ATL: IRENE - Remnants - Discussion

[ROCK]

Mike,to me that suggest it needs a wee bit more stacking....

not going to be easy with that aggressive forward motion

good point... moving at almost 20mph doesnt help much...

[Sanibel]

It's either poofing or pulsing. It should burst again.

[Blown Away]

It's misleading but it sure looks like the circulation is rotating around a broad area near or just above 15N and moving WNW.
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/tatl/loop-avn.html

[Ptarmigan]

I notice that tropical waves that look impressive at first tend to weaken over time. On the other hand, tropical waves that are not as impressive tend to develop. I know many major hurricanes came from unimpressive tropical waves.

[abajan]

Is rapid intensification on the cards for this. I'm kinda shocked to see how well developed it looks compared to just a few hours ago.

[cycloneye]

Is rapid intensification on the cards for this. I'm kinda shocked to see how well developed it looks compared to just a few hours ago.

According to SHIP RI forecast at 00z,is at 43%,23%,18% and 9% for each category listed below

Code: Select all

Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold=    43% is   3.3 times the sample mean(12.8%)
 Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold=    23% is   2.7 times the sample mean( 8.4%)
 Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold=    18% is   3.6 times the sample mean( 5.0%)
 Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold=     9% is   2.8 times the sample mean( 3.4%)



[ROCK]

It's misleading but it sure looks like the circulation is rotating around a broad area near or just above 15N and moving WNW.
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/tatl/loop-avn.html

to far north IMO.....try 14N....best track. MLC to the north of that. you are right though it a broad area and I agree with IVAN...its going to be a little more time before it can consolidate and pop a LLC.....

[micktooth]

All I see is a small "blob" at 14N, is this what you all are seeing as a possible center forming?

[Ivanhater]

Blow up right over where microwave is suggesting where the LLC is....14 north

[cycloneye]

The latitude where the LLC finnally closes will be very important for the future track and implications downstream for landfalls.

[Gustywind]

NRL
20110820.0215.97LINVEST.25kts-1007mb-139N-518W

[Ivanhater]

Blow up over the LLC (supported by microwave) continues to expand. The rotation earlier was just a MLC IMO.

[cycloneye]

Interesting Michael. That means more south,less interaction or miss of Hispanola.

[Adoquín]

blow up continues to grow in size.

[caneseddy]

Blow up over the LLC (supported by microwave) continues to expand. The rotation earlier was just a MLC IMO.

looking at that image there, I'm starting to see why many models see to want to restrengthen this quickly once it clears the islands......that circulation envelope is huge and will not let it get shredded with the islands as much as other storms in the past

[AdamFirst]

Local CBS met (John Matthews) is concerned with this system. Says a hurricane by Monday and that we need to keep a close eye on it.

Local NBC met (James Weiland) says to keep watch, didn't really talk about it too much.

[Hurricaneman]

could the storms around the center mean development soon or would you think this would have to couple with thw MLC first

[cycloneye]

Dvorak pic of hot tower over possible LLC.

[caneseddy]

Local CBS met (John Matthews) is concerned with this system. Says a hurricane by Monday and that we need to keep a close eye on it.

Local NBC met (James Weiland) says to keep watch, didn't really talk about it too much.

Max Mayfield also said we need to pay attention to this storm and said that when this storm forms, to not be surprised to see South Florida in the middle of the cone of uncertainty

[SouthDadeFish]

Center estimate as of 02:45Z:



Getting better organized.