ATL: EMILY - Remnants

[Ptarmigan]

Wow, CDO getting really impressive. The strongest it's had yet.

http://i189.photobucket.com/albums/z174 ... 030145.jpg

Looks like it is getting better organized since it is more circular.

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[ozonepete]

Don't know for sure, but I'm just sayin', the convection to the west of Emily is really blowing off to the north now. That often indicates a pretty good turn to the north is coming.

[HURAKAN]

Don't let the satellite images fool you.

Buoy 42059 ... 15.1ºN 67.5ºW

42059 - MARITIME-buoy
Wednesday Aug. 3 - 2:50 UTC
Air Temperature: 82°F
Dewpoint: 78°F
Wind: S at 7 mph
gusting to 7
Pressure: 1008.7 mb
Weather: Clear
Wave Height: 8 ft
Sea Surface Temp: 84.2°F

[Ptarmigan]

Don't let the satellite images fool you.

Buoy 42059 ... 15.1ºN 67.5ºW

42059 - MARITIME-buoy
Wednesday Aug. 3 - 2:50 UTC
Air Temperature: 82°F
Dewpoint: 78°F
Wind: S at 7 mph
gusting to 7
Pressure: 1008.7 mb
Weather: Clear
Wave Height: 8 ft
Sea Surface Temp: 84.2°F

True. Satellite does not tell everything.

[cycloneye]

Recent ASCAT pass between 9:00 PM-10:00 PM shows a open trough rather than a well defined circulation. What a weird system this has been since it left Africa.



Uploaded by imageshack.us

[ozonepete]

Don't let the satellite images fool you.

Buoy 42059 ... 15.1ºN 67.5ºW

42059 - MARITIME-buoy
Wednesday Aug. 3 - 2:50 UTC
Air Temperature: 82°F
Dewpoint: 78°F
Wind: S at 7 mph
gusting to 7
Pressure: 1008.7 mb
Weather: Clear
Wave Height: 8 ft
Sea Surface Temp: 84.2°F

Yes, my friend, but that buoy is on the weaker side. The strongest winds have been to the north. Also, I was more just talking about the intense squalls in the CDO, and that it looks like it will expand over southern and especially western PR very soon. I'm thinking flooding. I mean, wow, look at the size of this rapidly expanding convection.

[ozonepete]

Recent ASCAT pass between 9:00 PM-10:00 PM shows a open trough rather than a well defined circulation. What a weird system this has been since it left Africa.



Uploaded by imageshack.us

Hey cyclone,
I think it's the second number that indicates the time. I believe it was taken at 08/02 at 18Z.

[Bocadude85]

Looks like maybe she is starting to make her turn?

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/flash-rb.html

Nevermind looks like the convection is starting to expand west now..

[cycloneye]

Hey cyclone,
I think it's the second number that indicates the time. I believe it was taken at 08/02 at 18Z.

The numbers I see are 0124-0125-0126-0127

[Evil Jeremy]

00z GFS running. Through 24 hours, both the storm and ridge are stronger than on the previous run, but Emily is following the same track.

EDIT: Wrong thread, whoops!

[Aric Dunn]

the south winds at that bouy means the center is farther west than the NHC position

which means its south of the forecast track.. again ..

[viberama]

Hi I'm new here but I've been lurking for a while:

Still looks to me like a Westward direction but it has to curve pretty soon doesn't it?

[Evil Jeremy]

00z GFS running. Through 24 hours, both the storm and ridge are stronger than on the previous run, but Emily is following the same track.

36 hours out: West and weaker of the 18z. It makes sense that it's weaker because it goes over more mountains.

[Evil Jeremy]

Looks like maybe she is starting to make her turn?

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/flash-rb.html

Nevermind looks like the convection is starting to expand west now..

Could be an illusion. As disorganized as this is, I would not trust satellite for movement right now. Recon will tell the tale.

[stormreader]

Recent ASCAT pass between 9:00 PM-10:00 PM shows a open trough rather than a well defined circulation. What a weird system this has been since it left Africa.



Uploaded by imageshack.us

Well there you go. Sort of like a Wave-Storm a hybrid. Varying back and forth between one and the other (even with the powerful convective bursts). That being the case I think we would have to expect a more westerly move with the system.

[SouthDadeFish]

I'm not sure if this thing even has a closed circulation anymore. That ASCAT didn't even hint at any west winds...

[stormhunter7]

18zHWRF 84hr forecast... waiting to see what the 00Z shift looks like... comparing! http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/NCOMAGWEB/appcontroller?prevpage=Param&MainPage=index&image=&page=TropParam&cycle=08%2F02%2F2011+18UTC&rname=UPPER+AIR+PARMS&pname=850vor_500ht_200wd&model=hwrf-nested&storm=emily05l&cat=TROPICAL+GUIDANCE&fcast=Loop+All&prevArea=emily05l&currKey=storm&returnToModel=&returnToTropical=&imageSize=M heres the 18z loop

[hurricanefloyd5]

the south winds at that bouy means the center is farther west than the NHC position

which means its south of the forecast track.. again ..

What dose this mean if this is true? Dose that mean the track would shift over florida or close to the west coast of florida aric?

[NDG]

So far, it looks like 0z gfs is a little west from previous runs.

[TwisterFanatic]

GFS further south this time, hugging the Cuban coast like the NAM did.