ATL: EMILY - Remnants

[Gustywind]

Here are some amazing pics (49) of Emily... spreading and devastating the streets of Fort De France (Martinica). Oh boy it's pretty impressive
Click on this link:http://www.microsofttranslator.com/bv.aspx?from=fr&to=en&a=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.martinique.franceantilles.fr%2Factualite%2Fenvironnement%2Ffort-de-france-une-capitale-traversee-par-les-eaux-02-08-2011-121131.php%3Fpos%3D2%23diaporama

Link: http://www.microsofttranslator.com/bv.a ... 3diaporama

[underthwx]

If Emily passes over Hispaniola becomes disorganized how do the models respond? What mean is....if a new center forms is the GOM still in play? Bear with me guys...Im trying to learn from yall.....

[artist]

from Gusty's link a minute agoof Martinique-

[ozonepete]

Here are some amazing pics (49) of Emily... spreading and devastating the streets of Fort De France (Martinica). Oh boy it's pretty impressive
Click on this link:http://www.microsofttranslator.com/bv.aspx?from=fr&to=en&a=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.martinique.franceantilles.fr%2Factualite%2Fenvironnement%2Ffort-de-france-une-capitale-traversee-par-les-eaux-02-08-2011-121131.php%3Fpos%3D2%23diaporama

Wow that's just terrible, Gusty. That's a LOT more damage than I expected. So sorry for those people.

[artist]

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products

What a trough. Kudos to the GFS for picking up on this trough 7+ days out in the run.

The ECMWF just kept this system weaker so it got further west...but it also showed a trough, though not as strong.

There is a death ridge that is stubborn to depart across the mid section of the U.S, with an amplified troughiness pattern on the West and East Coasts of North America.

As long as we have that pattern, tough to get anything signficant to hit the U.S mainland. As soon as ridging tries to build in across the Western Atlantic, a new impulse comes down over top the death ridge and swings into the Western Atlantic....

But it is early August, and the long-wave pattern can shift down the road so we shouldn't get complacent by any means.

check HPC vs the GFS on the trough -

http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/medr/5dayf ... ff_wbg.gif

[NDG]

I am not buying the GFS & GFDL, they have been a right bias lately.
I am still thinking that Emily will come very close to SE FL before being pulled out to sea by the trough.

[SouthDadeFish]

18Z GFS is about to run:

http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/NCOMAGWEB/appc ... mageSize=M

[KWT]

Wow awful pictures Artist, looks like there has been a fair amount of damage from Emily...

Shouldn't rule out the severity of the risk to Hispaniola even if it is just a disorganised TS, there'll be lots of rain and mudlisdes/landslides always a worry...

[Gustywind]

from Gusty's link a minute agoof Martinique-

Tkanks my friend, that's awesome... here we are in the islands: a "simple" and poor TS can pose serious damages even if its path doesn't seems apparently threat an island, but Martinica was the sad example . Be courageous my friends from Martinica, keep the faith.

[KWT]

Good job so far GatorCane. And, I might add - good job to the GFS so far, which is often an unfair frequent target on this board. 'Tis why we have multiple models Lets see if it is right in the end though.

Lets not forget if the GFS was intially right it'd be recurving already...not sure its right to say its done a great job...

Not done bad, but no better then the other models overall.

[Stormcenter]

This set up (troughs) are almost a repeat of last season so far. If this continues we may not have many if any threats to U.S. mainland from the Atlantic all season. JMHO

[Gustywind]

Here are some amazing pics (49) of Emily... spreading and devastating the streets of Fort De France (Martinica). Oh boy it's pretty impressive
Click on this link:http://www.microsofttranslator.com/bv.aspx?from=fr&to=en&a=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.martinique.franceantilles.fr%2Factualite%2Fenvironnement%2Ffort-de-france-une-capitale-traversee-par-les-eaux-02-08-2011-121131.php%3Fpos%3D2%23diaporama

Wow that's just terrible, Gusty. That's a LOT more damage than I expected. So sorry for those people.

Yeah, i'm suprised and a bit shocked , no words for that, God spared Guadeloupe but Martinica not. When sometimes we often said that we're so vulnerable in the islands...

[caneman]

Good job so far GatorCane. And, I might add - good job to the GFS so far, which is often an unfair frequent target on this board. 'Tis why we have multiple models Lets see if it is right in the end though.

Lets not forget if the GFS was intially right it'd be recurving already...not sure its right to say its done a great job...

Not done bad, but no better then the other models overall.

Well. some models have a West bias and some an East. Pick your poison as to which will be right in any given scenario. The point is simply to take a compilation of the models and you will usually be closer to being right

[bella_may]

my local met said he thinks this thing could get in the gom

[Aric Dunn]

less of a trough for the 18z gfs..

[caneman]

my local met said he thinks this thing could get in the gom

All depends on which met you're talking about. What area and who? Sadly, most Mets TV mets seem to be behind the 8 ball in comparison to the up to the minute info you get here. JMHO

[gatorcane]

Look at the 18Z GFS. 500MB flow 12 hours from now. The "death ridge" is that circle in the south-central United States...and look at that huge trough digging into the Western Atlantic...

Also note the the other low pressures systems in Canada and offshore the NW Pacific that will pinwheel around this death ridge and dive into the Western Atlantic...which keeps that Bermuda High shifted well to the East and in a weakened state

With that setup the Northern GOM is off limits since flow is from E to W blocking anything significant to impact the Northern Gulf coast.

Of course like I said, this longwave pattern is not likely to persist the next few months.

[KWT]

This set up (troughs) are almost a repeat of last season so far. If this continues we may not have many if any threats to U.S. mainland from the Atlantic all season. JMHO

Yep thats is true, of course time for that to change but to be honest I can't imagine much shifting for a while yet...amazing how this year is turning into a clone of last year, I think NS wise this year may well end up bneing similar as well...

Still I suppose 2004 had a big shift so its possible...

Anyway lets see what the GFS does, I imagine it'll be very close to its last run.

[Gustywind]

If i have others pics in Martinica or Guadeloupe i will post them.
Gustywind

[ozonepete]

If i have others pics in Martinica or Guadeloupe i will post them.
Gustywind

Thanks. Good luck. This should also be a warning to people in Puerto Rico and Hispaniola to take all cautions they can.

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products. Follow us on
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