ATL: EMILY - Remnants

[ozonepete]

Wow, CDO getting really impressive. The strongest it's had yet.

[AdamFirst]

11 PM Disco:

OVERALL THE ENVIRONMENT
APPEARS FAVORABLE FOR SOME CONTINUED STRENGTHENING UNTIL THE
CYCLONE REACHES HISPANIOLA IN ABOUT 24 HOURS...AND THE OFFICIAL
FORECAST HAS BEEN ADJUSTED UPWARD A BIT IN AGREEMENT WITH THE IVCN
INTENSITY CONSENSUS THROUGH THAT TIME.

___


THE BIGGEST CHANGE IN THE GUIDANCE FOR THIS CYCLE IS THAT
THE GFDL AND HWRF NOW SHOW A LITTLE MORE RIDGING EAST OF EMILY LATE
IN THE PERIOD AND HAVE SHIFTED THEIR TRACKS WESTWARD...ESPECIALLY
AT DAYS 3 AND 4. THROUGH THE FIRST 36 HOURS...THE NEW NHC FORECAST
IS ALONG THE OLD TRACK...BUT A LITTLE FASTER AS IT TRENDS TOWARD
THE FASTER MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS. FROM 48 TO 96 HOURS...THE NEW
NHC FORECAST HAS BEEN ADJUSTED A LITTLE TO THE LEFT OF THE PREVIOUS
PACKAGE...AND NOW LIES TO THE RIGHT OF THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS.

[Evil Jeremy]

From the Discussion:

THE OFFICIAL
FORECAST HAS BEEN ADJUSTED UPWARD A LITTLE FROM THE PREVIOUS
ADVISORY...BUT REMAINS BELOW THE GUIDANCE GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY IN
HOW EMILY WILL FARE AFTER LAND INTERACTION.

THE BIGGEST CHANGE IN THE GUIDANCE FOR THIS CYCLE IS THAT
THE GFDL AND HWRF NOW SHOW A LITTLE MORE RIDGING EAST OF EMILY LATE
IN THE PERIOD AND HAVE SHIFTED THEIR TRACKS WESTWARD...ESPECIALLY
AT DAYS 3 AND 4. THROUGH THE FIRST 36 HOURS...THE NEW NHC FORECAST
IS ALONG THE OLD TRACK...BUT A LITTLE FASTER AS IT TRENDS TOWARD
THE FASTER MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS. FROM 48 TO 96 HOURS...THE NEW
NHC FORECAST HAS BEEN ADJUSTED A LITTLE TO THE LEFT OF THE PREVIOUS
PACKAGE...AND NOW LIES TO THE RIGHT OF THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS.
GIVEN THE LARGE CYCLE-TO-CYCLE VARIABILITY SEEN IN THE TRACK
GUIDANCE...UNCERTAINTY IN THE TRACK FORECAST REMAINS LARGER THAN
USUAL BEYOND 48 HOURS.

The word "uncertainty" returns to the Discussion.

[SFLcane]

Think FL is still definitely in play.

I agree.. Looks like there was a small westward shift in some of the 00z models.

[ozonepete]

Still looks like it's slowed down again. Or I guess that's due to the LLC getting back under the MLC again for the nth time.

[cycloneye]

TROPICAL STORM EMILY DISCUSSION NUMBER 6
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052011
1100 PM AST TUE AUG 02 2011

THE AREA OF COLD CLOUD TOPS HAS EXPANDED OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS IN
A CDO-LIKE PATTERN...HOWEVER A 2157 UTC SSMIS PASS SUGGESTED THAT
THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER REMAINS DISPLACED TO THE WEST OF THE DEEPEST
CONVECTION. DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES WERE 3.0...45
KT...FROM TAFB AND SAB AT 00Z...THAT THAT WILL REMAIN THE INTENSITY
FOR THIS ADVISORY PACKAGE. ANOTHER AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE
HUNTER AIRCRAFT IS SCHEDULED TO INVESTIGATE EMILY OVERNIGHT.
UW-CIMSS SATELLITE ANALYSIS SHOWS ABOUT 12 KT OF WESTERLY SHEAR
OVER EMILY...WHICH IS CONSISTENT WITH THE TILTED STRUCTURE OF THE
CYCLONE AND THE LOCATION OF A MID-LEVEL CIRCULATION SEEN IN VELOCITY
DATA FROM THE SAN JUAN DOPPLER RADAR. OVERALL THE ENVIRONMENT
APPEARS FAVORABLE FOR SOME CONTINUED STRENGTHENING UNTIL THE
CYCLONE REACHES HISPANIOLA IN ABOUT 24 HOURS...AND THE OFFICIAL
FORECAST HAS BEEN ADJUSTED UPWARD A BIT IN AGREEMENT WITH THE IVCN
INTENSITY CONSENSUS THROUGH THAT TIME. IF EMILY SURVIVES ITS TRIP
ACROSS THE HIGH TERRAIN OF HISPANIOLA...THE ENVIRONMENT APPEARS
SUPPORTIVE OF RE-INTENSIFICATION LATE IN THE PERIOD. THE OFFICIAL
FORECAST HAS BEEN ADJUSTED UPWARD A LITTLE FROM THE PREVIOUS
ADVISORY...BUT REMAINS BELOW THE GUIDANCE GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY IN
HOW EMILY WILL FARE AFTER LAND INTERACTION.

THE CENTER HAS BEEN DIFFICULT TO LOCATE THIS EVENING GIVEN THE LACK
OF AIRCRAFT AND MICROWAVE DATA. BASED ON THE ABOVE-MENTIONED SSMIS
PASS...THE CENTER IS ASSUMED TO BE WEST OF THE COLDEST CLOUD TOPS...
YIELDING AN UNCERTAIN INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE OF 285/12...TOWARD THE
WEST-NORTHWEST. THE SYNOPTIC REASONING REMAINS UNCHANGED...AS A
MID-LEVEL TROUGH WILL REACH MAXIMUM AMPLITUDE OVER THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC IN THE NEXT 24 HOURS...ALLOWING EMILY TO TURN
NORTHWESTWARD AND MOVE ACROSS HISPANIOLA AND INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN
BAHAMAS IN THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS. AFTER THE TROUGH LIFTS OUT A
MID-LEVEL WEAKNESS IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN
ATLANTIC THROUGH THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD...AND EMILY SHOULD
TURN NORTHWARD INTO THE WEAKNESS AND EVENTUALLY ACCELERATE
NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD BY DAY 5 AS A RIDGE REBUILDS TO THE SOUTHEAST
OF THE CYCLONE AND A BROAD TROUGH MOVES INTO THE EASTERN UNITED
STATES. THE BIGGEST CHANGE IN THE GUIDANCE FOR THIS CYCLE IS THAT
THE GFDL AND HWRF NOW SHOW A LITTLE MORE RIDGING EAST OF EMILY LATE
IN THE PERIOD AND HAVE SHIFTED THEIR TRACKS WESTWARD...ESPECIALLY
AT DAYS 3 AND 4. THROUGH THE FIRST 36 HOURS...THE NEW NHC FORECAST
IS ALONG THE OLD TRACK...BUT A LITTLE FASTER AS IT TRENDS TOWARD
THE FASTER MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS. FROM 48 TO 96 HOURS...THE NEW
NHC FORECAST HAS BEEN ADJUSTED A LITTLE TO THE LEFT OF THE PREVIOUS
PACKAGE...AND NOW LIES TO THE RIGHT OF THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS.
GIVEN THE LARGE CYCLE-TO-CYCLE VARIABILITY SEEN IN THE TRACK
GUIDANCE...UNCERTAINTY IN THE TRACK FORECAST REMAINS LARGER THAN
USUAL BEYOND 48 HOURS.

BASED ON THE INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED WITH THE NEW TRACK FORECAST
...A TROPICAL STORM WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE SOUTHEAST
BAHAMAS AND TURKS AND CAICOS.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 03/0300Z 16.2N 66.7W 45 KT 50 MPH
12H 03/1200Z 17.0N 68.4W 50 KT 60 MPH
24H 04/0000Z 18.4N 70.5W 55 KT 65 MPH...INLAND
36H 04/1200Z 20.2N 72.6W 35 KT 40 MPH...OVER WATER
48H 05/0000Z 22.0N 74.4W 35 KT 40 MPH
72H 06/0000Z 26.0N 77.5W 45 KT 50 MPH
96H 07/0000Z 29.5N 78.5W 55 KT 65 MPH
120H 08/0000Z 33.0N 76.0W 65 KT 75 MPH

$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN

[Aric Dunn]

really "assumed" ... lol at least they mention its an estimate.. again mostly for continuity with their forecast..i imagine

THE CENTER HAS BEEN DIFFICULT TO LOCATE THIS EVENING GIVEN THE LACK
OF AIRCRAFT AND MICROWAVE DATA. BASED ON THE ABOVE-MENTIONED SSMIS
PASS...THE CENTER IS ASSUMED TO BE WEST OF THE COLDEST CLOUD TOPS...
YIELDING AN UNCERTAIN INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE OF 285/12...TOWARD THE
WEST-NORTHWEST.

[SunnyThoughts]

Yeah, "assumed" They are waiting just as we are, for recon to tell us where the center is...in order to tell which way its moving, as well as the speed of which its moving. I just loaded up the IR and watched a loop. It looks as though the entire system is expanding in all directions..but as a whole, I can't see that its moving much at all. Just my opinion as to what I'm watching.

[Aric Dunn]

so it should be moving NW now... from what their track says... hmmmm... yeah about that.. lol

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphic ... e#contents

[SunnyThoughts]

Still looks mostly west to me, for what its worth. Maybe a hint of North of due west. If this actually shows CLOSE to the LLC that is lol

[SouthDadeFish]

Looks like the LLC is trying to redevelop a little to the SE there under the deep convection. So glad we have recon to clear all this up.

[Aric Dunn]

Still looks mostly west to me, for what its worth. Maybe a hint of North of due west. If this actually shows CLOSE to the LLC that is lol

oh its close.. they say its just a tab west of that convection.. well its all straight west mostly.. 275 ish

[NDG]

I hope there is notice that the eastern half of FL is still within the the cone of error in the 3-5 day range, and if NHC's beloved concensus TVCN model at least stays in the same track in the next 06z run as the 0z run, I would expect that they will move the cone and or track a little westward once again.

[bamajammer4eva]

so it should be moving NW now... from what their track says... hmmmm... yeah about that.. lol

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphic ... e#contents

Well if you look close on PR radar, there is a naked swirl almost due south of the western tip of PR headed wnw-nw towards SE DR. Maybe thats what they used? Of course there is a much more discernible spin southeast of that in deep convection

[ozonepete]

The western side of the circulation envelope looks like it's hitting a wall on the IR satellite.

[ozonepete]

Also, the CDO is definitely expanding northwestward. The intense convection on the northwestern edge looks like it will clip western Puerto Rico or even worse. I hope you guys are ready out there.


The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[dixiebreeze]

While we wait for Recon on Emily, look what's coming up next:

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/eumet/eatl/rb-l.jpg

[HurricaneWarning92]

yeah i noticed that too

[HurricaneWarning92]

They shifted the forecast track a bit to the left from the previous advisory, but i believe they narrowed the cone a little too. Now Miami is right on the edge of the cone.

[ozonepete]

YEah. And there's two behind it!

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