ATL: IRENE - Remnants - Discussion

[funster]

some of the far outter cloud bands are starting to approach the florida coast. Hope it gets breezy soon, its so hot out!

Shouldn't it heat up for the Florida coast with offshore winds? Maybe even records temps with awful hot days that make many humans and animals living in Florida very uncomfortable and sad?

[WilmingtonSandbar]

I think, if the trend holds, in 2-3 more updates the CONUS will be out of the track and Canadian interests will follow suite shortly after.


Not a forecast or anything. Just opinion.

[CrazyC83]

Intensity seems to have flatlined for now. Probably won't strengthen much next 8-12 hours, but maybe tonight it will make a serious run.

[gatorcane]

lots of wobbling the past few hours as it makes the turn.

You can see what I mean by checking out this VIS floater loop:

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/loop-vis.html

not soo much actually.. the eye is moving alot since its tilted. recon says its still wnw about 290 to 295.

Last wobble was a big wobble almost due west, maybe 275-280 or so. She's wobbling like a spinning top.

[DonWrk]

Wow Cat 4?

[drezee]

direction between last two recon fixes:

Azimuth from point 2 to point 1 = 302.49°

NHC is spot on with the 305...

[littlevince]

000
URNT15 KNHC 241512
AF303 1409A IRENE HDOB 38 20110824
150230 2253N 07318W 6970 03033 //// +090 //// 137084 085 /// /// 05
150300 2254N 07317W 6967 03041 //// +089 //// 136082 083 /// /// 05
150330 2255N 07316W 6967 03046 //// +087 //// 136082 082 /// /// 05
150400 2256N 07315W 6967 03049 //// +081 //// 137084 085 /// /// 05
150430 2257N 07313W 6962 03058 //// +080 //// 136080 083 /// /// 05
150500 2258N 07312W 6971 03049 //// +084 //// 137081 082 /// /// 05
150530 2259N 07311W 6966 03062 //// +088 //// 138081 082 /// /// 05
150600 2301N 07309W 6943 03078 //// +082 //// 139080 083 /// /// 05
150630 2302N 07308W 6988 03029 //// +079 //// 144089 094 /// /// 05
150700 2303N 07307W 6948 03079 //// +087 //// 143092 092 /// /// 05
150730 2304N 07305W 6966 03062 //// +085 //// 140085 088 /// /// 05
150800 2305N 07304W 6967 03065 //// +088 //// 137084 086 /// /// 05
150830 2306N 07303W 6967 03066 //// +094 //// 140085 086 /// /// 05
150900 2308N 07301W 6974 03063 //// +088 //// 141087 089 /// /// 05
150930 2309N 07300W 6970 03071 //// +092 //// 140083 085 /// /// 05
151000 2310N 07259W 6961 03083 //// +088 //// 141080 081 /// /// 05
151030 2311N 07257W 6968 03080 //// +085 //// 139079 081 /// /// 05
151100 2312N 07256W 6969 03082 //// +087 //// 139077 079 /// /// 05
151130 2314N 07255W 6965 03091 //// +087 //// 140071 073 /// /// 05
151200 2315N 07253W 6969 03089 //// +080 //// 134068 069 /// /// 05
$$
;

[Steve H.]

Agree GCANE, at the NASA visible take loop the last 10 frames. 280ish.

[gatorcane]

direction between last two recon fixes:

Azimuth from point 2 to point 1 = 302.49°

NHC is spot on with the 305...

Latest frame from GOES floater came in. Looks like a petty decent WNW wobble to me, probably a big NNW wobble coming...

[sandyb]

getting a little better feeling in eastern nc......

I know the feeling. I remember how I felt when the then Cat 5 Rita forecast changed from just southwest of me to about 30 miles east of me. Could have lost the house and everything in it if that track hadn't shifted east. Let's hope the east shift continues.

Yes, as I can see the Cape Lookout Light from my house.......even a 2 or 3 can lead to terrible flooding here.

i have a friend who works at the cape he said they are gonna start getting ready to shut down the cabins today

[SEASON_CANCELED]

wobbles! WNW. No bueno

[Aric Dunn]

direction between last two recon fixes:

Azimuth from point 2 to point 1 = 302.49°

NHC is spot on with the 305...

Latest frame from GOES floater came in. Looks like a petty decent WNW wobble to me, probably a big NNW wobble coming...

This is the time when all the wobbles count.. any closer to florida and TS force winds are on shore.. right now they are forecast to be only 15 to 20 miles offshore.. thats extremely easy for a hurricane to wobble

[gatorcane]

Aric, what do you make of the last big WNW wobble, could it be something more? When I look at it ont the VIS loop, almost like it made a turn, even if temporary?

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/loop-vis.html

[tolakram]

That loop is horribly slow to update. How about recon?

[tolakram]

or a loop that's a bit faster to update

http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/ge ... map=latlon

hitting right on the 5am forecast point.

[hurricaneCW]

I'm sure it's just a small wobble, it'll probably wobble to north or nnw soon, those wobbles could be significant by the time it gets to N.C. and north though.

[eastcoastFL]

was a pretty big wobble

[tolakram]

The real test, rather than the wobbles, is the path through the islands. At the end of the day we should know if the short term track is correct (and it almost always is of late) or too far east.

[Aric Dunn]

Aric, what do you make of the last big WNW wobble, could it be something more? When I look at it ont the VIS loop, almost like it made a turn, even if temporary?

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/loop-vis.html

I mean its going to wobble for sure.. how much and how long is key for the TS winds on florida coast.


the ridge has built in today.. how long will it last... its the question..'


vs.. last night

[Stormcenter]

Well I guess this adds more fuel to the fire for those who believe (like myself) that you should take with a grain of salt "any" model output that is 8-10 days out.
Back then they all had what eventually became Irene going into the GOM and making landfall from central GOM to the west coast of Fl. per their early runs. Even now we have what we once thought was for sure a U.S. landfalling hurricane per all models just yesterday to what "may" turn out to be a major fish storm. Though I still think the jury is out on that call for sure even with the recent model runs. JMHO