ATL: IRENE - Models

[PTPatrick]

agreed...Hopefully USAir will book me on a different airline to get to Europe. The way things are shaping up, my flight is supposed to arrive in Philly at 4:00. I doubt it would get there, so maybe I have a hope of being rerouted from Denver. My Philly-Zurich flight is at 6:00 sunday evening :-/

[PTPatrick]

It is as if Joe Bastardi drew the Euro!!!

Good thing this is 105hrs out and things will change, what a disaster.

Well, it looks like it barely shows high TS force...offshore...mind you by the time it gets to NJ, so thats nothing the NE cant handle.

[SEASON_CANCELED]

Somebody gets whacked

[Riptide]

It is as if Joe Bastardi drew the Euro!!!

Good thing this is 105hrs out and things will change, what a disaster.

Well, it looks like it barely shows high TS force...offshore...mind you by the time it gets to NJ, so thats nothing the NE cant handle.

The wind speed is in knots. I can assure you that the 12z euro would wreck the East Coast.

[Aric Dunn]

So all in all with the 12z guidance has been a majority west shift.. pretty decent one too.

http://flhurricane.com/modelanimator.ph ... 1&title=09 last 2 or 3 frames .

[xironman]

It is as if Joe Bastardi drew the Euro!!!

Good thing this is 105hrs out and things will change, what a disaster.


Well, it looks like it barely shows high TS force...offshore...mind you by the time it gets to NJ, so thats nothing the NE cant handle.

Yeah, but I don't know how well this Wunderground map works for winds (think the pressure is at >960), and the storm has been pushing water up since OBX and look at the approach to NY harbor for funneling.


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[ncweatherwizard]

What does that mean "going negative"

Thank you!
Debbie

It means that the trough tilts from northwest to southeast (usually it tilts from northeast to southwest). This often occurs when the low pressure system associated with the mid-latitude trough has matured. I don't see this happening in the current model runs.

What would a negative or almost negative upper level trough do to Irene's track?

Also, the ECMWF through 96 hours looks almost identical to the last two runs...its being quite consistent with a track over the extreme outer banks, then northward just along the east coast.

It is still a storm coming up the coast, a negative tilt may pull it in.

No rule of thumb here. The effect of any trough on a TC track depends on the relative locations of the cyclone and the trough.

[shaggy]

I am sitting in east central NC and a 50 mile west shift in track brings the eye just 30-50 miles east of me putting me either in the edge of the eye or just outside it. Small shifts still means a huge difference in eastern NC.

[sicktght311]

from DT: on euro

Wxrisk.com
‎***12Z EURO ALERT... European Models SLOWS Irene approach to the coast down and is ALSO closer to the coast Morwe west ... Goes over HATTERAS due North CRUSHING HIT to VA eastern shore and Lower MD eastern shore ... OCEAN CITY MD gets really wiped flat. Irene turns DUE NORTH up the 75 west long line

Yes, the high res of the 12z Euro made me throw-up a little in my throat. That is a terrible run for the East Coast!

Wow. Sitting here on central Long Island, that makes me have a lump in my throat. I dunno, all these easterly trends this morning had me a little happier, but i kinda had a feeling it would start trending back west. This euro run woudl be a disaster for LI. Half of our barrier island stretch (fire island) would become an inlet. Not to mention any tidal piling and storm surge issues that NYC and brooklyn could potentially have

[hsvwx]

For those who don't think that would have major implications along the East Coast, that is a 936 mb low sitting off the Delaware Coast late Sunday Morning. Those areas have not experienced a storm of this magnitude in a long time. For those who have been to Ocean MD, it floods when storms are hundreds of miles off the coast. Couldn't imagine what it would do to that island if it rides right along the coast, along with the rest of the mid-Atlantic coast.

[sandyb]

I am sitting in east central NC and a 50 mile west shift in track brings the eye just 30-50 miles east of me putting me either in the edge of the eye or just outside it. Small shifts still means a huge difference in eastern NC.

does anyone think it will shift west enough for this to affect us i live closer to atlantic beach like 15 miles from it but far away from the outer banks so what should we expect here, i know a lot of talk is going on now about up north but we are 1st impact so i wish someone would keep us in mind too we could get the worst of Irene before NY etc

[Raebie]

You'll get plenty of commentary starting around Friday, I'm sure.

[sicktght311]

I am sitting in east central NC and a 50 mile west shift in track brings the eye just 30-50 miles east of me putting me either in the edge of the eye or just outside it. Small shifts still means a huge difference in eastern NC.

does anyone think it will shift west enough for this to affect us i live closer to atlantic beach like 15 miles from it but far away from the outer banks so what should we expect here, i know a lot of talk is going on now about up north but we are 1st impact so i wish someone would keep us in mind too we could get the worst of Irene before NY etc

I'd be on VERY close watch regardless. Even if it just brushes NC you can still see some TS conditions. Be very careful, plan accordingly. Plan as if its going to hit, hope it doesnt.

[HurrMark]

Well, all in all, some models shifted west...but on the flip side, some shifted east, so in my opinion, all this probably means is that the eastward shifts have stopped for the time being. Whether a westward shift will occur will probably have to wait...

[Aric Dunn]

Well, all in all, some models shifted west...but on the flip side, some shifted east, so in my opinion, all this probably means is that the eastward shifts have stopped for the time being. Whether a westward shift will occur will probably have to wait...

actually most models shifted west. couple slightly east..

last 3 images..

http://flhurricane.com/modelanimator.ph ... 1&title=09

[clfenwi]

View of 12Z Euro, HWRF, GFDL, and GFS at 96h



Loop

[ozonepete]

Well, all in all, some models shifted west...but on the flip side, some shifted east, so in my opinion, all this probably means is that the eastward shifts have stopped for the time being. Whether a westward shift will occur will probably have to wait...

I agree we need to wait. You can't start having decent confidence until it's 3 days away for your area. So for the northeast, the earliest you can start trusting the forecast is tomorrow morning/afternoon. I want to wait for the 12Z global runs tomorrow, which we won't see til around 11:30AM EDT. But the 00Z runs tonight, which we'll see around 11:30PM are very useful since you can see if the trend to the west is continuing or not.

[sandyb]

Well, all in all, some models shifted west...but on the flip side, some shifted east, so in my opinion, all this probably means is that the eastward shifts have stopped for the time being. Whether a westward shift will occur will probably have to wait...

actually most models shifted west. couple slightly east..

last 3 images..

http://flhurricane.com/modelanimator.ph ... 1&title=09

are these west shifts after it passes NC or do they include NC?

[hurricaneCW]

From those models, it looks like Irene at least doubles her current size. Even if Irene stays more offshore, like the gfs track, the mid-atlantic coast from the Delmarva north is expected to get heavy rains from a PRE event.

[xironman]

What does that mean "going negative"

Thank you!
Debbie

It means that the trough tilts from northwest to southeast (usually it tilts from northeast to southwest). This often occurs when the low pressure system associated with the mid-latitude trough has matured. I don't see this happening in the current model runs.

What would a negative or almost negative upper level trough do to Irene's track?

Also, the ECMWF through 96 hours looks almost identical to the last two runs...its being quite consistent with a track over the extreme outer banks, then northward just along the east coast.

It is still a storm coming up the coast, a negative tilt may pull it in.

No rule of thumb here. The effect of any trough on a TC track depends on the relative locations of the cyclone and the trough.

That's why your a pro and I am a monkey

I appreciate the lesson.