ATL: IRENE - Models

[xironman]

Euro at 84, I wonder if they are going to have to evac VA Beach



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[Brent]

[weatherguy2]

00z ECMWF is really bad for part of NC:



00z tracks:

[bamajammer4eva]

Map of just the new TVCN & AVN vs 10PM NHC forecast track and wind swath

[xironman]

6z GFS looks like a little bit stronger ridging and a slightly weaker trough at 36hs. Maybe a bit more nudge west this run.

[jlauderdal]

6z GFS looks like a little bit stronger ridging and a slightly weaker trough at 36hs. Maybe a bit more nudge west this run.

trend has been west so no surprise, not looking good for the midatlantic, NE...there is still time but trend is going the wrong way

[vacanechaser]

weatherguy2 and xironman, where are you guys getting those graphics for the euro... what link please.. like both graphics and would like to be able to see it much better than the ones i use since it may run right over me here!! thanx in advance



Jesse V. Bass III
http://www.vastorm,photo.com
Hurricane Intercept Research Team

[KWT]

Looks like the 06z GFS takes Irene over the Outer Banks as a powerful hurricane still...

[xironman]

I don't know where weather guy is getting his but I am using Wundermap at weather underground, select model data on the right hand side. It is really cool for toggling between runs, like right now it is showing 06z to be 30 miles west of 0z for gfs at OBX then they get back together in NJ.

[vacanechaser]

thanx xironman


Jesse V. Bass III
http://www.vastormphoto.com
Hurricane Intercept Research Team

[xironman]

From 84hrs on the 0z and 6z look like carbon copies until around 96 where the 6z is actually east of the 0z. But that time is probably beyond the GFS's skill for such small changes.

[Nimbus]

Thats one of the longest EWRC's I've seen in a while. Her forward speed is starting to pick up so she will be hauling butt when she makes landfall in southern New England. Even inland up through Boston,Portsmouth and Portland where the coastal cities are on the strong side of the circulation there are likely to be massive power outages. I remember driving up from Boston to Maine after Gloria. So many trees down up in southwestern Maine that the roads were nearly impassable where the eye remnants had mowed a swath about 30 miles wide.

[clfenwi]

06Z HWRF stats... 66h position is in the Pamlico sound, west of Cape hatteras; 27 nm shift to the northwest from 00Z run. 90h is the meeting of NY/CT/MA borders; 50 nm shift to the west.

ATTENTION...NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER

NCEP COUPLED HWRF HURRICANE MODEL FORECAST MADE FOR

HURRICANE IRENE 09L

INITIAL TIME 6Z AUG 25

FORECAST POSITIONS (FROM STATS.SHORT FILE...)

HOUR LATITUDE LONGITUDE MIN PRESS (hPa) MAX SFC WIND (KTS)

HOUR: 0.0 LONG: -75.80 LAT: 24.10 MIN PRESS (hPa): 933.00 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 99.00
HOUR: 6.0 LONG: -76.50 LAT: 25.00 MIN PRESS (hPa): 928.00 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 111.00
HOUR: 12.0 LONG: -76.80 LAT: 25.90 MIN PRESS (hPa): 921.00 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 116.00
HOUR: 18.0 LONG: -77.00 LAT: 27.00 MIN PRESS (hPa): 923.00 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 114.00
HOUR: 24.0 LONG: -77.10 LAT: 28.20 MIN PRESS (hPa): 923.00 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 110.00
HOUR: 30.0 LONG: -77.10 LAT: 29.20 MIN PRESS (hPa): 925.00 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 110.00
HOUR: 36.0 LONG: -77.00 LAT: 30.30 MIN PRESS (hPa): 926.00 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 109.00
HOUR: 42.0 LONG: -76.70 LAT: 31.40 MIN PRESS (hPa): 928.00 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 102.00
HOUR: 48.0 LONG: -76.60 LAT: 32.50 MIN PRESS (hPa): 927.00 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 99.00
HOUR: 54.0 LONG: -76.40 LAT: 33.60 MIN PRESS (hPa): 927.00 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 105.00
HOUR: 60.0 LONG: -76.10 LAT: 34.70 MIN PRESS (hPa): 925.00 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 103.00
HOUR: 66.0 LONG: -75.70 LAT: 35.70 MIN PRESS (hPa): 929.00 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 90.00
HOUR: 72.0 LONG: -75.30 LAT: 37.00 MIN PRESS (hPa): 929.00 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 88.00
HOUR: 78.0 LONG: -74.90 LAT: 38.40 MIN PRESS (hPa): 931.00 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 84.00
HOUR: 84.0 LONG: -74.40 LAT: 40.10 MIN PRESS (hPa): 934.00 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 76.00
HOUR: 90.0 LONG: -73.50 LAT: 42.10 MIN PRESS (hPa): 948.00 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 60.00
HOUR: 96.0 LONG: -72.50 LAT: 44.40 MIN PRESS (hPa): 963.00 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 43.00
HOUR: 102.0 LONG: -71.10 LAT: 46.70 MIN PRESS (hPa): 974.00 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 36.00
HOUR: 108.0 LONG: -69.40 LAT: 48.90 MIN PRESS (hPa): 979.00 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 24.00
HOUR: 114.0 LONG: -67.60 LAT: 51.10 MIN PRESS (hPa): 982.00 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 40.00
HOUR: 120.0 LONG: -65.10 LAT: 52.90 MIN PRESS (hPa): 983.00 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 23.00
HOUR: 126.0 LONG: -61.60 LAT: 54.80 MIN PRESS (hPa): 988.00 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 34.00
FORECAST RAN UNCOUPLED

[clfenwi]

06Z HWRF wind swath

[SEASON_CANCELED]

Thats one of the longest EWRC's I've seen in a while. Her forward speed is starting to pick up so she will be hauling butt when she makes landfall in southern New England. Even inland up through Boston,Portsmouth and Portland where the coastal cities are on the strong side of the circulation there are likely to be massive power outages. I remember driving up from Boston to Maine after Gloria. So many trees down up in southwestern Maine that the roads were nearly impassable where the eye remnants had mowed a swath about 30 miles wide.

Ditto on Bob. i was in brookhaven New York and we werent anywhere near that and yet it absolutely crushed us. Bob was an extremely disorganized hurricane by the time it rolled up to us. The news at the time told us it was going to be like a strong noreaster.

[clfenwi]

06Z GFDL Stats... 66h point is off-shore east of NC/SC line;south of Jacksonville; 57 nm shift to the southwest compared to 00Z. 90h point is Tappahanock, VA; 112 nm shift to the south-southwest.

HOUR: .0 LONG: -75.90 LAT: 24.10 MIN PRESS (hPa): 962.70 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 99.88
HOUR: 6.0 LONG: -76.62 LAT: 25.04 MIN PRESS (hPa): 954.57 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 98.07
HOUR: 12.0 LONG: -77.25 LAT: 26.02 MIN PRESS (hPa): 948.33 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 98.12
HOUR: 18.0 LONG: -77.45 LAT: 27.04 MIN PRESS (hPa): 942.75 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS):106.73
HOUR: 24.0 LONG: -77.85 LAT: 28.21 MIN PRESS (hPa): 941.98 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS):101.63
HOUR: 30.0 LONG: -78.23 LAT: 29.22 MIN PRESS (hPa): 942.18 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS):103.37
HOUR: 36.0 LONG: -78.29 LAT: 29.95 MIN PRESS (hPa): 939.65 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 95.14
HOUR: 42.0 LONG: -78.04 LAT: 30.77 MIN PRESS (hPa): 936.21 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 89.56
HOUR: 48.0 LONG: -78.15 LAT: 31.57 MIN PRESS (hPa): 936.72 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 92.62
HOUR: 54.0 LONG: -78.06 LAT: 32.30 MIN PRESS (hPa): 931.95 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS):104.10
HOUR: 60.0 LONG: -77.90 LAT: 32.80 MIN PRESS (hPa): 927.22 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS):108.66
HOUR: 66.0 LONG: -77.35 LAT: 33.61 MIN PRESS (hPa): 925.77 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS):101.49
HOUR: 72.0 LONG: -77.17 LAT: 34.64 MIN PRESS (hPa): 930.46 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 91.64
HOUR: 78.0 LONG: -77.01 LAT: 35.97 MIN PRESS (hPa): 935.44 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 80.31
HOUR: 84.0 LONG: -77.17 LAT: 37.05 MIN PRESS (hPa): 939.94 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 73.86
HOUR: 90.0 LONG: -76.91 LAT: 37.95 MIN PRESS (hPa): 944.81 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 76.59
HOUR: 96.0 LONG: -76.34 LAT: 39.26 MIN PRESS (hPa): 950.36 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 67.69
HOUR:102.0 LONG: -75.59 LAT: 41.22 MIN PRESS (hPa): 959.14 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 54.84
HOUR:108.0 LONG: -74.75 LAT: 43.92 MIN PRESS (hPa): 964.08 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 53.41
HOUR:114.0 LONG: -73.53 LAT: 46.38 MIN PRESS (hPa): 963.57 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 49.46
HOUR:120.0 LONG: -72.24 LAT: 48.66 MIN PRESS (hPa): 964.87 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 51.47
HOUR:126.0 LONG: -70.68 LAT: 50.96 MIN PRESS (hPa): 962.22 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 53.02

[jhpigott]

06Z GFDL Stats... 66h point is off-shore east of NC/SC line;south of Jacksonville; 57 nm shift to the southwest compared to 00Z. 90h point is Tappahanock, VA; 112 nm shift to the south-southwest.

HOUR: .0 LONG: -75.90 LAT: 24.10 MIN PRESS (hPa): 962.70 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 99.88
HOUR: 6.0 LONG: -76.62 LAT: 25.04 MIN PRESS (hPa): 954.57 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 98.07
HOUR: 12.0 LONG: -77.25 LAT: 26.02 MIN PRESS (hPa): 948.33 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 98.12
HOUR: 18.0 LONG: -77.45 LAT: 27.04 MIN PRESS (hPa): 942.75 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS):106.73
HOUR: 24.0 LONG: -77.85 LAT: 28.21 MIN PRESS (hPa): 941.98 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS):101.63
HOUR: 30.0 LONG: -78.23 LAT: 29.22 MIN PRESS (hPa): 942.18 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS):103.37
HOUR: 36.0 LONG: -78.29 LAT: 29.95 MIN PRESS (hPa): 939.65 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 95.14
HOUR: 42.0 LONG: -78.04 LAT: 30.77 MIN PRESS (hPa): 936.21 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 89.56
HOUR: 48.0 LONG: -78.15 LAT: 31.57 MIN PRESS (hPa): 936.72 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 92.62
HOUR: 54.0 LONG: -78.06 LAT: 32.30 MIN PRESS (hPa): 931.95 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS):104.10
HOUR: 60.0 LONG: -77.90 LAT: 32.80 MIN PRESS (hPa): 927.22 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS):108.66
HOUR: 66.0 LONG: -77.35 LAT: 33.61 MIN PRESS (hPa): 925.77 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS):101.49
HOUR: 72.0 LONG: -77.17 LAT: 34.64 MIN PRESS (hPa): 930.46 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 91.64
HOUR: 78.0 LONG: -77.01 LAT: 35.97 MIN PRESS (hPa): 935.44 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 80.31
HOUR: 84.0 LONG: -77.17 LAT: 37.05 MIN PRESS (hPa): 939.94 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 73.86
HOUR: 90.0 LONG: -76.91 LAT: 37.95 MIN PRESS (hPa): 944.81 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 76.59
HOUR: 96.0 LONG: -76.34 LAT: 39.26 MIN PRESS (hPa): 950.36 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 67.69
HOUR:102.0 LONG: -75.59 LAT: 41.22 MIN PRESS (hPa): 959.14 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 54.84
HOUR:108.0 LONG: -74.75 LAT: 43.92 MIN PRESS (hPa): 964.08 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 53.41
HOUR:114.0 LONG: -73.53 LAT: 46.38 MIN PRESS (hPa): 963.57 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 49.46
HOUR:120.0 LONG: -72.24 LAT: 48.66 MIN PRESS (hPa): 964.87 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 51.47
HOUR:126.0 LONG: -70.68 LAT: 50.96 MIN PRESS (hPa): 962.22 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 53.02

Interesting, GDFL brings this as far west as 78.3

[jdray]

This storm seems to be pumping up the ridge like Forecaster Stewart suggested on Monday.

No, not a Florida hit, but it might make it further west before turning than people or models might think.

[clfenwi]

06Z GFDL wind swath

[kamqercam]

That wind swath looks messed up. If not I'm in trouble if that come about.