ATL: MARIA - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[clfenwi]

In light of my earlier comment about the 12Z (operational) HWRF and GFDL dropping the circulation, the experimental version of the HWRF did carry it through.



Loop

[Miami Storm Tracker]

NWS Miami snippet from 2:35 pm EST discussion. Looks like they are not buying the GFS and other models that take it well east of Florida and the Bahamas.

It's interesting they keep mentioning it as they are usually a conservative group that waits until absolutely necessary to talk about any tropical threats...

THE LONG RANGE MODELS ARE STILL SHOWING THE VIGOROUS TROPICAL
WAVE OVER THE EASTERN ATLANTIC WATERS TO MOVE TO THE WEST
NORTHWEST AND BE APPROACHING THE SOUTHERN BAHAMA ISLANDS EARLY
NEXT WEEK. FLORIDA RESIDENTS AND VISITORS NEED TO CONTINUE TO
MONITOR THE LATEST FORECAST FROM THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER ON
THIS VIGOROUS TROPICAL WAVE THROUGH THE WEEK.

http://forecast.weather.gov/product.php ... glossary=1

well they are right next door to the NHC.. lol maybe a indication of the NHC thinking as well... besides the EUro is the only model I have seen that accurately initializes the present synoptic setup.. They could be leaning that way.

Maybe I should go over and ask my office is right accross the street.

[cycloneye]

Those members that live in the Eastern Caribbean,remember that besides posting at this thread, you can post at the Caribbean thread at USA & Caribbean Weather forum about any preparations that you may be starting in lite of the first forecast track by NHC.

viewtopic.php?f=24&t=85676&hilit=&p=2189617#p2189617

[Tampa_God]

It looks too good to not be classified a TS by the next advisory. I'm surprised that they don't have it forming into a hurricane sooner. Any reason why? The environment seems almost 100% favorable for intensification, even some rapid intensification. And Katia became a hurricane three times before potential Maria is suppose to become a hurricane.

[painkillerr]

It looks too good to not be classified a TS by the next advisory. I'm surprised that they don't have it forming into a hurricane sooner. Any reason why? The environment seems almost 100% favorable for intensification, even some rapid intensification. And Katia became a hurricane three times before potential Maria is suppose to become a hurricane.

I hope there isn't a repeat of the Irene situation when the NHC issued the TS and hurricane warnings when the storm was already almost over the VI and PR.

[KWT]

It looks too good to not be classified a TS by the next advisory. I'm surprised that they don't have it forming into a hurricane sooner. Any reason why? The environment seems almost 100% favorable for intensification, even some rapid intensification. And Katia became a hurricane three times before potential Maria is suppose to become a hurricane.

I'm guessing its because most models suggest there will be some shear its going to run into pretty soon...

[blazess556]

Huge difference in the 18z GFs initialization compared to the 12z GFS 6 hr forecast. Seems to have initialized more like the 12z euro. Will be interesting to see if it has an effect on the track.

[Gustywind]

I found these words strong and full of paradoxe ? Maybe be the NHC is pretty confident on DT 14 future?!
If this verifies that won't sound good. Hopefully we have plenty of time to see what could really happens:). Let's hope that nothing bad occurs with TD 14... hoping that us in the islands, especially the Leewards, won't have to deal with a cat 1 cane . Let's wait and see, and keep a close eye on this one.

NONE OF THE GUIDANCE SUGGEST SIGNIFICANTSTRENGTHENING... BUT THE DEPRESSION IS EXPECTED TO BE A HURRICANE AS IT NEARS THE LEEWARD ISLANDS.

[KWT]

Most models do seem to show a recurve, but then again we've models recurve this earl many times before and sometimes it happens, sometimes it doesn't...

There is big synoptic uncertainties though aloft, the GFS/ECM handle the US pattern differently, hence why they both do very different things with 96L...

[KWT]

Well I suspect they are looking at the current trends of development and seeing that the globals aren't being agressive enough with it thus far...

[kirium]

I've been reading this thread with TD 14 with interest as my wife and I are supposed to fly into Antigua on Friday evening (the 9th)..not looking really good for us is it?

I'd also like to thank everyone who's been posting in this thread. I've been amazed at the amount of information I cant' find anywhere else that discusses this potential threat.

I'll be continuing to monitor it and hope it turns north a bit!!


Thank you again, everything you've all said has been unbelieveably informative for me as a traveler and as someone who grew up in an area where weather is constantly watched (Norman, Ok).

Keep it up.

[hurricanejustin]

This might just be me -removed-, but the track on this reminds me a bit of Ike, each run bringing it slightly further west...

[cycloneye]

I've been reading this thread with TD 14 with interest as my wife and I are supposed to fly into Antigua on Friday evening (the 9th)..not looking really good for us is it?

I'd also like to thank everyone who's been posting in this thread. I've been amazed at the amount of information I cant' find anywhere else that discusses this potential threat.

I'll be continuing to monitor it and hope it turns north a bit!!


Thank you again, everything you've all said has been unbelieveably informative for me as a traveler and as someone who grew up in an area where weather is constantly watched (Norman, Ok).

Keep it up.

Welcome to Storm2k. I hope that your flight is not canceled and the system stays away from that Island and the other ones.

[HurricaneMaster_PR]

GFS 18Z farther to the south through 63 hrs

[AdamFirst]

GFS weak and west through 48hr

^what he said

[ROCK]

GFS is weak alright....I think to weak...but with ridging to the north not going to matter much...its what is does at 120+ that will be important,

[cycloneye]

At 72 hours between Dominica and Martinique,more south than 12z.

[ozonepete]

I've been reading this thread with TD 14 with interest as my wife and I are supposed to fly into Antigua on Friday evening (the 9th)..not looking really good for us is it?

I'd also like to thank everyone who's been posting in this thread. I've been amazed at the amount of information I cant' find anywhere else that discusses this potential threat.

I'll be continuing to monitor it and hope it turns north a bit!!


Thank you again, everything you've all said has been unbelieveably informative for me as a traveler and as someone who grew up in an area where weather is constantly watched (Norman, Ok).

Keep it up.

Welocme! Keep checking back. We'll keep you informed. No question goes unanswered here.

[HurricaneMaster_PR]

GFS 18Z 84 hrs



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[ROCK]

good ridging also Luis....