ATL: EMILY - Remnants

[SouthDadeFish]

There is no necessary millibar requirement for category one hurricane. It depends on the pressure gradient, not the actual pressure. We haven't had any central pressure readings taken it about four or five hours.

[Steve H.]

OK, that's a little disturbing 984 mb. That's like over my house

[cycloneye]

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM EMILY INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 5A
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052011
800 PM AST TUE AUG 02 2011

...EMILY CONTINUES MOVING WESTWARD...OUTER RAINBANDS MOVING ACROSS
PUERTO RICO...


SUMMARY OF 800 PM AST...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.0N 66.1W
ABOUT 165 MI...265 KM S OF SAN JUAN PUERTO RICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* PUERTO RICO...VIEQUES AND CULEBRA
* THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC
* HAITI

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS
* SOUTHEAST BAHAMAS AND TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA IN THE UNITED STATES
...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST
OFFICE. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA OUTSIDE THE
UNITED STATES...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL
METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 800 PM AST...0000 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM EMILY WAS
ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR LATITUDE 16.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 66.1 WEST.
EMILY IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 14 MPH...22 KM/H. A GRADUAL
TURN TO THE NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS.
ON THE FORECAST TRACK THE CENTER OF EMILY WILL MOVE ACROSS
HISPANIOLA LATE WEDNESDAY AND INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS ON
THURSDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 50 MPH...85 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. THESE STRONG WINDS ARE LOCATED MAINLY TO THE NORTH AND EAST
OF THE CENTER. SOME SLIGHT STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE BEFORE THE
CENTER MOVES OVER THE HIGH TERRAIN OF HISPANIOLA.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 105 MILES...165 KM
MAINLY TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF THE CENTER. A NOAA NATIONAL OCEAN
SERVICE STATION AT ESPERANZA ON THE ISLAND OF VIEQUES RECENTLY
REPORTED A SUSTAINED WIND OF 34 MPH...55 KM/H...AND A GUST TO 44
MPH...71 KM/H.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1005 MB...29.68 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT IN PUERTO
RICO...CULEBRA...AND VIEQUES...AND SHOULD BEGIN TO SPREAD INTO THE
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC AND HAITI ON WEDNESDAY. TROPICAL STORM
CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS TONIGHT...AND IN
THE SOUTHEAST BAHAMAS AND TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS BY THURSDAY.

RAINFALL...EMILY IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS
OF 4 TO 6 INCHES IN PUERTO RICO...THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...AND HAITI
WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 10 INCHES POSSIBLE. THESE RAINS
COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES IN AREAS
OF MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN.

STORM SURGE...A STORM SURGE WILL RAISE WATER LEVELS BY 1 TO 2 FEET
ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS IN THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING AREA. NEAR
THE COAST...THE SURGE WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE AND DANGEROUS
WAVES.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1100 PM AST.

$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN

[SouthDadeFish]

I believe that is Allan Huffman's site, very respected met from NC I think thats his anyway.

It is. Model images from his site are consistently posted here...

[Aric Dunn]

OK, that's a little disturbing 984 mb. That's like over my house

and mine .....

[Vortex]

I verified..looks good...18Z lanfall near cocoa beach florida and turning N at the coast

[AdamFirst]

GFDL start running yet?

[SouthDadeFish]

GFDL start running yet?

not yet. Btw so far all the 18Z models have remained the same or shifted slightly west to my knowledge.

[Vortex]

In fact, 18Z HWRF 983mb just of west palm beach at H+84


http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/ ... st2084.gif

[SouthDadeFish]

Yes the entire run was much farther west. Almost into E Cuba.

[Bocadude85]

EMILY CONTINUES MOVING WESTWARD...OUTER RAINBANDS MOVING ACROSS
PUERTO RICO...


SUMMARY OF 800 PM AST...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.0N 66.1W
ABOUT 165 MI...265 KM S OF SAN JUAN PUERTO RICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES

[SouthDadeFish]

So much for the WNW movement for now... Really wish we had recon updates right about now to see if we can confirm a developing eyewall...

[AdamFirst]

Seemed like the WNW moment on the 5 PM advisory was erroneous.

[artist]

EMILY CONTINUES MOVING WESTWARD...OUTER RAINBANDS MOVING ACROSS
PUERTO RICO...


SUMMARY OF 800 PM AST...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.0N 66.1W
ABOUT 165 MI...265 KM S OF SAN JUAN PUERTO RICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES

not what I wanted to hear. HWRF may be on to something. Does anyone know exactly where she was forecast to be about now?

[JPmia]

Where's the G-IV data?? lol I imagine they would wait until it crosses Haiti/DR and then sample the atmosphere.

[SouthDadeFish]

GFDL running... scroll down to 18Z GFDL Emily:

http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/gfdl.html

[Jevo]

Going to be interesting to see who writes the next Disco... There are a few over there that swear by the GFDL/HWRF

[Gustywind]

With these outer bands moving near you Luis be vigilant. Keep us informed as usual.

[SouthDadeFish]

GFDL looks much farther west through 36 hours...

[SouthDadeFish]

Through 48 hours almost over the SE tip of Cuba... wow.