
120700 1712N 06532W 8432 01594 0126 +176 +082 151030 030 021 000 00
120730 1713N 06530W 8424 01601 0129 +175 +082 149030 030 019 000 00
120800 1714N 06529W 8428 01599 0130 +175 +082 148031 031 020 000 00
120830 1715N 06528W 8427 01600 0131 +173 +082 148029 031 018 002 00
120900 1715N 06526W 8429 01595 0131 +172 +082 146028 029 020 000 00
120930 1716N 06525W 8429 01596 0133 +169 +082 150028 029 021 000 00

[Kory]

Well its more than water temperature that affect the strengthening of the system. The upper level conditions don't look perfect in the Bahamas with some slight north shear possibly from the ridge of continental US. It will be sufficient for gradual strengthening, but even now the conditions are good, not great, in the Caribbean and we haven't seen Emily get her act together.

[mutley]

It's storms like this that remind us Mother Nature still often prevails over technology LOL. I hope that S Fla pays attention because there could be a rude awakening in a couple of days otherwise. Unfortunately, we all know most of southern FL isn't watching this too closely.

Today will be very telling, IMO, as to the future track. Staying W or finally going NW? Turning or not turning? These are the days in the tropics

The media here have been minimizing Emily and telling us that it will pass well to our east. When they do that I always start to prepare for a strike.

With Emily fighting shear, more possible center relocations, and seemingly continuing westward, I can't help but wonder if models will start putting her into the gulf by this afternoon. Emily is being very tricky. I, for one, will be paying very close attention today.

[bucman1]

This reminds me of a possible Hurricane Donna path up the spine of the state.
Does anyone seesible comparison?

[KWT]

Now, for her to make landfall at the forecasted forecasted track by the NHC on the Dominican Republic, she will start to head on a 318 deg heading, like right now, surely that is not happening.
If she stays on a 280 deg heading she is in course to come across Jamaica, just a fact.

Yep its going to have to pick up some latitude if its going to hit where the NHC think it is...

[Aric Dunn]

I think 280 is a little too far right, looks to me more like 275.

That being said the difference between the last advisory point and the last recon fix is about 279, so 280 degrees may not be quite so bad...

yeah .. but they are going off 6 hour motion so that technically might be 280

[KWT]

Recon reports would suggest that Emily barely qualifies as having an LLC. Just a very tiny, weak vortex was all they could find. No low-level flow into the center for the most part. It's very nearly just a sharp wave.

Yep, thats what is probably allowing the system to take a ore westerly track as well..uts strange because the mid levels look real good but the low level has seemingly struggled to get its act together.

[clfenwi]

URNT15 KNHC 031220
AF306 0705A EMILY HDOB 50 20110803
121000 1717N 06523W 8429 01598 0134 +166 +082 150030 030 022 000 03
121030 1719N 06522W 8422 01606 0137 +165 +082 141032 033 023 000 00
121100 1720N 06521W 8417 01609 0137 +164 +082 142032 033 025 001 00
121130 1722N 06521W 8432 01597 0137 +164 +082 143031 032 026 000 03
121200 1723N 06520W 8428 01600 0138 +163 +083 134029 029 028 001 00
121230 1724N 06518W 8421 01607 0139 +161 +082 135030 030 028 002 00
121300 1725N 06517W 8429 01600 0139 +163 +081 135030 030 027 001 00
121330 1726N 06516W 8422 01606 0137 +164 +080 136029 030 026 001 00
121400 1727N 06514W 8426 01603 0137 +165 +080 137029 029 023 001 00
121430 1728N 06513W 8420 01610 0137 +166 +081 139030 031 022 000 00
121500 1729N 06511W 8426 01603 0137 +167 +082 138031 031 021 001 00
121530 1730N 06510W 8422 01607 0136 +170 +082 139027 028 018 000 00
121600 1731N 06509W 8425 01605 0133 +174 +083 137027 028 016 000 00
121630 1732N 06507W 8425 01604 0130 +177 +084 138030 031 016 000 00
121700 1733N 06506W 8427 01602 0134 +170 +085 139031 032 018 000 00
121730 1733N 06505W 8420 01608 0135 +169 +085 139030 030 018 000 00
121800 1734N 06503W 8428 01601 0138 +167 +085 135029 030 021 001 00
121830 1735N 06502W 8427 01602 0137 +169 +085 132029 029 019 000 00
121900 1736N 06501W 8420 01611 0135 +172 +085 134028 028 022 001 00
121930 1737N 06459W 8425 01602 0132 +174 +086 142028 030 021 002 00

URNT11 KNHC 031159
97779 11574 40170 66000 15200 14034 17089 /2521
41325
RMK AF306 0705A EMILY OB 19
SWS = 22 KTS
LAST REPORT


Next mission is scheduled to launch in about 4-1/2 hours... 1645Z.

[Aric Dunn]

well just got done calculating it again and yeah 275 is about right.

whats the average for the last 12 hours since you are in calculation mode?

In case Aric has not responded yet, but I calculated around 280 deg, so the NHC is right on their 8 AM AST advisory.

Now, for her to make landfall at the forecasted forecasted track by the NHC on the Dominican Republic, she will start to head on a 318 deg heading, like right now, surely that is not happening.
If she stays on a 280 deg heading she is in course to come across Jamaica, just a fact.

yeah sorry was driving to work. could not reply..

[Aric Dunn]

yeah seems its forward motion is still too fast..

[Gustywind]

Tropical Storm Emily: Southeast Faces a Close Encounter

http://www.accuweather.com/blogs/news/s ... ccuweather

By Kristina Pydynowski, Senior Meteorologist

Aug 3, 2011; 8:00 AM ET

"Emily may be forecast to remain off the Southeast coast, but residents should not let their guard down yet."

Tropical Storm Emily is still on track to slam into Hispaniola tonight, then make a close encounter with the southeastern U.S. this weekend. Emily is less than 18 hours from making its first landfall in Hispaniola, creating misery and threatening lives in Haiti and neighboring Dominican Republic.

After spreading heavy rain across Puerto Rico today, Emily will reach southern Hispaniola early tonight as a strong tropical storm.

The AccuWeather.com Hurricane Center has more information on Emily's current position, strength and movement.

Any intensification Emily undergoes today will be erased by its interaction with the mountains that rise to around 10,000 feet on Hispaniola and 4,000 feet on the southeastern tip of Cuba tonight into Thursday.

That mountainous terrain, however, will likely not bring about Emily's demise.

Emily will instead emerge as a weakened tropical storm into the southwestern Atlantic, where it will make its closest encounter with the southeastern U.S. this weekend.

Current Forecast Track of Emily

The future track of Emily by the AccuWeather.com Hurricane Center takes the tropical storm across the northwestern Bahamas, then spares the Southeast coast from a direct hit.

A pair of storm systems set to move eastward across the U.S. should steer Emily away from the Southeast and into the open waters of the Atlantic. Emily will likely still intensify into a hurricane as it curves and misses the U.S.

If this scenario pans out, the worst of Emily's wind and rain would bypass the Southeast. The outer rain bands of Emily could still graze parts of the coastline depending on how close the storm tracks to land.

"At the very least, it appears that Emily will move close enough to the U.S. to produce very dangerous surf with high wave action and a high rip current risk," stated AccuWeather.com Meteorologist Meghan Evans.

Landfall on U.S. Soil Not Out of the Question

Emily may be forecast to remain off the Southeast coast, but residents should not let their guard down yet.

It is not out of the question that the curve Emily is supposed to make gets delayed, opening the door for the storm's heavier rain and damaging winds to strike South Florida, then continue up the Southeast coast.

An outside possibility also exists that Emily keeps heading in a westward fashion, passing by South Florida and reaching the Gulf of Mexico.

With the exact track of Emily for this weekend not set in stone, all residents along the Southeast coast should check back with AccuWeather.com for the latest updates.

[cycloneye]

12z Tropical Models.



Uploaded by imageshack.us

[SouthFloridawx]

Recon reports would suggest that Emily barely qualifies as having an LLC. Just a very tiny, weak vortex was all they could find. No low-level flow into the center for the most part. It's very nearly just a sharp wave.

Yep, thats what is probably allowing the system to take a ore westerly track as well..uts strange because the mid levels look real good but the low level has seemingly struggled to get its act together.

Well if it doesn't get it's act together soon, shear is going to increase more in the next day and won't allow the system to get any better organized. They could end up downgrading in the future and this wave might end up in NE Caribbean.

[northjaxpro]

Well, I am beginning to take the BAM, CMC and UKMET models more seriously as time progresses. These models have consistently had Emily on a farther west component in terms of track all week long.

Considering that Emily has had trouble organizing her entire lifespan, and considering that the LLC (or what is left of one) is already offshore the southern coast of Hispaniola, I am inclined to think these models above have the best handle on this situation.

I think there is no doubt now that a shift to the left is coming at 11 a.m. with the projected track. Definitely, there is a high degree of uncertainty with Emily with regards to intensity and track and all interests along the SE U.S. coast really need to pay attention these next few days.