ATL: EMILY - Remnants

[RL3AO]

Forgive my ignorance, I want to make sure I understand -- the location is where the NHC puts the center of circulation... and in the recon wind data, that would be where the wind shift took place, right? If so, what time was the wind shift recorded? Since there is a delay on both the recon data and the satellite images I'd like to line them up and see where that puts the center compared to the convection.

Recon recorded the center location at 1am eastern.

[WeatherEmperor]

The 00Z UKMET takes a weak system across eastern cuba and finally up the west coast of FL. A bit more west compared to the previous run. FWIW....

http://my.sfwmd.gov/sfwmd/common/images ... orm_05.gif

[Cyclenall]

Based on the TWO archive, it looks like they declared it a TS first, bypassing TD status which is the 5th time in a row that has happened and like in the Epac, 5/5. I was just 48 hours off on that prediction!

[Evil Jeremy]

00z UKMET: Florida Keys in 72 hours:
http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/ ... cal072.gif

00z EURO: East of Florida. Hard to tell where it compares to it's previous run, because there are no 12 hour frames, only 24 hour ones.
http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/ ... SLP096.gif

00z CMC: Looses Emily over Cuba, but brings what looks like some low pressure into what looks like the Tampa bay area in about 96 hours from now.
http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/cmctc2.c ... =Animation

[Dave]

000
URNT15 KNHC 030610
AF306 0705A EMILY HDOB 13 20110803
060000 1507N 06711W 8426 01564 0082 +177 +099 206019 020 019 000 00
060030 1508N 06709W 8429 01560 0085 +175 +099 201021 022 020 000 00
060100 1509N 06708W 8428 01559 0086 +174 +099 201020 021 020 000 00
060130 1509N 06706W 8428 01562 0086 +171 +099 201021 021 020 000 00
060200 1510N 06704W 8428 01561 0086 +175 +099 202021 022 019 000 00
060230 1511N 06703W 8428 01561 0084 +175 +099 201021 022 019 000 00
060300 1511N 06701W 8425 01564 0087 +170 +099 203023 025 038 007 00
060330 1512N 06659W 8429 01559 0093 +157 +098 200028 031 032 006 00
060400 1513N 06657W 8429 01560 0098 +151 +095 198028 030 032 008 00
060430 1514N 06656W 8428 01560 0097 +152 +091 196027 030 031 009 00
060500 1514N 06654W 8427 01559 0090 +164 +088 196026 027 031 004 00
060530 1515N 06652W 8434 01555 0101 +152 +087 186030 034 035 005 03
060600 1515N 06651W 8430 01557 0098 +155 +087 172023 026 034 008 03
060630 1515N 06649W 8421 01569 0091 +167 +086 172026 029 032 004 00
060700 1514N 06648W 8425 01568 0093 +166 +086 173032 033 032 003 03
060730 1514N 06646W 8424 01563 0093 +161 +088 172034 035 031 004 00
060800 1513N 06645W 8439 01552 0095 +161 +087 169034 035 029 003 03
060830 1512N 06644W 8427 01560 0092 +165 +087 169032 033 030 001 00
060900 1511N 06643W 8431 01558 0091 +167 +088 170033 034 031 001 00
060930 1510N 06642W 8419 01571 0094 +166 +089 167033 034 030 003 03
$$
;

[Dave]

[Evil Jeremy]

This storm continues to confuse. Despite the models currently showing recurve, some still say Florida is at risk of being hit. The models fail to pick up on the continued westward movement, and the NHC is unwilling to diverge from the models greatly. Something is going to have to give soon. What are we seeing that the models aren't or vice versa?

[Dave]

000
URNT15 KNHC 030620
AF306 0705A EMILY HDOB 14 20110803
061000 1509N 06640W 8428 01563 0092 +167 +090 169033 034 028 001 00
061030 1509N 06639W 8429 01564 0092 +169 +090 170033 033 029 000 00
061100 1508N 06637W 8429 01560 0090 +172 +091 172031 032 032 000 00
061130 1508N 06636W 8425 01567 0091 +171 +091 174030 031 032 001 00
061200 1508N 06634W 8425 01566 0093 +170 +092 166030 032 032 000 00
061230 1507N 06633W 8436 01557 0093 +170 +092 164030 031 033 000 00
061300 1507N 06631W 8425 01568 0092 +172 +092 164030 031 032 000 00
061330 1507N 06630W 8428 01564 0092 +172 +092 165031 031 032 000 00
061400 1506N 06628W 8429 01566 0095 +170 +093 165030 030 031 002 00
061430 1506N 06627W 8428 01567 0100 +167 +093 165029 030 029 000 00
061500 1505N 06625W 8424 01575 0100 +168 +093 166029 030 028 000 03
061530 1506N 06624W 8431 01570 0100 +175 +093 162030 030 /// /// 03
061600 1507N 06623W 8428 01572 0099 +174 +094 158029 029 /// /// 03
061630 1508N 06625W 8436 01562 0096 +170 +094 157029 030 027 002 03
061700 1510N 06626W 8426 01569 0098 +167 +093 157030 030 030 001 00
061730 1511N 06628W 8428 01570 0096 +169 +092 156030 031 032 000 00
061800 1512N 06629W 8428 01568 0096 +170 +092 156031 031 032 000 00
061830 1514N 06631W 8428 01567 0094 +170 +092 155031 031 034 001 00
061900 1515N 06632W 8426 01568 0090 +174 +092 155032 034 035 003 00
061930 1516N 06633W 8427 01561 0095 +162 +092 155037 037 034 006 00
$$
;

[Florida1118]

Looks like the cone might need to be shifted a tad west? I think that and her motion would result in a shift west, but hopefully leaving Tampa out of it

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

There looks to be quite a bit of uncertainty with the track...quite a spread with the models
from west to east based on swfmd plots...South Florida may get tons of rain or may be
very dry due to Emily...tough call...Right now we can only hope Hispaniola does not
have a major flooding problem from it...I still agree with the current NHC thinking...that
it goes East of FL...but things do change so we'll see

[Florida1118]

This storm continues to confuse. Despite the models currently showing recurve, some still say Florida is at risk of being hit. The models fail to pick up on the continued westward movement, and the NHC is unwilling to diverge from the models greatly. Something is going to have to give soon. What are we seeing that the models aren't or vice versa?

I think the models are just not getting the westward motion of her being weak...I not seeing how they insist on she is already going NW and will go N in 12-24hours, I just dont see that happening at this time. The NHC probably wants more of a westward trend in the models, because they said in the 11pm ADV that they were going to ly east of model guidence, likely to make sure the models werent just flopping a bit East. just my imput

[Dave]

[Dave]

000
URNT15 KNHC 030630
AF306 0705A EMILY HDOB 15 20110803
062000 1518N 06635W 8434 01555 0107 +144 +090 156032 035 038 016 00
062030 1519N 06636W 8431 01555 0109 +136 +086 149033 036 042 030 00
062100 1520N 06637W 8425 01564 0105 +144 +082 155029 031 045 014 00
062130 1522N 06639W 8414 01573 0096 +158 +080 160031 034 031 010 00
062200 1523N 06640W 8456 01531 0097 +155 +081 155035 036 029 010 00
062230 1524N 06642W 8423 01563 0104 +139 +080 152037 038 039 019 00
062300 1526N 06643W 8425 01561 0104 +142 +079 151036 036 039 020 00
062330 1527N 06644W 8417 01569 0101 +148 +077 148032 033 043 015 00
062400 1529N 06646W 8440 01543 0103 +145 +077 153034 035 036 012 00
062430 1530N 06647W 8427 01562 0103 +144 +076 162033 034 034 016 03
062500 1531N 06649W 8429 01557 0101 +144 +076 168034 035 044 019 00
062530 1532N 06650W 8436 01547 0093 +159 +076 165031 033 048 016 00
062600 1534N 06652W 8429 01558 0098 +155 +075 170030 031 036 007 03
062630 1535N 06653W 8433 01553 0100 +150 +075 176031 033 038 008 03
062700 1537N 06654W 8428 01557 0086 +170 +074 178026 027 037 004 00
062730 1538N 06655W 8423 01561 0084 +171 +074 180026 027 036 003 00
062800 1539N 06657W 8430 01555 0082 +173 +075 185025 027 038 004 00
062830 1540N 06658W 8427 01555 0091 +156 +076 181028 030 037 008 00
062900 1542N 06659W 8436 01550 0081 +174 +075 190023 024 036 002 00
062930 1543N 06700W 8425 01556 0086 +165 +074 189024 026 036 009 00
$$
;

[WxEnthus]

Using lat/long to match up the center recorded by recon with the grid on a floater satellite image from approximately the same time (off by 15 minutes) this is where it appears (imo) the center of circulation is, marked by a white dot. While it's not directly under the center of that big ball of convection, it doesn't appear to be displaced as far west either, once times are matched up. Of course none of this is official, just my best guess using the tools I have at hand!



-------------
The preceding is an NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[Dave]

A variation of the Alpha pattern...the Sinisodal Alpha pattern....j/k. It's late.

[Dave]

000
URNT15 KNHC 030640
AF306 0705A EMILY HDOB 16 20110803
063000 1544N 06702W 8423 01561 0086 +166 +074 193023 028 034 009 00
063030 1545N 06703W 8429 01552 0090 +157 +074 183021 022 025 008 00
063100 1547N 06704W 8424 01558 0088 +160 +072 183021 021 032 008 00
063130 1548N 06706W 8441 01541 0081 +176 +071 187019 020 028 008 00
063200 1549N 06707W 8425 01557 0081 +175 +070 192014 016 017 003 00
063230 1550N 06708W 8420 01565 0083 +173 +071 177014 015 027 004 00
063300 1552N 06709W 8441 01546 0084 +176 +073 177016 017 022 002 00
063330 1553N 06711W 8424 01560 0084 +175 +074 185015 016 020 000 00
063400 1554N 06712W 8426 01561 0082 +175 +074 183017 017 017 000 00
063430 1555N 06713W 8434 01552 0083 +175 +075 187016 017 017 000 00
063500 1557N 06714W 8429 01557 0083 +174 +075 181015 017 019 001 00
063530 1558N 06716W 8427 01555 0082 +173 +075 182014 015 015 000 00
063600 1559N 06717W 8428 01556 0082 +172 +075 181014 014 012 000 00
063630 1600N 06718W 8429 01553 0080 +174 +075 181013 013 014 001 00
063700 1602N 06720W 8425 01558 0079 +175 +076 173014 015 012 001 00
063730 1603N 06721W 8428 01553 0076 +176 +076 175017 017 012 000 00
063800 1604N 06722W 8430 01551 0078 +175 +076 179017 017 011 000 00
063830 1605N 06723W 8425 01555 0075 +175 +076 174018 019 014 000 00
063900 1607N 06725W 8432 01548 0076 +173 +076 183016 017 014 000 00
063930 1608N 06726W 8426 01551 0079 +170 +075 181017 017 013 000 03
$$
;

[dwsqos2]

I am going to be called insensitive for this, but the western tracks looks totally boring in terms of potential intensity of the storm. The more eastern tracks would provide eventually provide vastly more favorable upper level conditions. I mean if you want to see a surface trough, then hope for the western tracks but otherwise meh.

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[Dave]

[Dave]

000
URNT15 KNHC 030650
AF306 0705A EMILY HDOB 17 20110803
064000 1609N 06728W 8430 01546 0076 +171 +075 185016 016 016 001 00
064030 1609N 06729W 8422 01555 0074 +174 +075 189015 016 015 002 00
064100 1610N 06731W 8434 01543 0072 +175 +075 188016 016 018 001 03
064130 1611N 06732W 8426 01550 0074 +175 +075 188014 015 012 002 00
064200 1611N 06734W 8432 01545 0073 +175 +075 188015 015 015 001 00
064230 1612N 06736W 8425 01548 0071 +174 +075 189016 018 016 001 00
064300 1612N 06737W 8430 01543 0070 +174 +076 200016 016 017 001 00
064330 1613N 06739W 8428 01545 0066 +177 +075 204015 015 015 001 00
064400 1613N 06741W 8425 01548 0065 +178 +075 207013 013 020 000 03
064430 1614N 06742W 8425 01543 0062 +179 +075 218013 013 020 000 03
064500 1615N 06744W 8423 01545 0060 +182 +076 224012 012 021 001 03
064530 1616N 06745W 8426 01539 0057 +185 +076 217012 012 024 002 00
064600 1617N 06746W 8429 01542 0057 +182 +076 210010 012 022 002 03
064630 1618N 06747W 8430 01534 0053 +185 +076 212010 012 025 001 00
064700 1619N 06749W 8428 01537 0052 +185 +077 219010 010 024 002 00
064730 1620N 06750W 8425 01540 0051 +186 +077 211006 007 021 001 03
064800 1621N 06752W 8428 01535 0049 +188 +078 192001 002 016 001 03
064830 1621N 06753W 8426 01536 0046 +194 +078 063005 006 008 001 03
064900 1622N 06755W 8422 01539 0042 +199 +078 049008 008 009 000 00
064930 1623N 06756W 8429 01536 0043 +200 +080 041011 013 010 000 00
$$
;

[Dave]