ATL: EMILY - Remnants

[ronjon]

Do you feel the NHC will shift the cone to the west in response to these model changes or do you think they will stay on the original track and wait to see if the models change once again?

The NHC very much respects the GFDL but with just one cycle of models if they shift it will be slight to the west to avoid the big flopping back and forth of the track. Watch the TVCN (consensus of many models) for a good analog of NHCs track.

[Fyzn94]

Like I said earlier, the NHC track is pretty close to where it will go. There are going to be no big swings in the track westward since the ridge is building over most of the southeast US.

The 18z models (so far) tend to disagree. This is very uncertain. We won't know where this is really going until Hispaniola.

Speaking of the NHC track, Emily needs to start moving WNW pronto to hit the next few forecast points. The NHC keeps expecting Emily to track WNW right after they issue the advisory, and Emily keeps charging to the west.

That sort of reminds me of Earl's track from last year.

[AdamFirst]

We're three days out from a potential impact on the Florida peninsula...does anyone project any more major flops in the models?

[Kory]

Yes I do see a small opportunity for a shift a little closer to Florida, but the sub-Atlantic ridge should be far enough to the east that it leaves a huge door open. These tropical models have been switching back and forth like crazy.

GFS showing a large opening between the two ridges with plenty of space to move far enough from Florida.

Kory, you got to remember how far right the GFS was with Don, the same thing could be happening here.
Don't put all your eggs with the GFS.
Meanwhile the euro has been showing a little stronger ridge and a little farther west, if it is right that would put Emily's passage a bit closer to FL, too close for comfort.
UKMET shows even a stronger ridging, but UKMET lately has been overdoing the strength of ridges in past its 4-5 day range forecast.

The 12z Euro has almost the same track as the NHC center. The only models that got Don right was the BAM models.

[stormreader]

We're three days out from a potential impact on the Florida peninsula...does anyone project any more major flops in the models?

Could very well be. See my above post.

[AJC3]

We're three days out from a potential impact on the Florida peninsula...does anyone project any more major flops in the models?

Closer to four, but what's a day between friends, right?

In any event, I think you may see a singular model continue to show flip-flops that are significant, but in all likelihood, when looking at the models as a whole, the shifts are going to be less extensive. Still, we're at the point where minor modle shifts have some pretty big implications for those in Hispanola/PR, the Bahamas and Florida.

[janswizard]

If this continues to move more to the west, will the projected long-term tracks also move west or will this get pushed away from Florida as the models are currently indicating?

[artist]

We're three days out from a potential impact on the Florida peninsula...does anyone project any more major flops in the models?

Closer to four, but what's a day between friends, right?

In any event, I think you may see a singular model continue to show flip-flops that are significant, but in all likelihood, when looking at the models as a whole, the shifts are going to be less extensive. Still, we're at the point where minor modle shifts have some pretty big implications for those in Hispanola/PR, the Bahamas and Florida.

AJC3, what are your thoughts at this point? Care to share?

[SunnyThoughts]

White intense cold cloud tops showing up now on IR

[Aric Dunn]

We're three days out from a potential impact on the Florida peninsula...does anyone project any more major flops in the models?

Closer to four, but what's a day between friends, right?

In any event, I think you may see a singular model continue to show flip-flops that are significant, but in all likelihood, when looking at the models as a whole, the shifts are going to be less extensive. Still, we're at the point where minor modle shifts have some pretty big implications for those in Hispanola/PR, the Bahamas and Florida.

the angle of approach is such that any deviation could mean landfall or well away..

[Vortex]

12Z ukmet also very close to florida....

http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/ ... cal072.gif

[Evil Jeremy]

If this continues to move more to the west, will the projected long-term tracks also move west or will this get pushed away from Florida as the models are currently indicating?

If the track isn't' moved to the west, the NHC cone is going to need to overcompensate with a sharp turn to the NW/NWW that IMO, given Emily's love of the wild wild west, might seem unreasonable. A combo of Emily's west movement, and tonight's model trends, should result in a shift to the west for the next forecast cone.

[NDG]

Yes I do see a small opportunity for a shift a little closer to Florida, but the sub-Atlantic ridge should be far enough to the east that it leaves a huge door open. These tropical models have been switching back and forth like crazy.

GFS showing a large opening between the two ridges with plenty of space to move far enough from Florida.

Kory, you got to remember how far right the GFS was with Don, the same thing could be happening here.
Don't put all your eggs with the GFS.
Meanwhile the euro has been showing a little stronger ridge and a little farther west, if it is right that would put Emily's passage a bit closer to FL, too close for comfort.
UKMET shows even a stronger ridging, but UKMET lately has been overdoing the strength of ridges in past its 4-5 day range forecast.

The 12z Euro has almost the same track as the NHC center. The only models that got Don right was the BAM models.

The Euro did the best with Don's track, at times some of the BAM models were south of the border for a good while.

[CYCLONE MIKE]

Look at that trough dig down. Here we are the first week of August and looking at a trough digging all the way dwon to florida. Have to admit when it was first mentioned said no way, it will not come close to influencing the track of future Emily. As others have said almost exact repeat of last year. Sure there is time for things to change but time is ticking away and before we know it fall will be here with the first cool fronts dropping down. Maybe the U.S. coasts will be spared again this year. If you are into watching landfalling storms might be out of luck. The death ridge sure is keeping the gulf in check and that shows no signs of letting up. Highs in the mid to upper 90's for the next week. As of 7pm we had a heat index of 108 Also north LA forecast to be over 100 for the next 7 days. All time record highs and hottest months ever records dropping like flies

[Kory]

Again the 12z Euro is almost identical to the NHC track currently.

72 hours:


96 hours:


120 hours:



Now the NHC hurricane track:

[NDG]

Talking about being a weak quadrant, buoy is around 90 miles WSW from Emily.

Conditions at 42059 as of
(7:50 pm AST)
2350 GMT on 08/02/2011:

Wind Direction (WDIR): N ( 360 deg true )
Wind Speed (WSPD): 1.9 kts
Wind Gust (GST): 3.9 kts
Wave Height (WVHT): 6.9 ft
Dominant Wave Period (DPD): 8 sec
Average Period (APD): 6.4 sec
Atmospheric Pressure (PRES): 29.74 in
Pressure Tendency (PTDY): +0.02 in ( Rising )
Air Temperature (ATMP): 82.2 °F
Water Temperature (WTMP): 84.2 °F
Dew Point (DEWP): 77.2 °F
Heat Index (HEAT): 90.7 °F

[cycloneye]

00z Tropical Models.



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[Nimbus]

If this were October and Emily was a cat 2 hurricane you know that trough would dig and take her out to the east. The troughs will dig all the way to Panama that time of year.

The trough has already dug unseasonably far south almost to Andros island now. The thing that is bugging me is that Emily is still just a tropical storm embedded in a somewhat zonal subtropical ridge.

No doubt she will get pulled north some but don't tropical storms in the Caribbean often get bypassed by troughs this time of year?

[stormreader]

Look at that trough dig down. Here we are the first week of August and looking at a trough digging all the way dwon to florida. Have to admit when it was first mentioned said no way, it will not come close to influencing the track of future Emily. As others have said almost exact repeat of last year. Sure there is time for things to change but time is ticking away and before we know it fall will be here with the first cool fronts dropping down. Maybe the U.S. coasts will be spared again this year. If you are into watching landfalling storms might be out of luck. The death ridge sure is keeping the gulf in check and that shows no signs of letting up. Highs in the mid to upper 90's for the next week. As of 7pm we had a heat index of 108

Yeah but Mike its early in the season. And actually its possible we could have a landfall in Fl from Emily. Models are tending west again. The trough while still there might delay in picking up Emily allowing a slightly further west move. It wouldn't take much to impact Fl.

[SeminoleWind]

Whew, talk about your close calls for Florida...