WPAC: SONGDA - Tropical Depression (1102/04W)

[Infdidoll]

Thanks guys! I feel so overeducated and grateful! LOL

[rdhdstpchld]

Is it just wishful thinking or is it creeping ever so slightly further west from Oki? It now is saying 33nm...I'll take however much it's willing to give...but do any of you experts think this trend will continue and if so, how far?

[HURAKAN]

latest

[Macrocane]

I have a friend in Taiwan, I guess he must be already prepared but I've just told him that Songda will track close to him and the outer bands may produce heavy rains as it moved a little more west than expected. Of course I just gave hime my unofficial advice and told him to listen to the authorities.

[RobWESTPACWX]

Is it just wishful thinking or is it creeping ever so slightly further west from Oki? It now is saying 33nm...I'll take however much it's willing to give...but do any of you experts think this trend will continue and if so, how far?

Not only is JTWC moving the track just West of Okinawa, but most of the models look to be taking the track just to the West as well. Not really great news since it will put the island in the worst part of the storm, would be better if the center line moved a little bit farther west though.

[RobWESTPACWX]

[dexterlabio]

Still looking good for me. But the DT number's going down.

TPPN10 PGTW 271220

A. TYPHOON 04W (SONGDA)

B. 27/1132Z

C. 20.4N

D. 123.1E

E. ONE/MTSAT

F. T6.0/6.5/W1.0/24HRS STT: W0.5/06HRS

G. IR/EIR

H. REMARKS: 05A/PBO IRREG EYE/ANMTN. OW EYE W/ LG RING YIELDS
5.0 + BF OF 0.5 RESULTS IN 5.5 DT. MET AND PT ARE BOTH 6.0. MET
AND PT USED TO DETERMINE FT.

I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS:
27/0710Z 19.4N 123.3E TRMM
27/0819Z 19.8N 123.4E SSMI
27/0907Z 19.9N 123.3E SSMS
27/0919Z 19.9N 123.2E WIND
27/1027Z 20.1N 123.2E SSMS


SMITH

[HURAKAN]

Latest

[StormingB81]

New JTWC warning...Now it has it more west..44NM..still within typhoon strength winds

WTPN31 PGTW 271500
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TYPHOON 04W (SONGDA) WARNING NR 030
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
271200Z --- NEAR 20.4N 123.1E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 345 DEGREES AT 11 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 025 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 125 KT, GUSTS 150 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
150 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 20.4N 123.1E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
280000Z --- 23.3N 124.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
145 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
150 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 035 DEG/ 21 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
281200Z --- 26.6N 126.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 165 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
165 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
155 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 045 DEG/ 24 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
290000Z --- 30.0N 130.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
155 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 055 DEG/ 26 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
291200Z --- 32.8N 135.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 070 DEG/ 29 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
301200Z --- 35.7N 149.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
---
REMARKS:
271500Z POSITION NEAR 21.1N 123.4E.
TYPHOON (TY) 04W (SONGDA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 240 NM SOUTH-
SOUTHWEST OF ISHIGAKIJIMA, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AT
11 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT
271200Z IS 38 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 272100Z, 280300Z, 280900Z AND
281500Z.//
NNNN

[StormingB81]

[Chacor]

JMA down to 95kt.

[StormingB81]

Kadena Weather now calling for winds in Okinawa to be sustained at 90 mph with gust up to 120...

[Ptarmigan]

Early to see a once Super Typhoon. Still intense nonetheless.

[Marburg]

Hi, I am new here.

Is this storm still on track for Okinawa and later Fukushima? Is it predicted to be a cat 1 or 2?

Early to see a once Super Typhoon. Still intense nonetheless.

[StormingB81]

Hi, I am new here.

Is this storm still on track for Okinawa and later Fukushima? Is it predicted to be a cat 1 or 2?

Early to see a once Super Typhoon. Still intense nonetheless.

Right now it all depends on how close the eye is to us. We just have to keep watching the updates as they come in

[StormingB81]

By The way Okinawa is now under TCCOR 1

[StormingB81]

New Warning is out..A little further away..Closest Point now 50NM..However still within Typhoon winds range.

WTPN31 PGTW 271500
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TYPHOON 04W (SONGDA) WARNING NR 030
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
271200Z --- NEAR 20.4N 123.1E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 345 DEGREES AT 11 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 025 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 125 KT, GUSTS 150 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
150 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 20.4N 123.1E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
280000Z --- 23.3N 124.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
145 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
150 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 035 DEG/ 21 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
281200Z --- 26.6N 126.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 165 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
165 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
155 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 045 DEG/ 24 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
290000Z --- 30.0N 130.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
155 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 055 DEG/ 26 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
291200Z --- 32.8N 135.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 070 DEG/ 29 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
301200Z --- 35.7N 149.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
---
REMARKS:
271500Z POSITION NEAR 21.1N 123.4E.
TYPHOON (TY) 04W (SONGDA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 240 NM SOUTH-
SOUTHWEST OF ISHIGAKIJIMA, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AT
11 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT
271200Z IS 38 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 272100Z, 280300Z, 280900Z AND
281500Z.//
NNNN

[StormingB81]

[phwxenthusiast]

in other news, PAGASA has released the loop from their doppler station in Baler, Aurora (Eastern Luzon)... they noted it has a blind spot to the west because of Sierra Madre mountains...
first time seen by the public as their radars are not linked on their website...
http://twitpic.com/533mcf



while this is CWB latest image:


http://www.cwb.gov.tw/eng/index.htm

[RobWESTPACWX]

O wow Pat, really! I knew they had radars, and look holy cow they work! LOL I remember last year when Megi was headed to Aparri people were noting that the radar there looked terrible with peoples cloth hanging off of it. I guess what I'm trying to say is great! Glad to see it released to the public and I hope that is a sign of things to come!

Still a very intense system though as we continue to watch it decrease in intensity, I still think Okinawa is going to get socked by it. Just hope no one decides to stray outside during the high winds.