ATL: EMILY - Remnants

[Aric Dunn]

by 66 hours the ridging over the SE expands east more.. interesting.. emily looks like its heading gulf side this run... maybe back over cuba..

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... loop.shtml

[Evil Jeremy]

THE GOVERNMENT OF THE BAHAMAS HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WARNING
FOR THE SOUTHEAST BAHAMAS AND TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS.

[Miami Storm Tracker]

Think FL is still definitely in play.

yes

I know I am spliting hairs so far out, but South Fla?

[cycloneye]

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM EMILY ADVISORY NUMBER 6
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052011
1100 PM AST TUE AUG 02 2011

...EMILY MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD...EXPECTED TO APPROACH HISPANIOLA
ON WEDNESDAY...


SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.2N 66.7W
ABOUT 125 MI...200 KM S OF PONCE PUERTO RICO
ABOUT 265 MI...425 KM SE OF SANTO DOMINGO DOMINICAN REPUBLIC
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE GOVERNMENT OF THE BAHAMAS HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WARNING
FOR THE SOUTHEAST BAHAMAS AND TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* PUERTO RICO...VIEQUES AND CULEBRA
* THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC
* HAITI
* SOUTHEAST BAHAMAS AND TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA IN THE UNITED
STATES...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE
MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
FORECAST OFFICE. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA OUTSIDE
THE UNITED STATES...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL
METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM EMILY WAS
ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR LATITUDE 16.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 66.7 WEST.
EMILY IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 14 MPH...22 KM/H. A
TURN TOWARD THE NORTHWEST WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN FORWARD SPEED IS
EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE
CENTER OF EMILY WILL MOVE ACROSS HISPANIOLA LATE WEDNESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS AND TURKS AND
CAICOS ISLANDS ON THURSDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 50 MPH...85 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE BEFORE THE CENTER REACHES
HISPANIOLA...AND WEAKENING IS EXPECTED AS THE CENTER MOVES OVER THE
HIGH TERRAIN OF THAT ISLAND.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 120 MILES...195 KM
...MAINLY TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF THE CENTER.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1005 MB...29.68 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE OCCURRING OR IMMINENT IN PUERTO
RICO...CULEBRA...AND VIEQUES...AND SHOULD BEGIN TO SPREAD INTO THE
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC AND HAITI ON WEDNESDAY...AND INTO THE SOUTHEAST
BAHAMAS AND TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS BY THURSDAY. TROPICAL STORM
CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS TONIGHT.

RAINFALL...EMILY IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS
OF 4 TO 6 INCHES IN PUERTO RICO...THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...AND HAITI
WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 10 INCHES POSSIBLE. THESE RAINS
COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES IN AREAS
OF MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN. TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES
ARE EXPECTED IN THE SOUTHEAST BAHAMAS AND TURKS AND CAICOS.

STORM SURGE...A STORM SURGE WILL RAISE WATER LEVELS BY 1 TO 2 FEET
ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS IN THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING AREA. NEAR
THE COAST...THE SURGE WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE AND DANGEROUS
WAVES.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...200 AM AST.
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...500 AM AST.

$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN

[AdamFirst]

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM EMILY ADVISORY NUMBER 6
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052011
1100 PM AST TUE AUG 02 2011

...EMILY MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD...EXPECTED TO APPROACH HISPANIOLA
ON WEDNESDAY...


SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.2N 66.7W
ABOUT 125 MI...200 KM S OF PONCE PUERTO RICO
ABOUT 265 MI...425 KM SE OF SANTO DOMINGO DOMINICAN REPUBLIC
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES

[stormhunter7]

like u posted a bit ago.. we seen this that last few years... Emily is still not stacked vertically good yet... mainly due to the surface flow to the north in the Atlantic... if i remember correctly last year... this was shown really good with the NOAA, NCAR and NASA jets flying those research missions. The surface flow seemed to stay above 10-15kts and that along with mid level shear.. never allowed the systems to get going until that flow slowed to less than 10kts. You keep getting pulses of convections, but they appear there not over the center, and are usually on the eastern side of the low. I expect will see her begin to turn late tonight and early morning... Recon should be up and at in a little bit, so we should and will know for sure.. i cant see the pressure dropping that much since last fix.

[Evil Jeremy]

Think FL is still definitely in play.

yes

I know I am spliting hairs so far out, but South Fla?

Yep.

[Aric Dunn]

Think FL is still definitely in play.

yes

I know I am spliting hairs so far out, but South Fla?

well the angle of approach is such that a wobble here or there could bring it on shore any where

[cycloneye]

Uploaded by imageshack.us

[Evil Jeremy]

Cone is sped up but not changed much in position, looks very like the last one. 3 day cone is hugging Florida's SE coast.

[wxsouth]

Strong low-level easterly environmental flow has forced the low-level center to race out from under the convection once again. Velocity data beginning to suggest a new center is forming near the deepest convection. However, unless the low-level easterlies relax, the new center is likely to suffer the same fate. No significant intensification is likely as long as this process continues.

[stormhunter7]

SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.2N 66.7W
ABOUT 125 MI...200 KM S OF PONCE PUERTO RICO
ABOUT 265 MI...425 KM SE OF SANTO DOMINGO DOMINICAN REPUBLIC
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES


not much change... til recon arrives later tonight!

[cycloneye]

Cone is sped up but not changed much in position, looks very like the last one. 3 day cone is hugging Florida's SE coast.

Hurricane at the final position.

[hurricanefloyd5]

Still booking it right along to the west it would appear.

I agree, maybe not due west, but slightly north of due west.
Based at the 8 PM AST estimated position by the NHC, she would have had to start tracking on a 295-300 deg heading to catch on her 8 AM AST forecast position. Clearly she does not have that heading right now, 285 deg heading at most.

WOW did the center just move or reform wswward?

[Aric Dunn]

dont see wnw at all.. guess they have to go off continuity .. this is when it is supposed to be turning so since no plane to verify they go with the forecast..

[Miami Storm Tracker]

WSVN,

Just gave the update they said it was moving wnw.

[Evil Jeremy]

dont see wnw at all.. guess they have to go off continuity .. this is when it is supposed to be turning so since no plane to verify they go with the forecast..

Emily has to start moving NW pretty soon to even match the next forecast point.

[lebron23]

If you live in florida i'd really follow this...the more it fails to make the turn the bigger shift west we will probably see...

[Aric Dunn]

hmmm that cant be right.. those coordinates are dead center in the middle if the large convective burst.. center cannot be there..\\\


nevermind.. a little to left..

but doing some math here. the center is farther west.. but close enough i guess..

[hurricanefloyd5]

aric it's moving wsw of due west right?