ATL: EMILY - Remnants

[Jevo]

WNW OR 295 DEGREES AT 12 MPH

That's interesting, because in the Discussion Avila says this:
IT APPEARS THAT EMILY HAS RESUMED A WESTWARD TRACK AND
IS NOW MOVING ABOUT 280 DEGREES AT 12 KNOTS

Only reasoning is that the Advisory is issued before Discussion and things may have changed in the time took to complete the two.. Either that or Lixion is hitting the bottle early

[Aric Dunn]

The discussion says Emily is moving at 280 degrees but the public advisory says 295 lol...

yeah saw that.. weird..

[TheBurn]

Here are a couple of different Vis shots (20:00 and 20:15 Z)

[HurricaneWarning92]

LOL so now not only is the storm a mess but also the wording. haha

[wxman57]

Latest NHC track is 40-50 miles farther offshore southeast Florida.

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2011/gr ... p_5W.shtml

[sunnyday]

Where can I find the latest cone and/or spaghetti models based on the 5:00 info? Thank you

[KWT]

Yep a bit further east again, models do seem tobe shifting eastwards as they start to reduce the ridge once again...

Still I think its unlikely to miss the Bahamas or the T&C's, but Hispaniola should make it mainly a rain event...though I happen to think we may get a hurricane out of this as it exits NE...

[Jevo]

Latest NHC track is 40-50 miles farther offshore southeast Florida.

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2011/gr ... p_5W.shtml

This makes me a happy panda and I hope to see the trend continue... Big plans for this weekend coming up

OT: Good to see ya wxman

[Hurricaneman]

Ill say it this way, if the NHC doesnt know the current motion, how are we going to guess where this is going, even they're confused

[dolebot_Broward_NW]

i just looked at vapor and it looks like the llc is dead on to nhc forecast. its headed toward its next forecast point.

Water vapor is not how you track a system. The important bit is the LLC, which is not possible to identify using water vapor. Water vapor imagery can show you where moisture exists, but moisture does not equal a storm position.

[Kory]

Where can I find the latest cone and/or spaghetti models based on the 5:00 info? Thank you

Here you go...
http://www.wunderground.com/tropical/tracking/at201105_model.html

[Aric Dunn]

next up gfs... 35 min or so

[Kory]

There more I look at this...the less I feel like Florida is going to see a direct impact. They will definitely see higher surf, but the models show the ridge eroding more now thus a more eastward shift.

[artist]

The discussion says Emily is moving at 280 degrees but the public advisory says 295 lol...

I noticed that too. They seem even more confused than us at this point! lol

[stormreader]

You can clearly see on the WV Image how the trough has dug deeper (down to the tip of the Fl Penninsula) resulting in the model shifts to the east. A couple of the models still have Emily entering the E GOM (further west) but not many. This E GOM had been my thinking too for the last couple of days. Looks less likely now. Trough would have to lift and flatten quickly.

[gatorcane]

Latest NHC track is 40-50 miles farther offshore southeast Florida.

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2011/gr ... p_5W.shtml

Yes I see that and....now NHC mentioning it is far offshore the U.S. mainland....they don't indicate it is a high uncertainty forecast.....

THIS STEERING PATTERN CALLS FOR A GRADUAL TURN TO
NORTHWEST AND NORTH DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS WITH NO SIGNIFICANT
CHANGE IN SPEED. MOST OF THE LATEST TRACK GUIDANCE IS CONSISTENT
WITH THE OFFICIAL FORECAST...WHICH SHOWS EMILY MOVING NORTHWARD
ACROSS THE BAHAMAS WELL OFFSHORE OF THE UNITED STATES EAST COAST

[jlauderdal]

From 5 PM advisory.

THE GOVERNMENT OF THE BAHAMAS HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR
THE SOUTHEAST BAHAMAS AND FOR THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS.

i was listening to 810 AM from the Bahamas, we get it loud and clear in FLL and they actually start with the alerts at 60 hours

[gatorcane]

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products

What a trough. Kudos to the GFS for picking up on this trough 7+ days out in the run.

The ECMWF just kept this system weaker so it got further west...but it also showed a trough, though not as strong.

There is a death ridge that is stubborn to depart across the mid section of the U.S, with an amplified troughiness pattern on the West and East Coasts of North America.

As long as we have that pattern, tough to get anything signficant to hit the U.S mainland. As soon as ridging tries to build in across the Western Atlantic, a new impulse comes down over top the death ridge and swings into the Western Atlantic....

But it is early August, and the long-wave pattern can shift down the road so we shouldn't get complacent by any means.

[sunnyday]

Thank you, Kory. At this point, it's good to see it not so close to the Fl coast as it was.

[jlauderdal]

WNW OR 295 DEGREES AT 12 MPH

That's interesting, because in the Discussion Avila says this:
IT APPEARS THAT EMILY HAS RESUMED A WESTWARD TRACK AND
IS NOW MOVING ABOUT 280 DEGREES AT 12 KNOTS

Only reasoning is that the Advisory is issued before Discussion and things may have changed in the time took to complete the two.. Either that or Lixion is hitting the bottle early

cafe cubano with rum