Howdy sir...I think the NHC is on to something here as well...however, if this system does not pick up forward speed soon and/or gain some latitude soon, I think the weakness to the north of the system might not be enough to pull it north and out to sea...this is not the time of year for weaknesses to be developing off the US east coast and I think maybe it will be around for a while...looking at the latest IR imagery, Bret appears to be holding his own despite the dry air around him due to the lack of shear.
If there were more shear, then I would say the dry air could be the death knell, but I think he should be able to fight it off without a problem this go around...good to see you folks are still around
gatorcane wrote:Still looks like it is dropping South to me, though the global models do forecast this. The farther south it goes, the less likely it will get pulled NE out to sea.
I keep looking at the huge 500MB ridge in the Cental U.S. It will slide to the east and weaken but position itself near the Carolinas by day 5.
Should Brett still be around, it won't head to to the N.E. But the NHC is forecasting it gets far enough NE by then so that it is not blocked.
I like the NHC forecast though, and think that is where it will ultimately end up.
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