ATL: OPHELIA - Remnants - Discussion

[Gustywind]

24/0545 UTC 16.6N 54.5W T2.0/2.0 OPHELIA

[wxman57]

I can't find any LLC this morning. Thought it might be under that southern "blob" of convection but that died out and there's nothing underneath. Could be some remnant LLC near 17.5N/55.8W.

[Macrocane]

In my amateur opinion Ophelia is again fighting the shear this morning, and looking at the first visibles I do see a LLC (possibly weak but closed) and it has been pulled back under the convection.

[wxman57]

Shear will come and go the next 2 days, sometimes knocking Ophelia down to nearly a wave, sometimes allowing 40-45kt winds. No threat to the NE Caribbean, though.

[painkillerr]

OPHELIA is still out there but inconsequential. When there are no possibilities of landfall... these forums are dead quiet!!

[Florida1118]

OPHELIA is still out there but inconsequential. When there are no possibilities of landfall... these forums are dead quiet!!

We've talked about this many times before on various different storms. I am following them, as Im sure many are, but theres just nothing to post about...A weak sheared TS is very common this year, It would be like posting about rain in seattle IMO. Not much has changed with her, shes a cut and past of Maria.

[painkillerr]

OPHELIA is still out there but inconsequential. When there are no possibilities of landfall... these forums are dead quiet!!

We've talked about this many times before on various different storms. I am following them, as Im sure many are, but theres just nothing to post about...A weak sheared TS is very common this year, It would be like posting about rain in seattle IMO. Not much has changed with her, shes a cut and past of Maria.

I agree. No danger no fun!

[tobol.7uno]

The 8am runs I never posted...

[Gustywind]

000
WTNT31 KNHC 241455
TCPAT1

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM OPHELIA ADVISORY NUMBER 15
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL162011
1100 AM AST SAT SEP 24 2011

...OPHELIA CONTINUES MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...17.8N 56.0W
ABOUT 385 MI...620 KM E OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 310 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES

[Gustywind]

Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------


000
AXNT20 KNHC 241755
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT SAT SEP 24 2011

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1715 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

TROPICAL STORM OPHELIA IS CENTERED NEAR 17.8N 56.0W AT 24/1500
UTC OR ABOUT 335 NM E OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS MOVING NW AT 11 KT.
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1006 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WIND SPEED IS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT. PLEASE SEE LATEST NHC
FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT1/WTNT21 KNHC
FOR MORE DETAILS. CONVECTION HAS BEGUN TO REDEVELOP NEAR THE
CENTER OF OPHELIA. CURRENTLY NUMEROUS STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM
16N-17N BETWEEN 52W-54W...AND FROM 17N-21N BETWEEN 52W-56W.
SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 12N-14N BETWEEN
53W-56W...AND FROM 16N-21N BETWEEN 56W-58W.

[Gustywind]

24/1745 UTC 18.2N 56.7W T2.0/2.0 OPHELIA

[cycloneye]

SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...17.9N 57.4W
ABOUT 295 MI...475 KM E OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 295 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES

[wxman57]

40 kts seems quite generous, considering the plane couldn't find an LLC much less TS winds. That dropsonde with the 40kt wind that they mentioned as the reason for the 40kt winds on this advisory was at 10Z, almost 12 hours ago.

[Dean4Storms]

The remnants could get further west, might need to watch this down the road!!!!

[wxman57]

The remnants could get further west, might need to watch this down the road!!!!

Probably not much farther west. That deep trof along the East Coast early next week will mean SW-W winds at all levels from Cuba to New England and well offshore. Should keep what's left of Ophelia (or maybe it will survive the shear and become a real TS?) east of the Bahamas.

[cycloneye]

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM OPHELIA ADVISORY NUMBER 17
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL162011
1100 PM AST SAT SEP 24 2011

...OPHELIA STRUGGLING TO SURVIVE AS A TROPICAL CYCLONE...


SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...18.3N 58.4W
ABOUT 310 MI...495 KM E OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 295 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES

[Gustywind]

000
WTNT31 KNHC 250841
TCPAT1

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM OPHELIA ADVISORY NUMBER 18
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL162011
500 AM AST SUN SEP 25 2011

...OPHELIA BARELY A TROPICAL CYCLONE...


SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...18.4N 59.5W
ABOUT 235 MI...380 KM E OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1008 MB...29.77 INCHES

[Gustywind]

Loop of sheared TS Ophelia

[Gustywind]

25/0545 UTC 18.3N 59.0W TOO WEAK OPHELIA -- Atlantic

[wxman57]

000
WTNT31 KNHC 250841
TCPAT1

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM OPHELIA ADVISORY NUMBER 18
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL162011
500 AM AST SUN SEP 25 2011

...OPHELIA BARELY A TROPICAL CYCLONE...


SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...18.4N 59.5W
ABOUT 235 MI...380 KM E OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1008 MB...29.77 INCHES

That should read "Ophelia NOT a Tropical Storm". It's just a remnant low now. Really - would something that looks as bad as this ever be upgraded to a TS? Oh, forgot about Jose...

I'd still like to see an independent group totally separated from the NHC with the sole responsibility of storm classification. What would they classify Ophelia as over the past 24 hours?

Closed circulation: barely
Max sustained winds (as measured by recon yesterday): 25-30 kts
Organized convection near center: No
Current Satellite estimate: Too weak to classify
Classification = remnant low