ATL: IRENE - Remnants - Discussion

[littlevince]

[Stormcenter]

These troughs/fronts that keep coming through are almost Fall like in strength so it would not
surprise me if one iof them would be strong enough to sweep Irene out to sea. But personally
I'm not ready to say that will happen. There is still way too much time for things to change.
As always this is just my opinion.

[Frank2]

Looks like Irene is now on a 310 or greater track:

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/flash-vis.html

good news - hopefully it'll miss the entire US EC (we'll see)...

Frank

[wxman57]

12Z tropical model runs are out. The only model now taking Irene into the Outer Banks is the GFDL.

[Lowpressure]

Looks like Irene is now on a 310 or greater track:

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/flash-vis.html

good news - hopefully it'll miss the entire US EC (we'll see)...

Frank

Still looks like stair stepping to me anyway.

[Aric Dunn]

The mid and upper level circ's are definitely tilted. recon fixes are showing the low level center partially under the left side of the visible eye. so the left eyewall we see in satellite is actually where the low level center is.

Recon not even in the center and 955mb at 39kts. Entering westrn eyewall.

there are 2 planes out there and from the previous passes you can see the tilt.

[RL3AO]

145
URNT15 KNHC 241402
AF303 1409A IRENE HDOB 31 20110824
135230 2329N 07509W 6975 03114 //// +080 //// 050042 045 /// /// 05
135300 2328N 07509W 6966 03122 //// +089 //// 051041 042 /// /// 05
135330 2326N 07509W 6967 03122 //// +089 //// 054041 042 /// /// 05
135400 2324N 07508W 6967 03116 //// +085 //// 055041 041 /// /// 05
135430 2322N 07508W 6969 03116 //// +085 //// 054041 042 /// /// 05
135500 2320N 07507W 6967 03116 //// +085 //// 054042 042 /// /// 05
135530 2318N 07507W 6967 03114 //// +085 //// 051042 043 /// /// 05
135600 2316N 07507W 6968 03112 //// +085 //// 051043 043 /// /// 05
135630 2314N 07506W 6969 03111 //// +085 //// 049042 042 /// /// 05
135700 2313N 07506W 6967 03111 //// +084 //// 047043 043 /// /// 05
135730 2311N 07505W 6965 03111 //// +085 //// 042044 045 /// /// 05
135800 2309N 07505W 6967 03106 //// +090 //// 041043 043 /// /// 05
135830 2307N 07505W 6967 03105 //// +087 //// 040042 043 /// /// 05
135900 2305N 07504W 6971 03096 //// +085 //// 038043 044 /// /// 05
135930 2303N 07504W 6963 03106 //// +089 //// 039043 044 /// /// 05
140000 2301N 07503W 6971 03094 //// +090 //// 038042 043 /// /// 05
140030 2259N 07503W 6966 03099 //// +085 //// 038041 042 /// /// 05
140100 2257N 07503W 6967 03095 //// +088 //// 037041 041 /// /// 05
140130 2255N 07502W 6971 03089 //// +089 //// 033041 042 /// /// 05
140200 2253N 07502W 6967 03094 //// +085 //// 032041 041 /// /// 05
$$
;

[Frank2]

There are 2 planes out there and from the previous passes you can see the tilt....

That might be the LLC/MLC issue that I happened to notice on Monday (I was off line due to illness yesterday)...

Apparently it's not been vertically stacked all along...

Frank

[Lannes]

Wow, woke up this morning to another eastward shift. I can't believe that the USA SHOULD be spared another USA landfall. Yea, it's going to be close, but I just can't believe how lucky we've been throughout the years....... One thing for sure, I will never ever trust GFS long range model forecasts again, or any of them for that matter, as they completely blew this one big time!

Not sure why you are thinking the US should be spared when the NHC and the mornings GFS, HWRF and Euro runs all forcast a potentially devastating landfall in the North East still Whilst the GDFL actually makes landfall in NC still. Are there any models out there not forecasting a US hit somewhere up the east coast?

I think the idea is that the models continue to trend eastward towards an out-to-sea solution, and there is no reason to say it won't continue, especially since Irene keeps missing the forecast points to the north. What was unthinkable yesterday (a US miss) is becoming more and more likely with every passing hour. The trend may reverse, but there is no sign of it happening, and with more and more data being fed into the models, a recurve solution is suggested by a greater number of them.

I will say the 12Z runs will be critical...another eastward jog will even more likely result in a US landfall being averted.

And will reinforce my wife rolling her eyes at me when I mention anything about a storm more than 72 hours in advance.

[SouthFloridawx]

The mid and upper level circ's are definitely tilted. recon fixes are showing the low level center partially under the left side of the visible eye. so the left eyewall we see in satellite is actually where the low level center is.

Recon not even in the center and 955mb at 39kts. Entering westrn eyewall.

there are 2 planes out there and from the previous passes you can see the tilt.

That could be the reason for the Westward component in the BAMS. It's not aligned with the BAMD or BAMM.

In the short term of course.

[crimi481]

it possible Irene is strong enough to create her own enviornment -and add to strengh of building ridge?


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[tshizzle]

my wife's family owns some property in Bimini - how bad does it look for Bimini on the current track?

[littlevince]

[Bocadude85]

Small jump to the N.. perhaps the NNW motion will start soon?

http://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?lat=26.71004016936886&lon=-80.0408935546875&site=mfl&unit=0&lg=en&FcstType=text

[Aric Dunn]

it possible Irene is strong enough to create her own enviornment -and add to strengh of building ridge?


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well yes technically. I mean Stewart other day mentioned that this could happen. but not sure the exact dynamics but it has to do with the outflow running in to the northerly upper flow. but since its slightly sheared the outflow may not be pushing out in the right direction.

[ConvergenceZone]

12Z tropical model runs are out. The only model now taking Irene into the Outer Banks is the GFDL.

Yep, the eastward trend continues. I bet by tonight it will be forecasted to clear the USA entirely...Might be some high surf though on the east coast as there often is....

[CrazyC83]

12Z tropical model runs are out. The only model now taking Irene into the Outer Banks is the GFDL.

Yep, the eastward trend continues. I bet by tonight it will be forecasted to clear the USA entirely...Might be some high surf though on the east coast as there often is....

Would that send it into Atlantic Canada, or full recurve? Does Bermuda come into play?

[WeatherGuesser]

Media coverage is picking up.

Kind of reinforces the 72 hour window; farther out than that doesn't really get people's attention.

[viberama]

it possible Irene is strong enough to create her own enviornment -and add to strengh of building ridge?


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well yes technically. I mean Stewart other day mentioned that this could happen. but not sure the exact dynamics but it has to do with the outflow running in to the northerly upper flow. but since its slightly sheared the outflow may not be pushing out in the right direction.

I remember reading an article or two about systems creating their own high pressure areas to the North and East of the system which in turn moves it farther west. It's rare but I believe the outflow can do just what you mentioned Aric.

[Nimbus]

I think the only way the track would shift back west is if the first trough split and she pumped up some ridging between her and the second trough. Even in that scenario the second trough would probably arrive in time to keep the eye off the east coast of Florida. There isn't any sounding data suggesting a strengthening ridge is there?